Well,
We now have a little bit more information. Most of it is expected, but it does confirm some thoughts others have already posted about.
* There will be no more legal PDF downloads.
* The revocation of PDF availability is part of a larger company strategy.
* Much of the interview is what we (collectively, the gaming community, and IMO) would term "management speak" or "corporate speak". I do not want this taken as a criticism of WotC - quite the opposite. It is the sort of response that a very litigous U.S.A. has forced, IMO. I would be very surprised if any response we see were not sanitized and made legally, and PR (towards the stockholders) clean.
I am hesitant to make predictions based on the information available to me so far. I certainly don't have any insider knowledge. But I can't help but come to some preliminary conclusions, now that I see the pieces beginning for form a picture. I expect we will generally see the following (and yes, if you posted one of these in another thread, and now see it here, I probably read it. I apologize - I'm too tired to search out attributions adequately):
1) 4E book digital versions will become available only through DDI. I expect this will happen within the next 3-6 months, at the earliest. If this comes to pass, the digital versions will probably start out as available only through an active connection (you must have Internet access and be logged in to get it), with possible offline access (and restrictions) available later. (The Steam Theory.)
2) Older editions will not get the digital treatment until basic economics improve - they're too expensive to convert and bring in too little money. Plus, there would have to be a certain level of demand/acceptance of the new format to overcome - and right now the customer reaction is rather loudly upset. Upset customers don't buy older edition products. I would honestly be surprised if we see any of them before 4th quarter.
3) I expect that the overall strategy is this: Make the game easier and simpler, to draw in new customers. Make it more amenable to play with miniatures. Both of those make the game easier to virtualize (convert to a digital tabletop). This is attractive because it allows the market to tap into/expand into other gaming markets - especially MMORPGs - while still retaining the uniqueness of playing with live people and a live DM. This is difficult to implement on a sufficiently profitable scale, IMO, because of the number of big steps to go through. But I think making the gaming table into a virtual table is where the game will go... and I think WotC sees that as a great opportunity to increase the primary customer base, generate recurring income via monthly subscriptions, and attract lapsed gamers - who want to play with their group but can't because Real Life (tm) has forced too much distance - back into spending money.
So far, WotC's offerings in this arena have been lacking. But from a business technical standpoint, 3E (and 3.5E) was way too complicated a system for virtualization. 4E pushes it the other way, and introduces some really cool ideas as well. If there is no virtual tabletop for 4E, then there will be one for 5E.
I'm too tired to analyze further tonight.
The above theories are vulnerable to a great number of variables:
* Further layoffs at WotC will cause delays as domain knowledge is lost within the company.
* Additional hires will cause moderate delays as domain knowledge is gained/transferred within the company.
* Further general economic hardship can easily reduce the company's income, and force the delay of the expenditures necessary for any of the above. The reverse (economic boom causing the money to be spent sooner for faster results) is also possible.
* The imagination and creativity of the people working at WotC - they can easily come up with a radical idea that none of us have thought of that would make my speculations moot.
* Effectively out-sourcing or contracting the work required to hungry, talented outsiders.
* WotC planning all of this out, very thoroughly and accurately, starting at least at the middle of last year. I think this community tends to forget just how talented and smart the folks at WotC are.
* WotC getting caught completely off-guard by the negative customer (especially DM) reaction and/or current world-wide economic recession. Even geniuses make mistakes
* Changes in technology - even seemingly small ones - can alter the playing field completely.
* The push to more Internet-play may strangle the essential "juice", the attractiveness of D&D as an RPG, out of the game.
Please note that I'm not trying to bash WotC; ANY edition of the game (I think they're all cool - I just don't like playing parts of them); or sing the glories of either. I'm very disappointed with the decisions that WotC has made so far, and sadly now have no reason to spend my money on their products. This may change in either direction. Nor do I want anyone to use my speculation and theories to attack WotC: The smart people in that company have access to information that we do not, and we probably never will -- barring a unique event, such as the implosion of TSR. That doesn't mean that I won't come back to these forums to sing their genius praises... or curse their short-sightedness in the future.
