Re-examining Sure Strike and Careful Attack

[Rechan]

But if you're only looking at the raw stats you'll never get a complete picture.

When discussing to-hit probability and the math involved, the issue isn't the complete picture, but just the raw numbers.

The ongoing damage/miss damage of dailies and various powers relate to damage, not hitting.

This reminds me of those weird arena fight scenarios without any terrain features where two pcs trade blows until one falls over.
It's something that will never happen in a real game and thus any data you get from analyzing that scenario is meaningless.

You'd be surprised how often there is combat in places with no terrain to consider.

 

[jtrowell]

I also "fixed" twin strike by forcing it to target two different creatures (mirroring dual strike that must target one creature with both attacks), and for Careful/Sure Strike, I modified those powers to make a critical strike on a roll of 19-20.

This is still (slightly) less average damage that even a basic attack (exept maybe with high critical weapons or at epic levels), but it improve the power while maintaining the original flavor, and combined with the twin strike fix, five back to careful strike its niche as a precision power when you really want to hit one target

 

[Jhaelen]

You'd be surprised how often there is combat in places with no terrain to consider.

Well, since I am currently the DM I control whether terrain is involved or not. And therefore terrain is always important - in my campaign

 

[BobTheNob]

Two problems with this thinking:
1. Whether the fighter hits or misses, he can mark his target and set up Combat Challenge. And average damage calculations show Reaping Strike to be superior.
2. One way to think of Twin Strike is that you are rolling twice to hit one target. The math works out so this becomes akin to around a +3 bonus (not sure the exact average for rolling two d20s, but I know others on the board have done this). The odds are better with Twin Strike that you will apply your Hunter's Quarry damage.

True the odds with twin strike are better, but that depends on the odds in the first place. As the difficulty increases (i.e. target armor class is starting to outweigh to hit) the +2 to hit starts to outweigh the double roll. Note : It does need to get extremely tough though.

p.s. The ranger in our party uses this all the time to get that extra accuracy and ensure quarry. I once took the chance to remind him he was forgoing alot of potential damage so he gave another power a go...and missed by 1! He loves this power

 

[Branduil]

True the odds with twin strike are better, but that depends on the odds in the first place. As the difficulty increases (i.e. target armor class is starting to outweigh to hit) the +2 to hit starts to outweigh the double roll. Note : It does need to get extremely tough though.

p.s. The ranger in our party uses this all the time to get that extra accuracy and ensure quarry. I once took the chance to remind him he was forgoing alot of potential damage so he gave another power a go...and missed by 1! He loves this power

Is he aware that Twin Strike does a much better job of ensuring quarry for all but the highest ACs?

 

[Saeviomagy]

True the odds with twin strike are better, but that depends on the odds in the first place. As the difficulty increases (i.e. target armor class is starting to outweigh to hit) the +2 to hit starts to outweigh the double roll. Note : It does need to get extremely tough though.

If I recall, it needs to get up to requiring a 19-20 to hit, and even at that point, without a stat bonus of +0, you'll still do more damage with twin strike.

 

[Mad Hamish]

True the odds with twin strike are better, but that depends on the odds in the first place. As the difficulty increases (i.e. target armor class is starting to outweigh to hit) the +2 to hit starts to outweigh the double roll. Note : It does need to get extremely tough though.

Based on my quick calcs in excell it's extremely rare
Working off a base roll to hit needed
of x (ingoring 1 or less)
unadjusted
chance of missing with an attack is chance of rolling less than the needed number or 1 - (20 - needed + 1)/20
check
2 needed -> 1 - (20-2+1)/20 = 1-19/20 = 0.05
11 needed -> 1 - (20-11 + 1)/20 = 1 - 10/20 = 0.50
20 needed -> 1 - (20 - 20 + 1)/20 = 1 - 1/20 = 0.95
which looks right

careful strike has chance of hit of +0.10 from the normal attack

(until you'd get a base attack needing a 21 to hit where careful strike gives 0.10 vs 0.05 and 22 to hit where they are both 0.05 to hit - although in both these cases careful strike would still do a crit while a normal attack wouldn't)

