Tony Vargas
Legend
Only fair thing to do, really, as that's the point at which 5e is supposed to deliver on the 'modularity' and 'inclusiveness' promises made when "Next" was announced.-Some number of people are waiting for the DMG to form an opinion
I don't see it. Organized play is looking to be a bit more, well, organized - less casual - true, but that's about it. How does 'rub people the wrong way over time' lead to '/early/ player loss?'This really could go either way. I also suspect that more than any other edition, 5th edition runs the risk of early player loss. They seem to have been designing around Organized Play, and made some decisions that over time could rub people the wrong way, so it is possible that we'll see in a year or so a lot of "I liked it at first but...
IMHO, 5e's presentation, long lead-in, more modest release pace are all in it's favor. It's had 2 years to build up momentum, an early-adopter portion of the fanbase starved of new material for that whole time, and only has to make good sales on it's 3 core books to declare 'success.' It doesn't have anything riding on extras like project morningstar, the way 4e had on the DDI or VTT, it doesn't have to radically out-perform the industry to prove it's worth independent of WotC's consistent CCG cashflow.
The only real challenge is Pathfinder, and that hinges on the form of the OGL this time around - and how not-4e 5e can be. AFAICT, 5e out-not-4e's even Pathfinder, the game that made it's fortune on being not 4e.