This sort of dismissal surprises me. When I see people post that what happens on messageboards is not representative and what happens at conventions and gamedays is not representative and what happens at gamestores is not representative and then theorize that there are vast numbers of people who there is no way to poll and no way to be sure even exist in any substantial number with a specific viewpoint, I have to be skeptical. I mean, if you want to believe it, more power to you, but it doesn't even rise to the level of insufficient data. The fact of the matter is that people on messageboards, at convention and gmedays, and in gamestores are precisely representative of what they play and think. They just happen to be people who you can actually count and poll.
I see the Edition Wars even in everyday life.
At my workplace, a few months ago I was assigned to a new team at the call center I work at. A dozen and a half people are on that team, of which it turns out a half-dozen are gamers, albeit more-or-less casual ones. One even went to the Dragon Con that started this thread (not for the gaming, she's more into cosplay and sci-fi), and cautiously I broached the question of what their edition of choice was. The answer was unanimous, they were all 3.5 players, and avoid 4e like the plague.
None had ever even heard of PF, they just knew they didn't like or want 4e and were still playing the D&D edition they liked.
Yes, I've seen 4e players in the real world, and I've seen just as many, or more 3e players that have just quietly gotten off the edition treadmill at 3.5. They don't buy new products, and probably won't touch PF, and they can sit around with their older edition PHB, MM, DMG and any other books and play for the rest of their lives with their friends and "drop off the grid" from the larger D&D community, especially when some communities online aren't very friendly to older edition adherents.
What really bothers me is that there are so many people who so quickly dismiss any evidence that there are still 3.5 players out there as irrelevant. Just as WotC put fertilizer for an edition war with the "bullet to the head" and "not fun" cracks (among others), 4e fans that claim that the presence of 3.x fans on message boards, in game stores, at conventions ect. are irrelevant and there are vast hordes of 4e players and that players of any other edition is a tiny and very vocal minority.
Yes, as the currently supported edition of D&D, 4th edition is going to have a lot of players as it benefits from marketing and ease of obtaining the materials, and some people do prefer it over other editions, but of the millions of people who play D&D how many just suddenly switched over? Of those vaunted hordes of quiet, casual gamers that don't go online to message boards and attend major cons, how many really bought 4e and switched their campaigns just because it was the new edition (especially given the vast changes between 3.5 and 4e in both setting presumptions and system)?
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