D&D Movie/TV DADHAT hits $80,856,963 box office

[Ralif Redhammer]

I wonder how it did in Faerun.

If Dragon magazine was still going, I guarantee there would be a Wizards Three article where Ed Greenwood took Elminster, Mordenkainen, and Dalamar to the movie theater to see it.

 

[Snarf Zagyg]

If Dragon magazine was still going, I guarantee there would be a Wizards Three article where Ed Greenwood took Elminster, Mordenkainen, and Dalamar to the movie theater to see it.

So what you're saying is the death of Dragon Magazine isn't a bad thing.

 

[GreyLord]

I still have not seen it, but good on them. See how they do against Mario this week and what the drop off will be. What will they need to be worth making another movie? I'm thinking over 200m and they will come up with something with the same cast or most of the same cast.

I'm hoping it does well.

What I've seen from reviews is Mario is horrible. IF that holds true, I could see a strong surge of Mario but then an extremely sharp drop off after that. A drop off for Mario could be good for D&D: HAT.

 

[Kinematics]

Side note for some countries the movie is opening today for the first time.

For the countries with data, that only applies to Slovakia, and it only made $138,298, so that's not a major factor in this update.

The top 5 non-US markets (with gross sales over $2 million each: China, UK, Mexico, Australia, and Germany) add up to $18,686,210, which is almost exactly half of the entire non-US sales. There's no indication that this will shift in any substantial way.

What will they need to be worth making another movie? I'm thinking over 200m and they will come up with something with the same cast or most of the same cast.

Based on initial data, and sales patterns based on first day and first weekend results, plus a middling-to-decent reception, domestic sales should land between $130 and $150 million (not counting the Mario movie as a potential spoiler). *

With domestic being a bit more than half of worldwide, worldwide sales would then be expected to be around $260 to $300 million. With a budget of $150 million, that basically puts it at the break-even point (or less; some use 2.5x instead of 2x, which would want to hit $375 million).

Yeah, $200 million domestic/$400 million worldwide would probably be needed for it to be considered solidly profitable. Seems very unlikely.

I wouldn't be optimistic about a break-even movie getting a sequel, though not being a loss (maybe) means it may still be worth continuing the series in the hopes of building an audience (given Hasbro's hopes for monetizing the brand). It depends on how much they're willing to use this as a loss-leader for building a franchise.

Spoiler: *Analysis stuff

* Based on my own analysis of movie revenue patterns, an average movie will get 10x the opening Friday, or 3.5x the opening weekend, in final revenue. Low end to high end rating ranges (ie: low-rated films get a lower multiplier, and highly-rated films get a higher multiplier) look roughly like 5x–15x of Friday, or 2x–5x of the opening weekend. There are a few outliers (such as Titanic, or Avatar) where these ratios don't work, but the D&D movie does not appear to be one of those.

This analysis was originally done to see if there was a way to get an "objective" rating for a film based on the ratio between its hype (how much it earned in the opening days) and its long-term sales. There does appear to be a decent correlation for most films, though it doesn't handle edge cases very well.

Edit: I used IMDB ratings for the comparison, not Rotten Tomatoes.

 

[LuisCarlos17f]

They aren't going to lose money, and now the brand is more famous than thanks Stranger Things or the 80's cartoons. I guess in a month they are going to recover the investment. And the promotion expenses aren't only for this movie, but the complete brand.

And there are opened doors for other projects, for example horror movies linked with Ravenloft, and collabs with videogames.

 

[Ralif Redhammer]

So what you're saying is the death of Dragon Magazine isn't a bad thing.

As much as I miss Dragon magazine, not every column was a winner. I didn't mind The Wizards Three back then, but I haven't read one of those articles in a very long time.

 

[Zardnaar]

They aren't going to lose money, and now the brand is more famous than thanks Stranger Things or the 80's cartoons. I guess in a month they are going to recover the investment. And the promotion expenses aren't only for this movie, but the complete brand.

And there are opened doors for other projects, for example horror movies linked with Ravenloft, and collabs with videogames.

It's projected to lose 40% this weekend.

That means 70 million is going to become 40. Then it will decline again the following week.

Needs to hit somewhere north of 300 million to break even maybe as high as 375-450.

Basically it's not looking good.

 

[Whizbang Dustyboots]

It's projected to lose 40% this weekend.

That means 70 million is going to become 40. Then it will decline again the following week.

Needs to hit somewhere north of 300 million to break even maybe as high as 375-450.

Basically it's not looking good.

It's a shame they're not going to sell it on DVD, Blu-Ray or digital, or sell the streaming rights (which typically include ongoing payments) or have merchandising that plays into their decisions.

 

[Zardnaar]

It's a shame they're not going to sell it on DVD, Blu-Ray or digital, or sell the streaming rights (which typically include ongoing payments) or have merchandising that plays into their decisions.

They will but the movie seems to be in track for around 200 million.

DVDs are fairly marginal these days. They've dwindled to almost nothing.

Unlikely they'll get 100+ million via streaming. If your movie flops at the box office you're not getting top dollar for streaming.

That's assuming Paramount hasn't got streaming rights already for funding half the movie.

They're heading towards a 100-150 million dunking on current numbers. Streaming and renting isn't gonna cover that.

 

[Whizbang Dustyboots]

That's assuming Paramount hasn't got streaming rights already for funding half the movie.

This has already been explained to you, multiple times. Different components of a corporation don't get the rights for free. They do have to pay each other.

For some reason, you seem really invested in a made-up scenario of how this works, no matter how many times people explain to you that you appear to be intentionally using an extremely dated model and cherry picking data to support it.

This is a weird, dumb hill to die on, my dude.