D&D is dying by the hour

[morbiczer]

Sometimes I think the 3rd party publishers just plant posts on forums for their own ends. Yet again, it's the third party argument, yet I have never seen anyone who loves third party materials (and I know many gamers) aside from these doomsday posts and 4E naysayers. I will never buy a 3rd party product anyway because they are invariably terrible, so honestly, I encourage Wizards to keep D&D free from third parties.

Funniest post in a long time.

 

[Charwoman Gene]

Sometimes I think the 3rd party publishers just plant posts on forums for their own ends. Yet again, it's the third party argument, yet I have never seen anyone who loves third party materials (and I know many gamers) aside from these doomsday posts and 4E naysayers. I will never buy a 3rd party product anyway because they are invariably terrible, so honestly, I encourage Wizards to keep D&D free from third parties.

Yeah that "Erik Mona" and that "IuzTheEvil" do seem awfully Paizo skewed. PLANTS!!!

 

[Jack99]

Well - At least I got a partial explanation from Wiz. there. Thank you for that.

As for the many people who keeps saying that Paizo going their own ways is not a "blow" Wizards, I think you are wrong. Wizards might still be the leader when it comes to D&D, but Paizo has surely cut some good chunks off the cake. When you look at various discussion boards Paizo gets almost as much attention as 4th Edition. Their Pathfinder series has been an overwhelming success, with the issues being sold out as we speak.

In 3rd edition we did have various publishers, but none of them really got that much attention from non-hardcore gaming crowd. Since last GenCon and Pathfinder I believe this to have changed. It seems to me that Paizo have continued taking shares from WoTC, and with their announcement of their own RPG they are getting even more, since they will now be an option for the disgruntled 3rd edition players that would have eventually moved to 4th ed.
If you look at the publishing schedule of Paizo and compare it to Wizards, Paizo is not just a "nobody" to WoTC. Heck I bet they have produced more high-quality material in the last year than Wizards. While Wiz puts out a book a month, Paizo have several series of books being published. This wouldn't be possible unless people kept bying their stuff. So I say Paizo is growing, and Wizards should take notice when they don't follow their lead.
Dont get me wrong here: I wouldn't mind Paizo going 4th edition, as I like the idea of being able to play online when I dont have any gaming friends around, however with the GLS not coming out I guess it was simply not an option.

I could have sworn we have been over this at least a gazillion times.

Anyway.
Paizo has created some high-quality adventures and some great fluff. However, creating adventures and fluff is not the same as creating a great system, so will they be able to make Pathfinder a great game, that will appeal to all but their hardcore fans? That remains to be seen.

There is about 5.5 million people who play DND worldwide (last figure I have heard)

Pathfinder Alpha has been downloaded by more than 10.000 (last figure we have gotten afaik). While this is more than Mr. Mona had hoped for (at least he made it sound as if he was very pleased by said number) 10.000 downloads on a free rules-system doesn't sound like it will be a system that even makes a dent into WoTC sales. Lots of people who downloaded it, did it out of curiosity, but curiosity won't pay the bills, come august (or whenever) 2009.

Don't get me wrong. I like Paizo, I love their products, and their customer business is the best I have ever experienced in my 30-odd years of life. I was subscribing to both the Pathfinder series and to their Game-Mastery Modules until they decided to not wait for the GSL (I don't blame them for that either, since it's a business after all, Mr. Mona can't gamble with the jobs of 22 people).

I want Paizo to succeed, if only so that they can produce some top notch 4e modules, but also because they are helping keep some people who otherwise would have stopped playing (this happens with every edition change). But that doesn't change the fact that most people who play DND have very little clue about Paizo (mostly because they don't spend huge amount of their time on boards like this one) and on a larger scale, Paizo's number of customers is relatively insignificant.

Of course, I could be all wrong, and due to the success of Pathfinder, Paizo will be buying Hasbro in 2010....

Cheers

 

[Charwoman Gene]

FWIW.

Not everyone thinks Paizo is good at fluff or adventures, or more accurate in my case, likes the feel of their fluff or adventures.

 

[Frawan]

I don't recall Paizo or WotC passing around sales figures for their products. Attempting to extrapolate Paizo's market importance by what you see on hobbyist bulletin boards is a pastime one cut less useful than consulting sheep guts, because the sheep guts won't give you an actively wrong impression.

Paizo has created some high-quality adventures and some great fluff. However, creating adventures and fluff is not the same as creating a great system, so will they be able to make Pathfinder a great game, that will appeal to all but their hardcore fans? That remains to be seen.

There is about 5.5 million people who play DND worldwide (last figure I have heard)

Pathfinder Alpha has been downloaded by more than 10.000 (last figure we have gotten afaik). While this is more than Mr. Mona had hoped for (at least he made it sound as if he was very pleased by said number) 10.000 downloads on a free rules-system doesn't sound like it will be a system that even makes a dent into WoTC sales. Lots of people who downloaded it, did it out of curiosity, but curiosity won't pay the bills, come august (or whenever) 2009.

Well - If you would have read the rest of my post this is not just a fancy extrapolation, but also something to do with an analysis of the amounts of quality products being produced, and the rate at which they are sold out.

You say that 5.5 play D&D. Well - how many of them are actually regular players that have purchased a single WoTC book within say the last two years? Much less. Since I am book retailer I have access to one of the biggest book-distributors in the US (i.e. the one selling books to retailers). Lets look at some figures on how many books have been pre-ordered through their system:

The Gift-set:
Qty on Order
with Publisher 600
Total Demand during the last 30 days 7

PHB:
Qty on Order
with Publisher 1500
Total Demand during the last 30 days 26

DMG:
Total: 1200
Last 30 days: 18

MM: 2200
Last 30 days: 17

If you add this up you are FAR AWAY from 5.5 million or even something remotely close to that. I am aware that this distributor is not the only way WoTC gets their books out, but it is a least some tangible figures.

Yes- they might sell say 100.000 copies of the new 4th ed. books.
Paizo is still an underdog, but their piece of the cake would cetainly be visible and not merely a "dent".

 

[Belphanior]

Paizo is still an underdog, but their piece of the cake would cetainly be visible and not merely a "dent".

You are now assuming 10.000 alpha-downloads will also lead to 10.000 Pathfinder RPG sales. I refer you to my post above, #9 in the thread, as to why I don't believe this will be the case.

 

[mach1.9pants]

However, the core set (for example) is doing pretty well at Amazon

Amazon.com Sales Rank: #32 in Books (See Bestsellers in Books)

Popular in these categories: (What's this?)
#1 in Books > Entertainment > Puzzles & Games > Role Playing & Fantasy
#1 in Books > Science Fiction & Fantasy > Gaming > Dungeons & Dragons

Just ahead of someone called 'Barrack Obama' ('The Audacity of Hope' must be some sort of self help book, I guess), just behind Julie Andrews & the latest John Grisham.
Not bad IMO; However the PHB is about 1800th.

Edit: I am in no way going to play pathfinder (I have my own house-ruled 3.5E, thanks very much) but I still DLed the freebie to nick any ideas I fancied for my 3E. I will do this with any freebie DL, so it is not 10,000 possible sales it is 9,999....or maybe a bit less.

 

[Frawan]

You are now assuming 10.000 alpha-downloads will also lead to 10.000 Pathfinder RPG sales. I refer you to my post above, #9 in the thread, as to why I don't believe this will be the case.

Actually I expect it to be bigger. Even if WoTC had been the ones putting out "alpha" rules, I would expect more people to eventually buy the final product. Not everyone are interested in looking at alpha or beta stuff, just as not everyone downloading the alpha will be buying. If you compare it to alpha and beta-tests in MMO's the result is the same: Did blizzards have 10 million in their open beta for WoW? Not even close. Do they have 10 million subscribers today? Yes.
So 10.000 alpha downloads could certainly end up meaning 20.000 hardcopies sold, even though only say ½ of the alpha-downloaders will buy the books. Again: The "hardcore" gamers are only a minority when it comes to the gaming market in total, and the copies sold at gaming and book-stores to "casual" players probably account for just as many sold copies.

 

[Maggan]

Their Pathfinder series has been an overwhelming success, with the issues being sold out as we speak.

While I don't doubt that Pathfinder has been a success for Paizo (otherwise they wouldn't announce the Pathfinder RPG), basing a theory on the premise of an RPG book selling out is precarious, unless we know the actual number of books printed.

When WotC says they're sold out of a product, that means very different sales numbers than if Paizo says they're sold out, or if Game Compamy X are sold out.

For WotC that could mean 100.000. For Paizo 10.000. For Game Company X 1.000. Me me, 10 (if I were publishing anything for sale, that is).

We just don't know how successful a product is just by it selling out, the only thing we know is that the publisher claims to have sold the number of copies he printed. And that number can be anything from 100 to 100 000, or something else entirely.

/M

 

[Jack99]

Yes- they might sell say 100.000 copies of the new 4th ed. books.

And you are a book retailer? Aha. Interesting.

Cheers,