Design and Development: Monsters

[Jack99]

That's an odd point of view, don't you think? Can it not be good in its own right?

Sure, it could. If, as it has been pointed out, it wasn't just a rehash of what we have already paid for, in Worlds and Monsters.

No. "Be disappointed based on your own expectations" is ENworlds new motto since 4e launched. It seems.

Seriously, what is the point of your comment? Should I get disappointed based on someone else's expectations?

 

[arscott]

I know that statistics can produce some pretty strange results, but I still don't get where 25-33-50-100 comes from.
When the question is "how high is the chance that the breath weapon recharges at this round", then the chance is 25% each round as there is a 25% chance for any result on a d4 (recharge after 1 round? 25%, recharge after 2 rounds? 25% And so on).

When the question is "How high is the chance that the breath weapon has recharged by now?" you get a 25-50-75-100 result.
Maybe the real question was "How high is the chance that the breath weapon is usable this turn?" (although I don't read it that way) which figures in the chance of "If the breath weapon recharged on turn 1, how high is the chance that the dragon can breath on turn 2" and I am too lazy to calculate that. But I don't think that this is the correct question because then the 100% chance on the 4th round wouldn't make sense as it is possible that the dragon can not breath on turn 4 (for example when it breathed on round 3 and rolled a 2).

Assuming the dragon breathes every round it can, its chance of breathing on any given round is as follows:
[SBLOCK]Round 1: 100.0%%
Round 2: 25.0%
Round 3: 31.3%
Round 4: 39.1%
Round 5: 48.8%
Round 6: 36.0%
Round 7: 38.8%
Round 8: 40.7%
Round 9: 41.1%
Round 10: 39.1%
...[/SBLOCK]
You'll notice it converges to 40%, the number given in the article.

Math:
[SBLOCK]P(N) is the probability of the dragon breathing on round N, where:

P(1) = 1
A(1) = 0
B(1) = 0
C(1) = 0

P(N) = A(N-1)+.25P(N-1)
A(N) = B(N-1)+.25P(N-1)
B(N) = C(N-1)+.25P(N-1)
C(N) = .25P(N-1)[/SBLOCK]

 

[Hussar]

Sure, it could. If, as it has been pointed out, it wasn't just a rehash of what we have already paid for, in Worlds and Monsters.


Seriously, what is the point of your comment? Should I get disappointed based on someone else's expectations?

I believe the point would be to judge an article without having preconceived expectations. Judging something because it was different from what you expected, when you had no real reason to have any expectations, might be considered unfair.

 

[WhatGravitas]

Hmm... for an article, it looked a bit incoherent - it looks more like a web-article or a blog-style thing, not like an article in a print magazine, which Dragon seems to emulate. They have done better.

Cheers, LT.

 

[Pseudopsyche]

So, here is what baffles me. Where did Peter (or Jonathan Tweet for that matter) come up with the 25%, 33%, 50%, and 100% numbers? A roll of 1d4 is pretty straightforward mathematically. There's a 25% chance of rolling a 1. There is a 50% chance of rolling a 1 or a 2. There's a 75% chance of rolling a 1, 2, or 3. There's a 100% chance of rolling a 1, 2, 3, or 4. Am I missing something here?

Suppose you are playing a character fighting a 3E dragon that has just used its breath weapon on you. You know its breath weapon will recharge in 1d4 rounds. Immediately after attacking, the DM rolls a d4 in secret. It's either a 1, 2, 3, or 4.

In the first round after the initial attack, what is your belief about the availability of the breath weapon to the dragon? It's available on an outcome of 1 on the d4, so 25%. Suppose the dragon doesn't use its breath weapon this round, and you assume that it would have had it recharged, so you know the DM didn't roll a 1. So he rolled either a 2, 3, or 4.

In the second round after the initial attack, the breath weapon is available if the DM rolled a 2 instead of a 3 or 4, so 33%. In the third round, the breath weapon is available if the DM rolled a 3 instead of a 4, so 50%. If the dragon hasn't used its breath weapon by the fourth round, you know it's coming with 100% certainty.

If you're fighting a 4E dragon, you have a static 33% chance every round of facing the breath weapon, period. (And the DM doesn't have to do any bookkeeping for it.)

 

[Imaro]

If you're fighting a 4E dragon, you have a static 33% chance every round of facing the breath weapon, period. (And the DM doesn't have to do any bookkeeping for it.)

I don't get this sentiment, how is tracking whether the dragon recharged or not round per round... equate to the "DM doesn't have to do any bookkeeing for it"...it's still bookkeeping to not whether it did or didn't make the recharge and you have to remember to roll every round it doesn't. I'm not even sure if this is any simpler or easier than roll once and remember number.

 

[malraux]

I don't get this sentiment, how is tracking whether the dragon recharged or not round per round... equate to the "DM doesn't have to do any bookkeeing for it"...it's still bookkeeping to not whether it did or didn't make the recharge and you have to remember to roll every round it doesn't. I'm not even sure if this is any simpler or easier than roll once and remember number.

I find personally that tracking the round number is a pain. Having to remember that a monster in round 2 has an effect that lasts till round 4 is a major pain for me. OTOH, the binary nature of 4e statuses (recharged or not, on fire or not, etc) is a bit easier to track.

 

[TerraDave]

It was a typical Design and Development article...which did start as a web feature.

But ya, something a little more "forward looking" could have been more exciting. But technically...the game has not been out that long...

 

[radferth]

It would be easier if you are DM, the dragon's turn comes up, and you roll right then and breath if it comes up as available. If, for some tactical reason, you don't breath even though it recharges, then it is bookkeeping. I prefer a "every x rounds" and maybe y times per day, but that's just personal taste.

 

[Pseudopsyche]

I don't get this sentiment, how is tracking whether the dragon recharged or not round per round... equate to the "DM doesn't have to do any bookkeeing for it"...it's still bookkeeping to not whether it did or didn't make the recharge and you have to remember to roll every round it doesn't. I'm not even sure if this is any simpler or easier than roll once and remember number.

I'm not sure I understand your question, but when running a 4E dragon, I simply roll the d6 at the beginning of all of the dragon's turns. If I roll a 5 or a 6, I know the dragon will use its breath weapon on that turn, and I immediately begin to execute that plan, potentially first moving the dragon and then choosing the location of the blast. I don't need to remember anything that the dragon did on previous turns, and in this sense the breath weapon is "stateless."

In 3E I never found a better mechanism than keeping a counter for the round number and jotting down the round number at which various durations ended. For some things I would count down using a die, but I would consider that die/counter as an instance of bookkeeping. YMMV.