On NAS's, my point was quite the opposite. While a NAS is technically the "right" solution, the consumer can't fathom it. The consumer needs iTunes to detect and merge all libraries in a household, and cloudify them. That means no more single-download of a song, so that if something goes wrong, the user can re-get their song. it means NOT having to backup their library manually, for all intents and purposes. What really goes on under the hood, would be Apple magic.
My point about NetFlix and game consoles is that they are already in position in a large number of households. They do access iTunes on people's PCs to some extent (from what i can tell, I don't directly use that feature).
Therefore, AppleTV, though cheaper than a PS3/360, has a challenge. Its feature set has too much overlap. Odds are good, people like me are convincing normal people what doo-dad to buy to do cool TV stuff. While I wouldn't rule out AppleTV, if the person has gamers in the house, I'd recommend using a game console to do all that, and not an AppleTV.
NetFlix and iTunes are in a race, as far as video media goes. Both are signing up content suppliers. $9 a month, versus $1 a show. if Netflix grows its "recent" library more, or shrinks the time from broadcast to available to stream, netFlix is inherently a cheaper deal.
Consider True Blood. We watch it off the DVR (sometimes as its recording) or the next day. Then a few days to weeks later, one of my wife's friends comes over to watch it because they don't have HBO. In iTunes, that's a double RENTAL. If NetFlix had it, it would be part of the $9 a month, effectively unlimited usage.
I'm not saying NetFlix is there yet, but they are signing deals with NBC to release ALL of their TV shows. And NetFlix is available on all the latest consoles (and now many smartphones). They are part of an alternative product solution to AppleTV.
Almost all of my friends (who are adults in their 30s) have modern game consoles hooked up to the internet. Most of them even have NetFlix.
The audience of potential customers interested in streaming media is more likely to own a game console that is hooked up to the internet than not. That doesn't mean there's not non-gamers for whom an AppleTV would solve a problem. It's just means that group of people is smaller. That means less sales. Which, thus far, the low sales of Apple TV support that hypothesis (the counter to that is Apple did not really promote the earlier AppleTV productline).
Thats my theory. I think NetFlix will be a better deal to replace my cable subscription. I suspect I won't be able to get everything via NetFlix, but I bet I can watch stuff from the iTunes store on one of my game consoles pretty easily and legally. And you can bet, I'll advise everyone else of that who's interested.
Apple will then only sell to people too clueless to realize they already own the solution at home, or to people who just gotta have the latest doodad, regardless if they actually need it.
I think the gTV will be the same thing. While it will technically have more features, how many of them do you need?