Goodman rebuttal

[Cadfan]

Because it is also impossible to really know if 4e is going strong and yet people say so. Marketing is a reality that comes to fill the gaps of knowledge. But if one does marketing expect some people to question and rightly so. In the end this is how democracy works too.

This doesn't actually make sense, you know. Particularly the second sentence.

What I see in this forum is a sort of denialism-lite. Its the same basic system whether you're denying the sales figures of an RPG you don't like, or denying the efficacy of vaccinations:

1. Demand absolute, 100% guaranteed, irrefutable proof.
2. When this isn't provided, because you've demanded an unattainable degree of certainty, proclaim that this means that the matter is an open question.
3. Throw out insinuations to get people to believe that if the matter is an open question, they should lean towards assuming that your side is the safest bet.

So on one hand we have best seller lists, print runs being sold out, reordered, and sold out again, we have the statements of people in the industry with direct knowledge, we have the statements of people in the industry with professional experience examining these questions and making business decisions based on them, and so on.

On the other hand we have quibbles about how complete these pieces of evidence really are, and a few people's personal testimony about their friends and neighbors.

Its the tricks and tactics of denialism that serve to turn this into a debate instead of a functionally closed question. The best seller lists are pointed out as not infallible. The fact that print runs sell out is used to argue that the print runs must have been too small and somehow therefore indicates a lack of confidence. The people in the industry are accused of being shills, or insinuations about a lack of candor, without any specific accusation, are used to muddy their reputations.

The goal is to make everyone believe that anything at all could be true, but that the people saying 4e is doing well are somehow sinister and not to be trusted, and that therefore we should presume that its doing poorly.

Just the same as any other denialism. There are some interesting scholarly articles about the phenomenon out there, if you care to look around. I'm not sure I should post them here, some people might read them like a manual.

 

[Bumbles]

Because it is also impossible to really know if 4e is going strong and yet people say so.

I find it more people saying 4e is dying than the other way around.

 

[thecasualoblivion]

Because it is also impossible to really know if 4e is going strong and yet people say so. Marketing is a reality that comes to fill the gaps of knowledge. But if one does marketing expect some people to question and rightly so. In the end this is how democracy works too.

But the reverse is also true. It is impossible to really know if 4E is doing poorly. Yet, people keep posting the argument that opinions where 4E is doing well are invalid because there is no evidence while implying that the opposite is true.

My point is that the lack of evidence doesn't refute the opinion, and it most certainly does not support the opposite. If you disagree with an opinion, try come up with your own opinion.

 

[jdrakeh]

I am asking seriously here because I fail (totally) to see your point.

The point is that some people in this thread are acting spectacularly crappy toward Mr. Goodman (and, in another thread, toward Mr. Peterson) without good justification. Publishers have been known to go on long sabbaticals or close up shop completely because they get sick of dealing with throngs of hypercritical 'fans' who never (or rarely) have anything positive to say. Simply put, there is a ton of crap to deal with for relatively little reward.

There was a day when I didn't 'get' this reaction, either. I recall being utterly perplexed when James Wallis publically told his consumers where to stick it right before parting out Hogshead Publishing near the end of 2002. You can read up on some of that fallout and reasoning here. Having since had the opportunity to work on the business side of this hobby, I completely understand how he felt.

 

[Hunter In Darkness]

All we have to go on is how each of our area's are doing. 10 people can say 4e sales poorly, then 10 can say it sales better then 3.5 did, then 10 people can say it's 50/50 sales

And we still know very little. Then count in online and such and you just do not know.

I think it is saleing ok, I do not think it outsold 3.0 and really don't think it is outselling 3.5 however 3.5 was in a slump( mostly do to bad splat books if ya ask me) and so it prob is selling better then it did the last year or so of 3.5

but really we know nothing. And really Mr. Goodmen knows nothing . He sees but one small part and nothing of Wotc's numbers

I am glad both for him and 4e players that enjoy his stuff that his sales are good. But I think it has more to do with Goodmens name, the fact he jumped into 4e as soon as he could and the company's soild fanbase then much else really

Other companys without the fanbase, and the name will just not get much headway

 

[thecasualoblivion]

This doesn't actually make sense, you know. Particularly the second sentence.

What I see in this forum is a sort of denialism-lite. Its the same basic system whether you're denying the sales figures of an RPG you don't like, or denying the efficacy of vaccinations:

1. Demand absolute, 100% guaranteed, irrefutable proof.
2. When this isn't provided, because you've demanded an unattainable degree of certainty, proclaim that this means that the matter is an open question.
3. Throw out insinuations to get people to believe that if the matter is an open question, they should lean towards assuming that your side is the safest bet.

