Did WotC underestimate the Paizo effect on 4E?

[General Lopez]

How different would 4E be if WotC had brought Paizo on board? I am not saying that 4E is not selling good for them, but you have to admit that a good size percentage of there 3.5 base did not move on to the new edition. WotC in effect by not bringing Paizo on board created there biggest competition in the D&D market.

I believe this was one of their biggest mistakes in there handling of 4E. They now have a company that puts out some of the best products in the industry for what was their old D&D system. Paizo would have complimented them so well in 4E with Paizo's strength being adventures and WotC weakness being adventures.

Also while there are always people who do not move on to a new edition, how many more did not move on this time, because their system of choice was still going to be supported by one of the best companies in the gaming industry?

 

[Umbran]

No, I don't think they underestimated Paizo's effect on 4e.

You cannot please everybody. Some folks were not going to like 4e, no matter what the design was. Some segment of the market as not going to be 4e customers, period. Paizo making product for folks who weren't going to be WotC customers anyway is not competition for WotC.

I do not think WotC is really in competition with other RPG companies. They are in competition with other entertainment. The real question for WotC among consumers isn't, "What RPG will I play?" but, "Will I play RPGs at all?"

 

[UngainlyTitan]

Yes no and maybe?

It really depends on how you read the struggle to produce the GSL. To have kept Paizo on board would have required a resolution of the GSL to third party satisfaction well in advance of the launch of 4e otherwise WoTC were asking Paizo to stick with them on a promise.
This would have been too much to ask as Pazio would have been betting the company.
I think that there were elements in WoTC management that wanted no GSL and to kill the thrid party market and I think that they kinda won.
Now had WoTC being more open to third party and kept Paizo on board would have it made a difference to people now playing Pathfinder/3.x. Well aside from the obvious they may well still be playing 3.x or moved on to other systems.
Better adventures for 4.e may well have converted some but I think Paizo would have developed their own game in time anyway. I believe this because the pulling of Dragon and Dungeon and the announcement of 4e show that Paizo was in a precarious position being dependant on WoTC for a market for their products and they would have moved to create their own IP anyway.
They may well have taken more time about if the GSL had been more generous.

 

[DaveMage]

I don't know if WotC underestimated them or not, but Paizo has to be absolutely thrilled with what WotC did with 4E.

If not for 4E, Paizo would likely be in a much different place.

 

[Wicht]

Personally, I think Paizo's success has been greater than anyone in either company truly expected. I would not be surprised to learn that Paizo has jumped from owning about 5% of the RPG market to somewhere between 25 and 40%.

I think dropping the OGL has hurt WotC in multiple ways. It lost those of us who supported the concept. It opened the door for Paizo to continue with a very good, well supported rules set. It also I think, made 4e more stagnant. Under 3e and the OGL when people grew tired of what they were playing, they didn't change rules, they bought one or two 3pp books and changed up their game play that way. But they were still playing 3e and were still WotC customers. Now when people get tired of 4e, they drop it and move to Pathfinder, M&M, Warhammer or some other system.

 

[jonesy]

4E was the reason our group got out of D&D. I'm not saying it was bad. We did try it. Even finished a campaign. But we'd been getting really tired of the edition wars as early as when 3.5 was just a rumour. I think 4E was just the last straw. Don't really have anything particularly negative to say about it. So we moved into other games.

Having said that, now that we are slowly getting back to D&D, Pathfinder is the interesting direction. 4E doesn't seem to be a priority for any of us. So from our perspective, yes, it's possible that they did.

 

[IronWolf]

I would think the effect was underestimated to a degree. Paizo has given those of us that prefer the 3.x version of rules a great place to call home, making not moving to 4e all that much easier. I also feel I still have a company targeting my demographic more effectively when it comes to gaming with Paizo and I am not sure someone would have filled that void as well as Paizo.

With that said I would not have moved to 4e even if Paizo had not stepped up. I would have stuck with my 3.x books and still had a good amount of material to play, plus what I can come up with on my own.