The chance of at least one twin strike attack hitting is
1 - (chance of miss^2)

for a roll to hit of 11 that gives careful strike a 60% chance of hitting and twin strike a 75% chance of hitting at least once (including 15% chance of hitting twice)

for a roll to hit of 18 that gives careful strike a 25% chance of hitting and twin strike a 27.75 % chance of hitting

for a roll to hit of 19 careful strike has a 20% chance of hitting while twin strike has a 19% chance of at least one hit (but twin strike gets back most of that damage by having a 1% chance of hitting twice -> not all the damage because quarry doesn't apply twice. OTOH the chance of 2 crits per attack might more than make that up, I'd need to check the maths there and it'd probably vary widely depending on gear and feats)

for a base hit on a 20 twin strike has a 15% chance of hitting, twin strike 9.75%
for a base hit on a 21 twin strike has a 10% chance of hitting, twin strike 9.75%
for a base hit on a 22 twin strike has a 5% chance of hitting, twin strike 9.75%

So careful strike is more likely to hit than twin strike when you need a base of 19, 20 or 21 to hit.

p.s. The ranger in our party uses this all the time to get that extra accuracy and ensure quarry. I once took the chance to remind him he was forgoing alot of potential damage so he gave another power a go...and missed by 1! He loves this power

Maybe, but that doesn't mean it's a good option.
People get all sorts of strange ideas.

 

[Mad Hamish]

If I recall, it needs to get up to requiring a 19-20 to hit, and even at that point, without a stat bonus of +0, you'll still do more damage with twin strike.

Neither twin strike or careful strike add the stat bonus to damage.

 

[Cadfan]

When discussing to-hit probability and the math involved, the issue isn't the complete picture, but just the raw numbers.

Half of me wants to agree with you, but the other half of me feels like we'd have heard something by now from people playing at high level if this were really a problem. I know high level is less popular, and some people are playing up from the bottom the hard way and haven't got there yet, but someone somewhere should have given high level play a shot by now and noticed if they suddenly couldn't hit anything.

I kind of wonder if the assumptions about typical AC at high levels aren't a bit off, possibly due to the high number of high level solos and elites. I don't have any numbers to back that up, but... this is kind of a "dog that didn't bark" thing. The dog should have barked by now.

 

[KarinsDad]

All your examples really are circumstantial, rather than raw stats. Remember, all those things are available to PCs at level 1, too. We're talking raw to-hit.

Yes, they are circumstantial. That's a major portion of the game.

If you drop circumstantial, you aren't talking about the game.

And actually, most of the circumstantial synergy bonuses are not available to PCs at level one or are not available as frequently at level one (e.g. combat advantage happens a lot more at higher levels than at low levels due to powers that give it, and due to more shifts and slides).

I kind of wonder if the assumptions about typical AC at high levels aren't a bit off, possibly due to the high number of high level solos and elites. I don't have any numbers to back that up, but... this is kind of a "dog that didn't bark" thing. The dog should have barked by now.

Precisely.

Here are the defenses and types of the 29th and 30th level monsters in the MM:

Lvl 29, AC 43, Fort 48, Reflex 40, Will 45, Average Def. 44, Elite, Godforged Colossus
Lvl 29, AC 45, Fort 45, Reflex 43, Will 41, Average Def. 43.5, Solo, Runescribed Dracolich
Lvl 30, AC 43, Fort 49, Reflex 38, Will 32, Average Def. 40.5, Solo, Tarrasque
Lvl 30, AC 48, Fort 48, Reflex 43, Will 42, Average Def. 45.25, Solo, Ancient Red Dragon

The reason the defenses are so high is because these creatures are elites and solos. But, the solos here have a weakness of Will Def and the Elite has a weakness of Reflex (the Tarrasque has both weaknesses).

Yup. The Fighter might have a hard time with these creatures. That is why the game system has a Defender, a Leader, a Striker, and a Controller concept. Each role will be less effective against certain monsters and monster groups.

That's balance. Which monster groups a given role is effective against is circumstance.


There are many examples of powers that give bonuses to attack rolls. Bless is a second level power. It does not exist at first level. It gives a +1 bonus to all attack rolls until the end of the encounter. If the 30th level Cleric is fighting an Ancient Red Dragon and has Bless available, it would be a good choice of a power at some point in the encounter.

There are 6 Cleric, 1 Fighter, 2 Paladin, 2 Ranger, 1 Rogue, 2 Warlock, and 7 Warlord powers that give a bonus to hit. There are PrC powers and abilities that give bonuses to hit. There are feats that give circumstantial bonuses to hit. There are powers and item powers that give a penalty to enemy defenses or give combat advantage to an ally.

If the defenses of the creatures did not rise slightly faster than the "raw stats" of the PCs, then high level would be a joke. And as more and more splat books come out, it would become more and more of a joke as even more ways to change the odds become available.

But, one cannot look at it in the sterile glass bubble of raw stats only.