So on one hand we have best seller lists, print runs being sold out, reordered, and sold out again, we have the statements of people in the industry with direct knowledge, we have the statements of people in the industry with professional experience examining these questions and making business decisions based on them, and so on.

On the other hand we have quibbles about how complete these pieces of evidence really are, and a few people's personal testimony about their friends and neighbors.

Its the tricks and tactics of denialism that serve to turn this into a debate instead of a functionally closed question. The best seller lists are pointed out as not infallible. The fact that print runs sell out is used to argue that the print runs must have been too small and somehow therefore indicates a lack of confidence. The people in the industry are accused of being shills, or insinuations about a lack of candor, without any specific accusation, are used to muddy their reputations.

The goal is to make everyone believe that anything at all could be true, but that the people saying 4e is doing well are somehow sinister and not to be trusted, and that therefore we should presume that its doing poorly.

Just the same as any other denialism. There are some interesting scholarly articles about the phenomenon out there, if you care to look around. I'm not sure I should post them here, some people might read them like a manual.

There is also an interesting addendum:

People who benefit from 4E's success have less of a need to deny or believe anything. They have 4E, and life is good. At the very least its better than the uncertain future for 3E/OGL.

 

[xechnao]

This doesn't actually make sense, you know. Particularly the second sentence.

Ok, let me retry by quoting your own words.

Throw out insinuations to get people to believe that if the matter is an open question, they should lean towards assuming that your side is the safest bet.

When people communicate this the tactic of every one side. Communication is open. This is why marketing works and this is why true democracy is considered the political ideal.

statements of people in the industry with direct knowledge, we have the statements of people in the industry with professional experience examining these questions and making business decisions based on them, and so on.

There is no such thing as direct knowledge in today's business-industry. It is mostly about hype. On every level of it. What you need is a competitive product and hype. Not a good product but a competitive product.

On the other hand we have quibbles about how complete these pieces of evidence really are, and a few people's personal testimony about their friends and neighbors.

Its the tricks and tactics of denialism that serve to turn this into a debate instead of a functionally closed question. The best seller lists are pointed out as not infallible. The fact that print runs sell out is used to argue that the print runs must have been too small and somehow therefore indicates a lack of confidence. The people in the industry are accused of being shills, or insinuations about a lack of candor, without any specific accusation, are used to muddy their reputations.

The goal is to make everyone believe that anything at all could be true, but that the people saying 4e is doing well are somehow sinister and not to be trusted, and that therefore we should presume that its doing poorly.

Just the same as any other denialism. There are some interesting scholarly articles about the phenomenon out there, if you care to look around. I'm not sure I should post them here, some people might read them like a manual.

I think you are totally missing the point. Wotc could have fantastic sales. Yet Hasbro could close it down for some irrelevant reason. Hasbro is the true authority behind this and all the rest of the discussions we are having serve nothing but hype. This is what Joe is trying to say/communicate/make clear and he has a point.

EDIT: Obviously I am referring here in the last sentence to the one Joe that goes by the lawyer profession

 

[Doug McCrae]

but really we know nothing

Then act like it, Socrates.

Apparently, you didn't read my warning on page 4 closely enough.

 

[Doug McCrae]

Really smart stuff

F---ing A.

 

[Drunken Master]

Right now, at my FLGS, the tables are full. I'm actually not there because those tables are full. And it's NOT because of Free RPG Day or anything, because for whatever reason, this store's not participating. But dudes are showing up to play, and they're playing 4E.

A week ago I tried to sign up to play in a RPGA Living Forgotten Realms session scheduled for today, but the tables available were already full. My local RPGA folks run two game days a month, and they had to add a third one next week so that people like myself could have a chance to play, too! People who tout the failure of 4E are... "mistaken", I guess would be the most polite way I could put it.

We're at the FLGS, we're buying stuff, we're playing 4E, and we're having fun. I've played every edition of this game, and not only have I had a blast with each one, each iteration has been better than the last, in my opinion.

I don't know about sales figures or any of that business - all I know is that I have a really good time getting together with people, rolling some dice, and pretending to kill monsters - whether it be at the store or in my home, and I think 4E is killer. There are a LOT of people just like me out there.

Thanks, Wizards! And thanks, Goodman!