How will humanity end?

[Mustrum_Ridcully]

Tell that to the Native Americans, who were decimated by smallpox from Europe not just before airplanes, but before the invention of the internal combustion engine.

And what I read on the topic suggests that we find the greatest genetic diversity on the African continent, and losing the American and European continent wouldn't affect genetic diversity much.
The way smallpox was differently effective across the world is tied to this, or at least that's what I read.

And the Native Americans are still just a part of humanity, they are not its own species.

Except that those humans had a long tradition of functioning in a world of that nature. We do not. Er, well most of us. Even someone like myself who does have quite a few skills in that arena wouldn't last because of a lack of modern devices. Once my contacts ran out and my glasses were broken all of my hunting skills become moot. Like it or not modern convenience and, especially, modern medicine, have removed quite a bit of humanity's survival ability.

Read more: http://www.enworld.org/forum/newreply.php?do=newreply&p=6205099#ixzz2iNage2Rc
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Unless someone suddenly takes away all technology we have in an instant, this won't be a problem. You'll have an acclimiation phase that won't be nice.

And not to forget under what kind of conditions a vast majority of humanity actually lives in China and India. So what, I as pampered European citizen might not be able to survive the hardships of not being able to go online to order a video game on Amazon and drive the car to the nearest convenience store (because neither do I have fuel for my car, nor does the convenience store still get deliveries, nor could Amazon still get deliveries to me, and I might not even get the electricity to run my computer...), but some peasant in China won't notice such a big difference.
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[Umbran]

And what I read on the topic suggests that we find the greatest genetic diversity on the African continent, and losing the American and European continent wouldn't affect genetic diversity much.

The point, which you seemed to have either missed or ignored, is that you don't need air travel to spread disease. Deadly disease can and will spread between continents, even at wind-power speeds.

 

[Mustrum_Ridcully]

The point, which you seemed to have either missed or ignored, is that you don't need air travel to spread disease. Deadly disease can and will spread between continents, even at wind-power speeds.

You are right, I missed your point.

 

[Umbran]

Except that those humans had a long tradition of functioning in a world of that nature. We do not. Er, well most of us. Even someone like myself who does have quite a few skills in that arena wouldn't last because of a lack of modern devices. Once my contacts ran out and my glasses were broken all of my hunting skills become moot. Like it or not modern convenience and, especially, modern medicine, have removed quite a bit of humanity's survival ability.

No, it hasn't removed humanity's survivability. It has removed the ability of some specific humans to survive without technological support. So, in a major disaster (say, a large impact) that kills civilization in an immediate stroke, a lot of people will die. But, those are only some of the scenarios. Most of the likely scenarios (say, running out of fossil fuels without finding another energy source) are slow-decline. They take a generation or two. And yes, again, a lot of people will die. But not everyone.

Those who aren't killed outright do this thing we call "learning". Humans are actually pretty good at it, when we aren't too comfortable.

You don't have eyesight good enough to hunt? That's okay. Those hunters need someone at home to chip flint to make arrowheads, and that doesn't take good distance vision. Neither does making pottery, or tanning skins, or subsistence-level farming. They'll find something useful for you to do, don't worry.

 

[Zombie_Babies]

Unless someone suddenly takes away all technology we have in an instant, this won't be a problem. You'll have an acclimiation phase that won't be nice.

Umm ... yes it will. Do you know how to grow crops on a scale large enough to keep you alive? Do you know how to hunt? Hell, can you sew well enough to keep yourself clothed? Technology != skill. In a world like the one we're talking about ones' skills will be paramount. My point is that the vast, vast majority of human beings today have no such skills. They simply don't need them.

And not to forget under what kind of conditions a vast majority of humanity actually lives in China and India. So what, I as pampered European citizen might not be able to survive the hardships of not being able to go online to order a video game on Amazon and drive the car to the nearest convenience store (because neither do I have fuel for my car, nor does the convenience store still get deliveries, nor could Amazon still get deliveries to me, and I might not even get the electricity to run my computer...), but some peasant in China won't notice such a big difference.

True. Some people will feel a lot less pain.

No, it hasn't removed humanity's survivability. It has removed the ability of some specific humans to survive without technological support. So, in a major disaster (say, a large impact) that kills civilization in an immediate stroke, a lot of people will die. But, those are only some of the scenarios. Most of the likely scenarios (say, running out of fossil fuels without finding another energy source) are slow-decline. They take a generation or two. And yes, again, a lot of people will die. But not everyone.

Those who aren't killed outright do this thing we call "learning". Humans are actually pretty good at it, when we aren't too comfortable.

