Pathfinder 1E Question for the Paizo folks regarding D&D's state of today
I am saying that if you consider "D&D" a business that includes lots of different expressions (tabletop RPG, boardgames, movies, comic books, novels, etc.), the "tabletop RPG" category is not necessarily the most profitable, or the aspect with the lowest investment.
Even beyond that, "tabletop RPG" is not intrinsically tied to "paper books," so it might be possible to separate the "D&D experience" from the low-margin standard distribution "book" method to the high-margin direct-to-consumer subscription-based "content" model, which seems to be at least a part of what they are doing.
My guess is that this transition is well in progress, and is behind a lot of what has been going on with the brand lately. I don't think D&D is going away or anything crazy like that, but I think a lot of it is going to go behind an online paywall, and eventually I think a great deal of D&D play is going to take place online.
--Erik
The thing is that D&D to remain relevant as a brand needs constant retailer presence. Perhaps, the minimum of what it needs to achieve that is a monthly magazine in paper format like what Dungeon and Dragon used to be.
It is rather telling that the video game and software industry make sure to get some real world exposure that way.
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I wonder how much actually constitutes "a great deal", however.
I can safely say that throughout my entire lifespan, 0% of my D&D will be played online. If I can't get people to sit down at a table and play D&D with me, we'll play Savage Worlds or CoC or Traveller or something else. And if the day comes that I can't get anybody to sit down at a table and play a role playing game with me, I'll just play a minis wargame or a boardgame instead. And if the day comes when tables themselves are abolished and no one will ever sit down with me to play anything, then I'll just do something else with my time.
But I refuse to play D&D or any other tabletop game online. I'll play in my gf's freeform forum game and I'll play WoW or the equivalent, but I won't take something that is made of reality and trade it for something made of electrons. If it's already intended to be made of electrons, then fine. But I'm not trading down. That would be like using Skype with someone who was in the same room with you... just turn around and look at them! It doesn't make any sense.
richtrickey
First Post
I don't know that the game needs constant brick and mortar retail presence, at least in the form we've grown used to. Think about WoW. You've got the starter disk boxes and prepaid reload cards, that's about it (not counting themed swag that doesnt really affect the game, but keeps the brand publicized, D&D could use more of that too, but its another issue).
So if Erik Mona's correct, and I think its a strong possibility, given WotC's actions and stated intent of bringing the game to a virtual tabletop over the last decade, all they really need to have in stores is a product like the Red Box Essentials to get you started. Prepaid booster cards for your DDI membership would work too. There's also the strong possibility of more random card packs, like the player cards they're doing now. Random monsters, spells, items, etc. The model works well for them with M:tG, no reason to think they won't finally confirm the fears some of us had in 1999 and "magicize" D&D.
Let's also not overlook the introduction of products like the Castle Ravenloft boardgame. If the core D&D game is going online, these kind of products would be good gateways for the tabletop gamers, especially if, like the Dungeon! and Fantasy Forest games TSR put out in the late 70s and early 80s, the games contain a set of "dummies" rules for using the product without knowledge of D&D 4e. Dungeon! and FF both had a feeling of being "just D&D enough" to get players interested in the genre, and the related RPGs, but were easily playable by family game night type players with no wargame or rpg experience.
Later accessories for D&D, like the Dragon's Den adventure set for Cyclopedia era Basic D&D (early 90s) also included similar "dummies" rules, that let you introduce new players to the ideas in D&D without forcing them to learn the rules and role up a PC.
As the complexity of the game increases (again, not trolling for a basic D&D vs 4e flamewar, but there is no arguing that 4e is more complex), the need for intro products like these is even greater now than it was in 1980 when we all grabbed up a copy of Dungeon! And if you can bring in the new players with a product that will also appeal to the established customer, even better. Meaning, those who have played 4e since day 1, and aren't rabid collectors like me, aren't all that likely to keep buying D&D Essentials Red Box type products (unless the products remain high value with limited edition minis and dice and durable dungeon tiles etc), but almost all players will at least consider a boardgame/uberadventure like Castle Ravenloft (especially if it also, as it appears to, includes a bunch of high value swag)
We don't need to get into comparing the actual gameplay of 4e with WoW, it's flamewar bait, but noone can deny that WotC has been envious of WoW's huge success and wants to emulate some of it. It's also foolish to think that, as Erik pointed out, a paperless or lesspaper publishing model isn't something to strive for, from the publisher's point of view.
Aside from the speculated revamping of the business model and new approaches to marketing D&D, the other real possibility presented in the changes at WotC is that Hasbro is finally cracking down and D&D's days are numbered.
Glade Riven
Adventurer
You can't just slap something behind a paywall and expect it to work. DDI needs to provide value that people want, and so far (for many) it has fallen short.
WoW is to be eclipsed by some other product and most probably the same will happen to the brand name in the end -although it is not a given regarding the last one. Blizzard operates with this in mind.
If they intend to keep the brand name of Warcraft relevant after WoW has been eclipsed, well at that point they will have to support this by various means.
richtrickey
First Post
Of course, no product reigns forever. But. Warcraft was around for a long time (20 years?) before they turned it into WoW. That transformation, and the timing of it just as Everquest was fading, kept Warcraft alive and even launched it to unimagined heights. Blizzard has shown innovation (and a bit of luck), and since WotC really hasn't since the revamping of the game in 2000 and the introduction of the OGL idea, they could do worse than try and emulate Blizzard's approach.
Hussar
Legend
Over on Fear the Boot, they did an interview with Ryan Dancey some time ago. Dancey talked about the market research WOTC did going into 3e and one of things that stuck out was that D&D was largely (at the time anyway) a suburban thing. People, like me, out in the country lack the population base to get a group together and people who live in the city have too many other options competing for their time.
The other big demographic bubble was high school and college ages since these correlate to people having large amounts of free time and have a fairly easy time of finding like minded individuals. Imagine trying to go out and rebuild an entirely new group of gamers of people in their 30's or 40's from your co-workers.
Sure, some people can do that, but, most can't.
The online option breaks that down. Now, you can find a game and a group, that fits with your tastes and, just as importantly, fits with your schedule.
That opens D&D (and RPG's) up to entirely new market areas that have traditionally been pretty closed. I can easily see why RPG companies want to get into a more online approach. It makes too much economic sense not to.
Sucks for those who don't want online stuff in their RPG's though.
samursus
Explorer
Dunno if this is taking the thread too far off course but:
The mentioning of the online aspect is really hitting home with me right now. I am struggling to keep together a RL group of players with different priorities, schedules and (I am now starting to see) not-so-compatible personalities. Games have been few and far between the last few months. Ever since I got into the D&D VT Beta, I have had the chance to play around 6 or 7 sessions in the last 3 weeks! And tomorrow I am starting a Scales of War campaign with 4-6 other very interested people.
I love playing games face to face, but as one of the aforementioned 30-40 year olds, its becoming harder to find time and players. I think thats what attracted me to WOW years ago (since managed to kick the habit). Before this, I hadn't entered into the online RPG offerings (Maptools, Fantasy Grounds) because of price, learning curve, workload involved or finding players. Even now, in Beta, the VT solved most of these issues in one fell swoop. It still needs some work, but the possibilities are very promising.
A digital D&D would be used by me. It would be nice to still have the books, but that is not my call.
