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Mortal Kombat: Fight (Box Office Predictions)
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<blockquote data-quote="Snarf Zagyg" data-source="post: 9019734" data-attributes="member: 7023840"><p>If you want serious predictions, you need to be a little more serious about what the criteria are!</p><p></p><p>So, let's start with a few issues-</p><p></p><p>1. Are we talking opening weekend, or are we talking box office while in first-run theaters (prior to on demand)?</p><p></p><p>2. You're international, but most 'Murikans see domestic box office; assume you want the international?</p><p></p><p>3. Again, assume you want reported overall box office, not "adjusted" for the difference in revenue from international sources?</p><p></p><p>4. Finally, and most importantly, are you just asking for overall take, and not expectations? Your question is "Top 3 Box Office take," but your post is talking about, <em>inter alia, </em>the budget of the films (noting the Fast X budget).</p><p></p><p>The reason this is important is as follows-</p><p></p><p>Fast 9 was "disappointing". </p><p>Into the Spider-Verse was widely considered a massive hit.</p><p></p><p>Fast 9 has a box office of $726 million during the pandemic.</p><p>Spider-Verse had a box office of $385 million before the pandemic.</p><p></p><p>Expectations and budgets matter when thinking about whether a movie is a hit or a flop or disappointing.</p><p></p><p>That said, if you're just looking at the overall international box office take, I would order them like this:</p><p></p><p>The Little Mermaid</p><p>Destiny</p><p>Fast X</p><p>The Flash</p><p>Transformers</p><p>Spiderman</p><p></p><p>Reasoning-</p><p>1. I think that Spiderman will do well, but it's not going to do Mario well. I think. The prior film didn't hit 400 million. Maybe I'm wrong, and it will be the breakout hit, but I doubt it.</p><p></p><p>2. Transformers tends to do well internationally. </p><p></p><p>3. People like the Fast series, and they're pulling in a bunch of stars for it. I don't think it will justify the budget, but I think it will make a lot of money.</p><p></p><p>4. I don't have a good feel for the Flash movie- I think it will settle in around the same as the prior DC movies (MvS, for example).</p><p></p><p>5. I think Indiana Jones will either by a relative flop (Crystal Skull), or it will hit that Maverick-level sweet spot. </p><p></p><p>6. After all of the sturm and the drang, the story and the music of TLM will bring the kids (and some adults) to the movies. That said, I am curious to see the international numbers for it. But if the abomination that was the live-action Lion King can pull in the big bucks, I know better than to bet against this. </p><p></p><p></p><p>Necessary Disclaimer- when reading my prognostications, always remember that when I saw the trailer for Titanic, I said, "No one is going to see this movie. We all know how it ends."</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Snarf Zagyg, post: 9019734, member: 7023840"] If you want serious predictions, you need to be a little more serious about what the criteria are! So, let's start with a few issues- 1. Are we talking opening weekend, or are we talking box office while in first-run theaters (prior to on demand)? 2. You're international, but most 'Murikans see domestic box office; assume you want the international? 3. Again, assume you want reported overall box office, not "adjusted" for the difference in revenue from international sources? 4. Finally, and most importantly, are you just asking for overall take, and not expectations? Your question is "Top 3 Box Office take," but your post is talking about, [I]inter alia, [/I]the budget of the films (noting the Fast X budget). The reason this is important is as follows- Fast 9 was "disappointing". Into the Spider-Verse was widely considered a massive hit. Fast 9 has a box office of $726 million during the pandemic. Spider-Verse had a box office of $385 million before the pandemic. Expectations and budgets matter when thinking about whether a movie is a hit or a flop or disappointing. That said, if you're just looking at the overall international box office take, I would order them like this: The Little Mermaid Destiny Fast X The Flash Transformers Spiderman Reasoning- 1. I think that Spiderman will do well, but it's not going to do Mario well. I think. The prior film didn't hit 400 million. Maybe I'm wrong, and it will be the breakout hit, but I doubt it. 2. Transformers tends to do well internationally. 3. People like the Fast series, and they're pulling in a bunch of stars for it. I don't think it will justify the budget, but I think it will make a lot of money. 4. I don't have a good feel for the Flash movie- I think it will settle in around the same as the prior DC movies (MvS, for example). 5. I think Indiana Jones will either by a relative flop (Crystal Skull), or it will hit that Maverick-level sweet spot. 6. After all of the sturm and the drang, the story and the music of TLM will bring the kids (and some adults) to the movies. That said, I am curious to see the international numbers for it. But if the abomination that was the live-action Lion King can pull in the big bucks, I know better than to bet against this. Necessary Disclaimer- when reading my prognostications, always remember that when I saw the trailer for Titanic, I said, "No one is going to see this movie. We all know how it ends." [/QUOTE]
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