amnuxoll
First Post
So, this may be a given to you folks already but I think this is worth
spelling out explicitly: hit probability is a fundamental part of the game
and the way 4e handles it has big and broad implications for play.
Consider, if you will, a 1st level fighter. You give him an 18
strength. That combined with the proficiency bonus for his longsword
gives him a +7 to attacks.
What are the odds of your 1st level fighter hitting a bad guy
(vs. AC)? Well if you consider that most monsters will be about 2-3
levels higher and then you consult the DMG at the bottom of p.184 you
can get this answer: about 50%.
Now as the fighter gains levels he is sure to increase his Strength
ability at every opportunity. He purchases magical weapons with the
largest enhancement bonus he has access to. Basically, any reasonable
opportunity to increase your normal attack bonus he does it. You play
this PC all the way to 30th level.
What are the odds of your 10th level fighter hitting a bad guy?
Answer: About 50%.
How about 20th level? ... 50%
30th level? ... 50%
This isn't a huge surprise. It's what the WotC folks have been
telling us. But I think it's worth considering the implications, the
biggest of which is that PCs whose class grants powers that use
multiple attack modifiers are actually at a _disadvantage_.
Example: Paladin
About 1/2 the paladin powers are Str-based and the other half are
Cha-based. Obviously, you're going to want to build a paladin to
focus on one or the other. However, given the data above what you
should realize is that "emphasize" is the wrong word. You're going to
want to take nothing but one or the other.
Consider a 1st level Cha-based paladin. Like our fighter (above) he
takes an 18 in Cha to start. Let's say he also puts some points into
Str giving him a 13. (Paladins also need Con and Wis so a 13 Str is a
likely reasonable start with a 22 point buy.) At first level his odds
of hitting are as follows:
Cha-based attack: ~50%
Str-based attack: ~40%
Not so bad, right?
As the paladin gains levels you dutifully increase your Cha at every
opportunity and buy weapons with the highest enhancement accessible.
But you obviously can't afford to bump Str every time. So you bump it
about every other opportunity.
What are the odds of your 30th level fighter hitting a bad guy?
Cha-based attack: ~50%
Str-based attack: ~25%
See what happened? Every time you neglected Str you _PERMANENTLY_
lost a 5% attack probability. You'll never get it back. Even if you
do everything in your power to increase your PC's Str from here on
out, the best you can do is maintain your now dismal 1-in-4 odds. I
don't know about you, but in the middle of a battle I don't like
missing 3 out of 4 times.
The impact of this mechanic is really broad. Suddenly, the importance
of the Reliable keyword on the fighter's daily powers becomes
imminently valuable...perhaps even too powerful! Suddenly, the
advantage of the Elven Precision racial ability is very clear.
Suddenly, small tactical bonuses to attack rolls become really
important. Want to build a PC whose attacks hit better than 60% of
the time? Very difficult.
Consider the implications for multiclassing: If you use multiclassing
feats to access powers that you wouldn't normally get, you'd better be
careful to pick powers that use your best stat for their attack (or
aren't an attack all). Otherwise, it's likely to be a wasted feat as your
hit probability will ruin it for you.
This has an impact on magic items too. Did your your DM grant a noble
title and the opportunity to fix up a your very own castle? To afford
it, all you have to do is delay the purchase of your next magic weapon
for a few levels... It turns out that castle is a lot more expensive
than you thought. To maintain your combat ability you *must* buy the
best weapon you can as soon as you can. One slip, and you will pay
for it for the rest of your PC's career.
People have been talking confidently about how Cha-based paladins are
superior to Str-based. This example illustrates why they really are
about equally good: opportunity attacks. A high level, Cha-based
paladin is unlikely to hit with OAs. This not only reduces their
overall damage output but, more importantly, it removes their ability
to play the role of Defender. A canny DM will simple take the OA
knowing that it's likely to miss. And the baddies will walk right up
to the squishy bits of your party. Sure, they _may_ get a -2 to the
attack and some damage due to the Divine Challenge, but that's not a
bad price to pay for cutting down your party's controller in round 2.
Non-martial characters have it even worse. They lack the weapon
proficiency bonus to their attacks so they have to work equally hard
to maintain a lower probability. They are less likely to get bonuses
from tactical situations (e.g., prone or flank). They are more likely
to have multiple powers that use different ability scores. They are
more likely to suffer from MAD. They also have many other
"opportunities" (i.e., temptations) to spend their gp on rituals and
magic items other than their implement and thus _permanently_ sacrifice
hit probability.
So, I hate sounding like a munchkin. (And this whole post sure makes
me sound like one.) But I think this is a subtle, but critically
important aspect of the new rules that needed to be spelled out
explicitly.
