D&D Movie/TV D&D Movie Hit or Flop?

[OB1]

Relevant article:

Long Range Box Office Forecast: Can Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves Reverse the Franchise’s Prior Big Screen Missteps? - Boxoffice

This week's report takes an early look at the final major studio release of a busy March, Paramount and Hasbro's Dungeons & Dragon: Honor Among Thieves.

www.boxofficepro.com

Fascinating, though I wonder about two of their 'con' assumptions.
1. I can't imagine the 2000 film will have much of an impact on how DaD HAT performs. 5e has brought in millions of players who weren't even born when that film came out.
2. I'm not sure this will be a male driven film, both because of the number of women playing the game now, and because of the cast.

Finally, if the film is a hit at SXSW next week, that should help generate a lot of social media buzz around it.

 

[Snarf Zagyg]

Relevant article:

Long Range Box Office Forecast: Can Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves Reverse the Franchise’s Prior Big Screen Missteps? - Boxoffice

This week's report takes an early look at the final major studio release of a busy March, Paramount and Hasbro's Dungeons & Dragon: Honor Among Thieves.

www.boxofficepro.com

Oof. Those are ... dangerous ... tracking numbers given the budget and marketing & distribution. Also among the lowest I've seen tossed around.

Usually the numbers you see a week from opening are pretty reliable, so we should check back in another three weeks.

 

[Deset Gled]

Oof. Those are ... dangerous ... tracking numbers given the budget and marketing & distribution. Also among the lowest I've seen tossed around.

Usually the numbers you see a week from opening are pretty reliable, so we should check back in another three weeks.

Gold Derby was projecting numbers similar to that about two weeks ago: March 2023 box office preview: 5 franchise sequels should give the month a healthy boost

 

[mamba]

Relevant article:

Long Range Box Office Forecast: Can Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves Reverse the Franchise’s Prior Big Screen Missteps? - Boxoffice

This week's report takes an early look at the final major studio release of a busy March, Paramount and Hasbro's Dungeons & Dragon: Honor Among Thieves.

www.boxofficepro.com

that is… pretty bad as far as I can tell

 

[Clint_L]

This is a new franchise without a super bankable star, so it was never likely to be a big opening. Hopefully it will be really good and that will give it legs. The comparison to Jumanji doesn't make much sense to me since that film had the Rock and a much stronger supporting cast (in terms of box office) and was built upon a beloved predecessor.

 

[mamba]

This is a new franchise without a super bankable star, so it was never likely to be a big opening.

I am more arguing from a ‘you have to make x % on opening weekend to have a chance of turning a profit’ perspective, and 8-10% sounds like too low a number to get there, unless you manage to keep on going and avoid the steep dropoff

The comparison to Jumanji doesn't make much sense to me since that film had the Rock and a much stronger supporting cast (in terms of box office) and was built upon a beloved predecessor.

I assume they chose it because they are both based on games, as to Jumanji itself, being compared to that is not an endorsement in my book.. even being compared favorably is damning with faint praise

 

[OB1]

Oof. Those are ... dangerous ... tracking numbers given the budget and marketing & distribution. Also among the lowest I've seen tossed around.

Usually the numbers you see a week from opening are pretty reliable, so we should check back in another three weeks.

Yeah, those numbers would be disastarous if they hold. The film really may hinge on how it's received at the SXSW festival.

I'm starting to wonder if Captain America: The First Avenger may be a good comp for how this movie performs ($65M open, $370 worldwide total). It too had a terrible un-related movie that bombed 20ish years earlier (Roger Corman's Captain America) and didn't have a bankable star but did have the (then budding) Marvel brand and great word of mouth.

 

[Zardnaar]

Yeah, those numbers would be disastarous if they hold. The film really may hinge on how it's received at the SXSW festival.

I'm starting to wonder if Captain America: The First Avenger may be a good comp for how this movie performs ($65M open, $370 worldwide total). It too had a terrible un-related earlier movie that bombed 20ish years earlier (Roger Corman's Captain America) didn't have a bankable star but did have the (then budding) Marvel brand and great word of mouth.

And there's a good chance the numbers coming in could be lower.
I think people over estimated tge appeal of tge movie. Objectively it's hot three things against it.

1. March opening.
2. Lack of big stars
3. Lack of franchise or successful movies to tie to.

Not insurmountable.

 

[Clint_L]

I think it needs to be pointed out that those are domestic projections only. WW box office will be significantly higher. However, the return on foreign box office is much lower than the return on domestic.

 

[Zardnaar]

I think it needs to be pointed out that those are domestic projections only. WW box office will be significantly higher. However, the return on foreign box office is much lower than the return on domestic.

I think one of the projections was total box office.

When I started the thread I thought it was a 90-100 million dollar movie, unknown marketing budget and no projections.
On new information it's trending towards a flop unless it has a tiny marketing budget or over performs its projections.

If it has a 50 million marketing budget it's tending towards break even based on projections which will probably be revised before release (up or down idk