Mortal Kombat: Fight (Box Office Predictions)

[Zardnaar]

So fairly soon we are getting 6 potential big budget blockbusters released 1 week apart one after the other.

Fast X
The Little Mermaid
Spiderman into the Spiderverse
Transformers Rise of Beasts
The Flash
Indiana Jones Dial of Destiny.

Some of these potentially are billion dollar movies under normal circumstances.

Just to be clear this is purely about the box office. Total run foreign and domestic. But that's a lot of stepping on toes. What ones do you think will be top 3, bottom 3 or a surprise big hit or dud.

Dud. Fast X. May not flop but it's very expensive with middling tracking. Also coming after a not well received 9.

Hit. Dial of Destiny. Decent trailer, last hurrah with Harrison Ford.


Top 3 Box office take. Based on absolutely nothing pure guesswork/IMHO.

TLM
Indie DoD.
Spiderman.

Bottom 3.
Flash (Ezra, Superhero fatigue, DC)
Transformers (previous entries)
Fast X (inertia)

 

[Snarf Zagyg]

If you want serious predictions, you need to be a little more serious about what the criteria are!

So, let's start with a few issues-

1. Are we talking opening weekend, or are we talking box office while in first-run theaters (prior to on demand)?

2. You're international, but most 'Murikans see domestic box office; assume you want the international?

3. Again, assume you want reported overall box office, not "adjusted" for the difference in revenue from international sources?

4. Finally, and most importantly, are you just asking for overall take, and not expectations? Your question is "Top 3 Box Office take," but your post is talking about, inter alia, the budget of the films (noting the Fast X budget).

The reason this is important is as follows-

Fast 9 was "disappointing".
Into the Spider-Verse was widely considered a massive hit.

Fast 9 has a box office of $726 million during the pandemic.
Spider-Verse had a box office of $385 million before the pandemic.

Expectations and budgets matter when thinking about whether a movie is a hit or a flop or disappointing.

That said, if you're just looking at the overall international box office take, I would order them like this:

The Little Mermaid
Destiny
Fast X
The Flash
Transformers
Spiderman

Reasoning-
1. I think that Spiderman will do well, but it's not going to do Mario well. I think. The prior film didn't hit 400 million. Maybe I'm wrong, and it will be the breakout hit, but I doubt it.

2. Transformers tends to do well internationally.

3. People like the Fast series, and they're pulling in a bunch of stars for it. I don't think it will justify the budget, but I think it will make a lot of money.

4. I don't have a good feel for the Flash movie- I think it will settle in around the same as the prior DC movies (MvS, for example).

5. I think Indiana Jones will either by a relative flop (Crystal Skull), or it will hit that Maverick-level sweet spot.

6. After all of the sturm and the drang, the story and the music of TLM will bring the kids (and some adults) to the movies. That said, I am curious to see the international numbers for it. But if the abomination that was the live-action Lion King can pull in the big bucks, I know better than to bet against this.


Necessary Disclaimer- when reading my prognostications, always remember that when I saw the trailer for Titanic, I said, "No one is going to see this movie. We all know how it ends."

 

[Zardnaar]

If you want serious predictions, you need to be a little more serious about what the criteria are!

So, let's start with a few issues-

1. Are we talking opening weekend, or are we talking box office while in first-run theaters (prior to on demand)?

2. You're international, but most 'Murikans see domestic box office; assume you want the international?

3. Again, assume you want reported overall box office, not "adjusted" for the difference in revenue from international sources?

4. Finally, and most importantly, are you just asking for overall take, and not expectations? Your question is "Top 3 Box Office take," but your post is talking about, inter alia, the budget of the films (noting the Fast X budget).

The reason this is important is as follows-

Fast 9 was "disappointing".
Into the Spider-Verse was widely considered a massive hit.

Fast 9 has a box office of $726 million during the pandemic.
Spider-Verse had a box office of $385 million before the pandemic.

Expectations and budgets matter when thinking about whether a movie is a hit or a flop or disappointing.

That said, if you're just looking at the overall international box office take, I would order them like this:

The Little Mermaid
Destiny
Fast X
The Flash
Transformers
Spiderman

Reasoning-
1. I think that Spiderman will do well, but it's not going to do Mario well. I think. The prior film didn't hit 400 million. Maybe I'm wrong, and it will be the breakout hit, but I doubt it.

2. Transformers tends to do well internationally.

3. People like the Fast series, and they're pulling in a bunch of stars for it. I don't think it will justify the budget, but I think it will make a lot of money.

4. I don't have a good feel for the Flash movie- I think it will settle in around the same as the prior DC movies (MvS, for example).

5. I think Indiana Jones will either by a relative flop (Crystal Skull), or it will hit that Maverick-level sweet spot.

6. After all of the sturm and the drang, the story and the music of TLM will bring the kids (and some adults) to the movies. That said, I am curious to see the international numbers for it. But if the abomination that was the live-action Lion King can pull in the big bucks, I know better than to bet against this.


Necessary Disclaimer- when reading my prognostications, always remember that when I saw the trailer for Titanic, I said, "No one is going to see this movie. We all know how it ends."

Total box office foreign and domestic.

We can look at budgets for any potential flops.

