Is D&D Entering a New Golden Age?

Sales of the hobby game market are on the rise, with tabletop role-playing games increasing along with other tabletop games. With a new Wizards of the Coast CEO in place who values Dungeons & Dragons as much as Magic: The Gathering and a movie on the horizon, we're starting to see signs that D&D is doing very well indeed.

Picture courtesy of Unsplash.​

The Hobby Market is Doing Well​

ICv2 reported that the hobby market is hitting eye-popping numbers:

Sales of hobby games in the U.S. and Canada topped $1.4 billion in 2016, reaching $1.44 billion, according to a new estimate compiled by ICv2 and reported in Internal Correspondence #92. That’s a 21% total growth rate over 2015, with rates of change ranging from 17% for the slowest-growing category to 29% for the fastest-growing. Growth rates were pulled higher by more rapid growth of hobby games in the mass channel, especially in collectible, board, and card & dice games.

Of those categories, collectible games grew the most, followed by hobby board games and role-playing games. Role-playing games increased the most, by 29%, from $35 million to $45 million. Of the top five RPGs, Dungeons & Dragons Fifth Edition and Pathfinder retained their first and second position, respectively.

Ancillary RPG markets are doing well too, like non-collectible miniatures. Non-collectible miniature sales were up from $175 million to $205 million, a 17% increase. Star Wars X-Wing led the charge, followed by Warhammer 40K and D&D's Nolzur's Marvels Minis, high-quality unpainted miniatures produced by Wizkids.

Unsurprisingly, Hasbro is benefiting from this bump.

Hasbro's Games Are Doing Well​

Hasbro topped $5 billion in revenue for the first time:

Net revenues for the full-year 2016 increased 13% to $5.02 billion versus $4.45 billion in 2015. Excluding a negative $61.0 million impact from foreign exchange, 2016 revenues increased 14%. As reported net earnings for the full-year 2016 increased 22% to $551.4 million, or $4.34 per diluted share, compared to $451.8 million, or $3.57 per diluted share in 2015. Adjusted net earnings for the full-year 2016 were $566.1 million, or $4.46 per diluted share. Adjusted 2016 earnings exclude a pre-tax $32.9 million, or $0.12 per diluted share, non-cash fourth quarter goodwill impairment charge related to Backflip Studios. Adjusted full-year 2016 net earnings compares to 2015 adjusted net earnings of $445.0 million, or $3.51 per diluted share, which exclude a pre-tax gain of $9.6 million from the sale of the Company's manufacturing operations in East Longmeadow, MA and Waterford, Ireland.

Hasbro gaming increased by 23%, reflecting the hobby games market trends:

Hasbro's total gaming category, including all gaming revenue, most notably MAGIC: THE GATHERING and MONOPOLY, totaled $518.7 million for the fourth quarter 2016, up 11%, and $1,387.1 million, up 9%, for the full year 2016. Hasbro believes its gaming portfolio is a competitive differentiator and views it in its entirety.

Note that last sentence. Hasbro experienced a decline in Magic: The Gathering sales, and it's likely the leadership team was eager to share other good news in its gaming segment. That would turn out to be beneficial for D&D.

D&D is Doing Well​

Hasbro CEO Brian Goldner did something unusual -- he mentioned Dungeons & Dragons on an investor call. For years, D&D has been overshadowed by Magic: The Gathering's success when Hasbro reported out Wizards of the Coast's wins to investors. The shout-out alone on the Q1 investor call says something about D&D's success:

I also am very happy to see very strong growth for brands like DUNGEONS & DRAGONS and Duel Masters. So, the team at (46:34) has gone to a new storytelling modality for MAGIC and, obviously, impacted the quarter. But they've also done some very good work around DUNGEONS and storytelling and in engagement with that audience. So overall, I would expect that our face-to-face gaming business will continue to perform at a high level and the team's done an absolutely stellar job at both the social media oriented games, as well as some more of our classic games.

Hasbro seems to have a renewed interest in what they term "face-to-face" and "social" games, thanks to its launch of the Hasbro Gaming Crate that focuses on getting people to play together -- a staple of D&D. This is of course Wizards of the Coast's specialty. Investors are noticing.

Jim Cramer on Mad Money led the segment with an old D&D commercial and mentioned the RPG along with Star Wars as brands that allow Hasbro to "bring imagination to life." Cramer interviewed Goldner, who had some nice things to say about D&D:

...and our games business, a raft of great games. Dungeons & Dragons up 50%, Monopoly was of course up, and then of course Magic: The Gathering was up. So great strength in games, 6% growth, 20% growth in the gaming category overall...both Magic: The Gathering and Dungeons & Dragons are on our Twitch programming... Dungeons & Dragons did a very special Twitch channel that they launched with the fans. We've had millions of views on Twitch around Dungeons & Dragons. We're seeing the brand really in resurgence.

So what does this mean for the future of D&D?

The Future of D&D​

D&D's demographics have shifted, according to the Daily News, with more female and older players:

While Wizards of the Coast, which manages the D&D franchise, won't share sales figures, reps tell the Daily News that Millennials (ages 25 to 34) presently make up the largest group of D&D players, followed closely by those aged 35 to 44 and 18 to 24 — and up to 30% of these gamers are girls.

The success of Pathfinder, the Old School Renaissance, mainstream fantasy media, and the nostalgia of gamer kids reaching the 35 to 44 age range in creative fields like movies and television is likely a major factor in the renewed interest in D&D. Todd Kenreck explains on Forbes:

The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King won 11 Oscars in 2004. 16 million people watched the premiere of season 7 of Game of Thrones this year. A serious interest in cinematic fantasy storytelling has steadily reached a fevered pitch and with the game D&D itself seeing a tremendous resurgence, this the perfect time for a Dungeons & Dragons movie or series that puts acting and story first. Like comic books before them, D&D the role-playing game is filled with stories, art, characters and world building that have been largerly left unused by television or film...The game has had impact on so many of the writers, actors, directors and show-runners making television and film today that is might not be a matter of if, but when.

Will Joe Manganiello pull off a film that does D&D justice? A confluence of events -- the rise of social gaming, nostalgia for D&D, and the increasing accessibility of the D&D brand thanks to live streaming -- might be the perfect time for him to pull it off.

 

[aramis erak]

It's almost like making safe business decisions is much smarter than people understand!

I've also noticed a general downward trend with people my age(28) playing video games. They're expensive, hardware is expensive unless you get consoles, they take up a ton of time - time you're spending idle in a chair or couch. I mean, DnD isn't an active game, but I get to see my friends! I get to see my loved ones! It's not really about the game or whatever, it's just us having a good time.

And yet, console sales are up, too.

Same with board games.

 

[aramis erak]

5e does one 'new' thing with HD, you roll them to recover hps on a short rest. 4e didn't have HD, at all. Getting rid of hp/damage scaling would be problematic in 5e, certainly, but using something other than HD to gain & restore hps shouldn't be.

4E had healing surges to restore HP.
4E still had the old meaning of HD, one of the few legacy elements not changed in 4E.

5E retained the prior use of HD as a 1 per level... and made 4E healing surges into a function of HD.

5E rapes the corpses of prior editions for its core...

 

[Tony Vargas]

4E still had the old meaning of HD, one of the few legacy elements not changed in 4E.

Where? All classes got a fixed number of hps at first, and then a smaller number/level. 10/4, 12/5, 15/6, or 17/7. What possibly HD could that correspond to?

 

[discosoc]

I feel like it's on the verge of jumping sharks, tbh. There's so much focus on the media/entertainment side (podcasts, celebrity guests, etc) that people seem to be forgetting they should actually play once in a while. I actually know more people who watch or listen to game sessions than those who actually play on a regular basis. I guess the exposure is good, but the substance is lacking.

 

[Morrus]

I feel like it's on the verge of jumping sharks, tbh. There's so much focus on the media/entertainment side (podcasts, celebrity guests, etc) that people seem to be forgetting they should actually play once in a while. I actually know more people who watch or listen to game sessions than those who actually play on a regular basis. I guess the exposure is good, but the substance is lacking.

My experience is the opposite. I know tons of people who pay D&D, but can't think of anybody who consumes D&D media.

 

[discosoc]

My experience is the opposite. I know tons of people who pay D&D, but can't think of anybody who consumes D&D media.

Maybe it's regional. I just know that finding games or players hasn't seemed to get any easier in the last 5 years, but news and discussions about it are all over the place now.

 

[Morrus]

Maybe it's regional. I just know that finding games or players hasn't seemed to get any easier in the last 5 years, but news and discussions about it are all over the place now.

I think it just goes to show that anecdotes are just anecdotes. It's a wide, wide world.

 

[aramis erak]

Where? All classes got a fixed number of hps at first, and then a smaller number/level. 10/4, 12/5, 15/6, or 17/7. What possibly HD could that correspond to?

THe number of hit points per level is class based, and in the similar proportion as the prior HD. THey don't use the term, but the effects are still evident if one has the wit to look and the knowledge of prior.

Cleric 12 & 5 =D8
Fighter 15 & 6 = d10
Paladin 15 & 6 = d10
Ranger 12 & 5 = d8
Rogue 12 & 5 = d8
Warlock 12 & 5 = d8
Warlord 12 & 5 = d8
Wizard 10 & 4 = d6

Note that the first level equates to 1 max roll plus 1 (rounded down) average), or 2.5 (rounded down) average.

Likewise, the CR system is functionally still HD based, even tho' they're expressed as ranges.

4E is scaffolded upon 3E...

 

[Tony Vargas]

Note that the first level equates to 1 max roll plus 1 (rounded down) average), or 2.5 (rounded down) average.

You'd have to round up in one case, but ok. Still not either HD, the term, nor the original way it was used: to randomly generate hps.

 

[Hussar]

You'd have to round up in one case, but ok. Still not either HD, the term, nor the original way it was used: to randomly generate hps.

To be fair, fixed HP/level started out as an option in 3e. 4e made it part of core and, frankly, so did 5e. You don't have to roll for HP in 5e. They largely kept the idea of fixed HP the same.