Piratecat
Sesquipedalian
I ran into this over on Gamasutra. It's written for computer game designers, but it's essential for DMs too; it's a lot easier to avoid TPKs when you can calculate the chance of multiple successful saves! Look for follow-up articles on statistics for game designers, then how to tie them together.
http://www.gamasutra.com/features/20061018/sigman_01.shtml
Amusing note: this was brought home to me when I was writing Of Sound Mind, and Sagiro pointed out that an average party had something like a 60% chance of someone dying just from climbing down a rope. . .
Anyways, hope this is useful to some folks.
http://www.gamasutra.com/features/20061018/sigman_01.shtml
Amusing note: this was brought home to me when I was writing Of Sound Mind, and Sagiro pointed out that an average party had something like a 60% chance of someone dying just from climbing down a rope. . .
Anyways, hope this is useful to some folks.