Think you're right about indy. Catch fire or resounding meh.

 

[Zardnaar]

Spiderverse looking good.

 

[GMMichael]

I was going to vote for "Mortal Kombat: Fight." Imagine my disappointment.

 

[payn]

You should know better than to bet against Fast movies!

 

[Enevhar Aldarion]

I was going to vote for "Mortal Kombat: Fight." Imagine my disappointment.

Exactly! I came into this thread to read about a new Mortal Kombat movie that I had not heard about yet.

 

[Zardnaar]

Exactly! I came into this thread to read about a new Mortal Kombat movie that I had not heard about yet.

Oops I did think about sone other titles lol.

Went with MK

 

[GreyLord]

So fairly soon we are getting 6 potential big budget blockbusters released 1 week apart one after the other.

Fast X
The Little Mermaid
Spiderman into the Spiderverse
Transformers Rise of Beasts
The Flash
Indiana Jones Dial of Destiny.

Some of these potentially are billion dollar movies under normal circumstances.

Just to be clear this is purely about the box office. Tital run foreign and domestic. But that's a lot of stepping on toes. What ones do you think will be top 3, bottom 3 or a surprise big hit or dud.

Dud. Fast X. May not flop but it's very expensive with middling tracking. Also coming after a not well received 9.

Hit. Dial of Destiny. Decent trailer, last hurrah with Harrison Ford.


Top 3 Box office take. Based on absolutely nothing pure guesswork/IMHO.

TLM
Indie DoD.
Spiderman.

Bottom 3.
Flash (Ezra, Superhero fatigue, DC)
Transformers (previous entries)
Fast X (inertia)

I haven't looked at the release dates, so not sure.

If Little Mermaid and Spiderman release within a week of each other...oooof. I don't know. Might actually give it to Spiderman. It's a sequel but at least it's original. It's probably just me but I really am not a fan of these live action remakes and I think many may be a little sick of them (they just keep making these live remakes though...one after another after another after another...etc). Both will be seen somewhat as for kids (so stealing each other's thunder), with the adult equation tossed in. Spiderman will appeal to the Men that are still boys at heart, and Little Mermaid will have the nostalgia to appeal to the Woman that are girls at heart...but I see Spiderman edging Mermaid out if released really close together. (could be wrong...obviously).

I love Transformers...but I could see that one losing out if all these other blockbusters are that close together.

I won't bet against a FF movie. Last one came out at the portion of the pandemic when no one was still going (but people were just starting to say it was okay) to the theater and it STILL did well enough to get another sequel.

I'm thinking the Flash could do well...some of it based on nostalgia (with the Keaton Batman), and some of it the culmination of other DC movies.

Indiana Jones is a wild call. Depends on how much good will Disney burned with their Star Wars and how much of that is still feeling burned.

 

[Zardnaar]

I haven't looked at the release dates, so not sure.

If Little Mermaid and Spiderman release within a week of each other...oooof. I don't know. Might actually give it to Spiderman. It's a sequel but at least it's original. It's probably just me but I really am not a fan of these live action remakes and I think many may be a little sick of them (they just keep making these live remakes though...one after another after another after another...etc). Both will be seen somewhat as for kids (so stealing each other's thunder), with the adult equation tossed in. Spiderman will appeal to the Men that are still boys at heart, and Little Mermaid will have the nostalgia to appeal to the Woman that are girls at heart...but I see Spiderman edging Mermaid out if released really close together. (could be wrong...obviously).

I love Transformers...but I could see that one losing out if all these other blockbusters are that close together.

I won't bet against a FF movie. Last one came out at the portion of the pandemic when no one was still going (but people were just starting to say it was okay) to the theater and it STILL did well enough to get another sequel.

I'm thinking the Flash could do well...some of it based on nostalgia (with the Keaton Batman), and some of it the culmination of other DC movies.

Indiana Jones is a wild call. Depends on how much good will Disney burned with their Star Wars and how much of that is still feeling burned.

I haven't looked at the release dates, so not sure.

If Little Mermaid and Spiderman release within a week of each other...oooof. I don't know. Might actually give it to Spiderman. It's a sequel but at least it's original. It's probably just me but I really am not a fan of these live action remakes and I think many may be a little sick of them (they just keep making these live remakes though...one after another after another after another...etc). Both will be seen somewhat as for kids (so stealing each other's thunder), with the adult equation tossed in. Spiderman will appeal to the Men that are still boys at heart, and Little Mermaid will have the nostalgia to appeal to the Woman that are girls at heart...but I see Spiderman edging Mermaid out if released really close together. (could be wrong...obviously).

I love Transformers...but I could see that one losing out if all these other blockbusters are that close together.

I won't bet against a FF movie. Last one came out at the portion of the pandemic when no one was still going (but people were just starting to say it was okay) to the theater and it STILL did well enough to get another sequel.

I'm thinking the Flash could do well...some of it based on nostalgia (with the Keaton Batman), and some of it the culmination of other DC movies.

Indiana Jones is a wild call. Depends on how much good will Disney burned with their Star Wars and how much of that is still feeling burned.

I listed the movies in release order. It's 6 of them in 6 or 7 weeks I think.

Tbh I have no idea what's gonna happen.