:AMN:
spelling out explicitly: hit probability is a fundamental part of the game
and the way 4e handles it has big and broad implications for play.
Consider, if you will, a 1st level fighter. You give him an 18
strength. That combined with the proficiency bonus for his longsword
gives him a +7 to attacks.
What are the odds of your 1st level fighter hitting a bad guy
(vs. AC)? Well if you consider that most monsters will be about 2-3
levels higher and then you consult the DMG at the bottom of p.184 you
can get this answer: about 50%.
Now as the fighter gains levels he is sure to increase his Strength
ability at every opportunity. He purchases magical weapons with the
largest enhancement bonus he has access to. Basically, any reasonable
opportunity to increase your normal attack bonus he does it. You play
this PC all the way to 30th level.
What are the odds of your 10th level fighter hitting a bad guy?
Answer: About 50%.
How about 20th level? ... 50%
30th level? ... 50%
This isn't a huge surprise. It's what the WotC folks have been
telling us. But I think it's worth considering the implications, the
biggest of which is that PCs whose class grants powers that use
multiple attack modifiers are actually at a _disadvantage_.
Example: Paladin
About 1/2 the paladin powers are Str-based and the other half are
Cha-based. Obviously, you're going to want to build a paladin to
focus on one or the other. However, given the data above what you
should realize is that "emphasize" is the wrong word. You're going to
want to take nothing but one or the other.
Consider a 1st level Cha-based paladin. Like our fighter (above) he
takes an 18 in Cha to start. Let's say he also puts some points into
Str giving him a 13. (Paladins also need Con and Wis so a 13 Str is a
likely reasonable start with a 22 point buy.) At first level his odds
of hitting are as follows:
Cha-based attack: ~50%
Str-based attack: ~40%
Not so bad, right?
As the paladin gains levels you dutifully increase your Cha at every
opportunity and buy weapons with the highest enhancement accessible.
But you obviously can't afford to bump Str every time. So you bump it
about every other opportunity.
What are the odds of your 30th level fighter hitting a bad guy?
Cha-based attack: ~50%
Str-based attack: ~25%
See what happened? Every time you neglected Str you _PERMANENTLY_
lost a 5% attack probability. You'll never get it back. Even if you
do everything in your power to increase your PC's Str from here on
out, the best you can do is maintain your now dismal 1-in-4 odds. I
don't know about you, but in the middle of a battle I don't like
missing 3 out of 4 times.
The impact of this mechanic is really broad. Suddenly, the importance
of the Reliable keyword on the fighter's daily powers becomes
imminently valuable...perhaps even too powerful! Suddenly, the
advantage of the Elven Precision racial ability is very clear.
Suddenly, small tactical bonuses to attack rolls become really
important. Want to build a PC whose attacks hit better than 60% of
the time? Very difficult.
Consider the implications for multiclassing: If you use multiclassing
feats to access powers that you wouldn't normally get, you'd better be
careful to pick powers that use your best stat for their attack (or
aren't an attack all). Otherwise, it's likely to be a wasted feat as your
hit probability will ruin it for you.
This has an impact on magic items too. Did your your DM grant a noble
title and the opportunity to fix up a your very own castle? To afford
it, all you have to do is delay the purchase of your next magic weapon
for a few levels... It turns out that castle is a lot more expensive
than you thought. To maintain your combat ability you *must* buy the
best weapon you can as soon as you can. One slip, and you will pay
for it for the rest of your PC's career.
People have been talking confidently about how Cha-based paladins are
superior to Str-based. This example illustrates why they really are
about equally good: opportunity attacks. A high level, Cha-based
paladin is unlikely to hit with OAs. This not only reduces their
overall damage output but, more importantly, it removes their ability
to play the role of Defender. A canny DM will simple take the OA
knowing that it's likely to miss. And the baddies will walk right up
to the squishy bits of your party. Sure, they _may_ get a -2 to the
attack and some damage due to the Divine Challenge, but that's not a
bad price to pay for cutting down your party's controller in round 2.
Non-martial characters have it even worse. They lack the weapon
proficiency bonus to their attacks so they have to work equally hard
to maintain a lower probability. They are less likely to get bonuses
from tactical situations (e.g., prone or flank). They are more likely
to have multiple powers that use different ability scores. They are
more likely to suffer from MAD. They also have many other
"opportunities" (i.e., temptations) to spend their gp on rituals and
magic items other than their implement and thus _permanently_ sacrifice
hit probability.
So, I hate sounding like a munchkin. (And this whole post sure makes
me sound like one.) But I think this is a subtle, but critically
important aspect of the new rules that needed to be spelled out
explicitly.
:AMN:
