What's the cost of full-on "cult" status? Why does it matter? I don't think it's an issue of quality - I still maintain that the very best stuff produced for the hobby was basically a "garage" effort. So if D&D is reduced to a loose-knit association of hobbyists who make their own quirky stuff and publish/distribute it over the internet (like the Old School Renaissance) then we'll still have plenty of quality stuff out there.
The real pain of cult status is that it makes it harder to find players IRL. There will be a smaller pool, on average, of available players and it may be harder to get some games off the ground. The key in that situation is, as others have pointed about above, simplicity.
Look at WWII naval miniatures wargaming. There's a niche hobby for you! Now there are a number of rules sets from which to choose: General Quarters, Seekrieg, Victory at Sea, etc. Mongoose's Victory at Sea has been a bit of a boon for that hobby, despite its flaws (we're talking Mongoose here) as a set of rules. Why? Well, for one thing, it is simple. For another, it is very easy to house rule (such as Dave Manley's collection of house rules online).
So say I want to put together a battle game or even a campaign. I get some nice, cheap castings from Panzerschiffe and my simple set of rules. I'm not happy with some aspects of the rules, so I print up a 1-page sheet of house rules. Now I just need players.
I'm at an advantage in this if I have a simple set of rules. If I mention a game where you have to do trigonometry to fire a spread of torpedoes, it is going to be a harder sell. If I mention a game in which some guy in the local area got stuck in a 15-hour session and only fired one shot with an anemic 5" gun, it is going to be a harder sell. The larger commitment of time the rules and the individual sessions require, and the slower the pace of the game, the harder a sell it is going to be. After all, my fellow wargamers only have a limited amount of free time, and they ought to spend it well.
If I come in with a simpler, faster-playing ruleset then we can probably get something started. If someone says "I don't like how aircraft work in VaS" (who does?) then we can talk about house rules. But it's not too hard to get something written out that everyone can pretty much agree on. And then we get down to gaming.
In the end, it's not the gaming products themselves that get people to the table and keep them there. It's the interpersonal interactions. If I come across a complete newbie who is willing to try, say, a naval game, I better be able to put something in front of him that he can grok. And it better not take 20 hours to play. Likewise, in trying to get my fellow grognards to the table, I better be able to put something out there that everyone will at least sort of like and not feel like bamboo is being shoved under their fingernails every time we resolve a movement phase.
To be clear, it's not about having the "perfect" set of rules. That's going to be different for everybody. It's about having the "good enough" set of rules. And that set of rules should be accessible (complexity-wise), manageable (time-wise), and able to be heavily modded so that it can be tailored to the preferences of each unique group.
Part of D&D 4E's problem is that it is so rarefied. Not only is it extremely focused on tactical combat, the actual semantic content of the game world is divorced from the mechanics (why does this half-naked pirate have an AC of 21? Because he's a level-appropriate foe and your Striker is supposed to roll a 10+ to hit him. He could be wearing plate armor or he could be totally nude... no mechanical difference). So not only does a potential player have to really enjoy the tactical combat aspect, and enjoy 4E's particular take on tactical combat at that (it's dimensions of Wuxia, etc.), he also has to not care about the "fluff" of the setting and how it interacts with "Combat Mode". This is a series of design decisions that just whittles down the potential audience. I think there's no way it can be the "gateway game" to the hobby.
The real pain of cult status is that it makes it harder to find players IRL. There will be a smaller pool, on average, of available players and it may be harder to get some games off the ground. The key in that situation is, as others have pointed about above, simplicity.
Look at WWII naval miniatures wargaming. There's a niche hobby for you! Now there are a number of rules sets from which to choose: General Quarters, Seekrieg, Victory at Sea, etc. Mongoose's Victory at Sea has been a bit of a boon for that hobby, despite its flaws (we're talking Mongoose here) as a set of rules. Why? Well, for one thing, it is simple. For another, it is very easy to house rule (such as Dave Manley's collection of house rules online).
So say I want to put together a battle game or even a campaign. I get some nice, cheap castings from Panzerschiffe and my simple set of rules. I'm not happy with some aspects of the rules, so I print up a 1-page sheet of house rules. Now I just need players.
I'm at an advantage in this if I have a simple set of rules. If I mention a game where you have to do trigonometry to fire a spread of torpedoes, it is going to be a harder sell. If I mention a game in which some guy in the local area got stuck in a 15-hour session and only fired one shot with an anemic 5" gun, it is going to be a harder sell. The larger commitment of time the rules and the individual sessions require, and the slower the pace of the game, the harder a sell it is going to be. After all, my fellow wargamers only have a limited amount of free time, and they ought to spend it well.
If I come in with a simpler, faster-playing ruleset then we can probably get something started. If someone says "I don't like how aircraft work in VaS" (who does?) then we can talk about house rules. But it's not too hard to get something written out that everyone can pretty much agree on. And then we get down to gaming.
In the end, it's not the gaming products themselves that get people to the table and keep them there. It's the interpersonal interactions. If I come across a complete newbie who is willing to try, say, a naval game, I better be able to put something in front of him that he can grok. And it better not take 20 hours to play. Likewise, in trying to get my fellow grognards to the table, I better be able to put something out there that everyone will at least sort of like and not feel like bamboo is being shoved under their fingernails every time we resolve a movement phase.
To be clear, it's not about having the "perfect" set of rules. That's going to be different for everybody. It's about having the "good enough" set of rules. And that set of rules should be accessible (complexity-wise), manageable (time-wise), and able to be heavily modded so that it can be tailored to the preferences of each unique group.
Part of D&D 4E's problem is that it is so rarefied. Not only is it extremely focused on tactical combat, the actual semantic content of the game world is divorced from the mechanics (why does this half-naked pirate have an AC of 21? Because he's a level-appropriate foe and your Striker is supposed to roll a 10+ to hit him. He could be wearing plate armor or he could be totally nude... no mechanical difference). So not only does a potential player have to really enjoy the tactical combat aspect, and enjoy 4E's particular take on tactical combat at that (it's dimensions of Wuxia, etc.), he also has to not care about the "fluff" of the setting and how it interacts with "Combat Mode". This is a series of design decisions that just whittles down the potential audience. I think there's no way it can be the "gateway game" to the hobby.