You don't have eyesight good enough to hunt? That's okay. Those hunters need someone at home to chip flint to make arrowheads, and that doesn't take good distance vision. Neither does making pottery, or tanning skins, or subsistence-level farming. They'll find something useful for you to do, don't worry.

Again, do you know how to hunt, fish, farm, sew, etc? Do you think you're a, well, appealing enough personality to find others to support you while you learn how to do all of those things for yourself - especially when these people will be struggling to support themselves? What, exactly, could you offer them? And even if you do have something to offer them - maybe you're a doctor, maybe you really do have a winning personality - what about the millions that aren't/don't? If it's you scrambling and using your skills to keep you and yours alive, are you really going to find busywork for someone? I don't think so. Simply put, if I can make arrowheads and use them I don't need someone who can't use them to make them for me. I can't guarantee food for myself - let alone you.

In short, most people will not have what it takes to make it and most of the people that will won't bother saving those that don't because the people that do have the skills know that they can't afford to. Life won't be a hippy commune where each works according to his ability to earn resources according to his need.

 

[Nellisir]

My point is that the vast, vast majority of human beings today have no such skills. They simply don't need them.

It doesn't matter. We're talking about the survival of the human race, not the survival of you or me or cousin Billy Joe Bob. If we lost 99% of the human race today because they had poor skilz, there would still be 60 million humans to do the Adam & Eve.

(personally, I think the survival rate would be much higher if we lost technology. The skills aren't that long gone. And people can get by on a lot less than they expect.)

 

[Grumpy RPG Reviews]

Cthulhu will rise and teach us new kinds of fear... and eat us.

(Less jokey, war and loss of easily usable resources and food)

 

[Nellisir]

Hell, can you sew well enough to keep yourself clothed?

Gotta admit, I find this a strange one. The bar for creating "clothing" is pretty low. Asking if you can make thread from catgut, or tan a hide, that would be more challenging. (Tanning hides would be tough, but I know a lot of people that work with wool, from sheep to sweater. And I've had some experience with tanning, so I wouldn't be starting from zero....) None of that is really "required" skills, though....

 

[Jet Shield]

Do you know how to grow crops on a scale large enough to keep you alive? Do you know how to hunt? Hell, can you sew well enough to keep yourself clothed?

[snip]

Again, do you know how to hunt, fish, farm, sew, etc?

Yes. I can also make charcoal, do some (very basic) blacksmithing, knap flint (poorly, but I can make some useable tools), breed/raise/butcher animals, tan hides, make soap, churn butter, make cheese, and start a fire with sticks. I can do all those things well enough, in fact, that I would be able to make room for a half-blind janitor to help with the grunt work (like cleaning animal pens, turning compost, and general clean-up). Actually, I would almost need someone (or several someones) to help with the unskilled grunt work in order to maximize my output and live well rather than just survive.

There are plenty of people even in the US and Europe that would be able to survive the loss of modern technology. It might not be a lot of fun at first, but it's certainly survivable. Sure, a lot of people would probably die, but millions just in the US would live.

In short, loss of modern technology would not lead to the extinction of humanity.

 

[Umbran]

Umm ... yes it will. Do you know how to grow crops on a scale large enough to keep you alive?

Yes, I do, actually. And learned how to do canning for winter storage as well.

Do you know how to hunt?

Personally, no. But I do know of to make a fire without matches, how to build a shelter, and how to chop down a tree without having it fall on me.

Hell, can you sew well enough to keep yourself clothed?

Yes, I can - my mother didn't want a son who couldn't mend clothes. They won't be fancy, but they'll stay on my person. And while I don't weave, my wife does spin fiber into yarn.

In a world like the one we're talking about ones' skills will be paramount. My point is that the vast, vast majority of human beings today have no such skills. They simply don't need them.

And my point is that most of them are not nearly so difficult as you make them out to be. What you don't know can be learned. None of what I know was picked up because I'm some sort of manic survivalist. I'm just interested in things, and picked them up as part of hobbies.

Oh, and my wife is a veterinarian, and therefore knows how to keep sheep, goats, chickens, cows, horses, and a number of other animals healthy. And that's not a rare skill - every veterinarian in the country gets trained on food animals.

And, in the end, whether *I* know things isn't relevant. We are talking not about what will kill off lots of people in urban America, but the world. In order for humankind to go extinct, you have to kill every human on the planet. And lots and lots of the world is not like urban America. A great many people in third world countries have the skills required to live without modern tech - because they already do!

In short, most people will not have what it takes to make it...

See above. Remember that the USA is only 300 million on a planet of seven billion.