Of course now I can buy excellent, well written adventures from Paizo and use them with no conversion. If they had gone to 4e I would likely still buy the adventures but then have to tackle the task of converting them back to my preferred system. As time went on though I could see myself growing tired of converting and even drop that - luckily not a choice I am faced with now.

 

[Maggan]

It lost those of us who supported the concept.

While I might be an anomaly, I propose that it is possible to support the concept of the OGL and still play D&D4e. For me, one does not exclude the other.

I'd like D&D4e to have been as open as 3e, but alas that did not happen.

I believe that Paizo would have moved to a Pathfinder model sooner or later anyways disregarding 4e. They've stated on several occasions that a reliance on another companies policies (WotC) was a severe obstacle to growth for them.

Going at it with total control of their own destiny was bound to happen. Either that or shutting down the place after WotC changed their policies one time to much.

/M

 

[Ahnehnois]

How different would 4E be if WotC had brought Paizo on board? I am not saying that 4E is not selling good for them, but you have to admit that a good size percentage of there 3.5 base did not move on to the new edition. WotC in effect by not bringing Paizo on board created there biggest competition in the D&D market.

I believe this was one of their biggest mistakes in there handling of 4E. They now have a company that puts out some of the best products in the industry for what was their old D&D system. Paizo would have complimented them so well in 4E with Paizo's strength being adventures and WotC weakness being adventures.

Also while there are always people who do not move on to a new edition, how many more did not move on this time, because their system of choice was still going to be supported by one of the best companies in the gaming industry?

I didn't know what "Paizo" was before Pathfinder, so perhaps I'm guilty of underestimating them too. However, I think what WotC really underestimated was the game and the fans. 3.5 is a really good game, and people really liked it, and by releasing a wildly different game that doesn't share many of its strengths with a marketing effort that really trashed 3.5 and prior editions, they alienated a significant part of their own fanbase. All of this occurred before PF; so as I see it, Paizo simply jumped on an opportunity. If they hadn't someone else would have. It's just smart business.

I do not think WotC is really in competition with other RPG companies. They are in competition with other entertainment. The real question for WotC among consumers isn't, "What RPG will I play?" but, "Will I play RPGs at all?"

I kind of agree with this, though I think it's a shame. I think the best entertainment is created by and for specific people, rather than by trying to appeal to the masses. It's very difficult to do something that pleases both casual and hardcore fans. It does seem their target audience in marketing is people who don't yet play D&D, which is a shame for those of us who already do.

 

[Dykstrav]

I don't think that anyone (either Wizards of the Coast or Paizo) underestimated Paizo's effect on the industry. Paizo was known for quality content before Pathfinder, and they are known for quality content after Pathfinder. It's not as if they would or would not have produced quality content dependent upon whatever happened with 4E.

You cannot please everybody. Some folks were not going to like 4e, no matter what the design was. Some segment of the market as not going to be 4e customers, period. Paizo making product for folks who weren't going to be WotC customers anyway is not competition for WotC.

This is a particularly relevant observation. Not everyone jumps on board when a new edition rolls into town--I personally know of three 1E games, two 2E games, and a small smattering of 3E and 3.5 games (not including Pathfinder) in my area. These people didn't see any reason to switch editions just because a new one rolled out, they stuck with the one they already liked. Official support for a favored game doesn't play as big a part in these preferences as some people think. I myself am running a Vampire: the Masquerade game now, even though official support ended for it six years ago, and it's been so successful that I'm even looking at starting up a Wraith: the Oblivion game, which was officially discontinued in 1999... Lack of official support certainly doesn't make a great product any less great.

But a bit more on topic... Given the nature of the OGL, I think that someone would have come along to sell new material to 3.5 fans if Paizo wasn't around. It's basic supply and demand. The market demanded more OGL 3.5 material and the company that decided to supply the products was Paizo--it could have been someone else if Paizo wasn't around, but for my part, I'm glad that it's Paizo. My flavor of D&D is in good hands.

I also think that it's a winning proposition for Wizards of the Coast. Since I'm not really interested in more 4E products as they stand now, they can feel free to shape the game in ways that appeal to other customers. I get continuing support for my favored version of the game, but the people who don't like it get a version of the game they like too. Good times for everyone as far as I can see.