Pathfinder 1E Ryan Dancey Predicts Pathfinder RPG in '06

[Arashi Ravenblade]

I dont think Pathfinder will crush 4e. I think it will offer healthy competition and give those of us who have no hope in 4e being good something to get excited about.
There are things I like about 4e and mostly things i dont. Same goes for the Pathfinder alpha. Key difference Pathfinder has more that I like and is compatible with the thousands of dollars Ive already sunk into the game.

 

[King of Old School]

For the record, I score myself as follows:

Overall, 3 hits, 3 misses, 2 "passes". As prognostication goes, I would not call that a very successful series of predictions. I comfort myself though by knowing that Wizards will likely end up canceling all the new stuff it made in 2007, and that Games Workshop will be merged, taken private, or combined with something else soon, so in the end I expect to be "late", not "wrong" on that item.

You must be using a very different definition of "hit" from the one found in the dictionary. Looking at the predictions here, I don't see a single hit that's relevant to RPGs (you were right about year-end layoffs at Upper Deck, which in modern business is about as insightful as predicting the eastern rise of the sun, but wrong about Upper Deck making a move into RPGs). You were spectacularly wrong about both Wizards and White Wolf.

KoOS

 

[King of Old School]

Which part of me saying "many aspects of 4E I have seen in other games released under the OGL." did you gloss over here? I specifically said that 4E sees many things rolled in from other OGL games and anything from UA that ended up in the SRD that was first in another company's product destroys your theory too.

First, you're missing the point that these incorporations have absolutely nothing to do with the OGL and would have happened regardless, just as D&D 3.0 used stuff from non-OGL games. Second, name one thing from UA that was generated by a third-party producer and was incorporated into the main SRD ruleset, the way Dancey predicted would happen with the OGL (Wizards' own UA content doesn't count, which I thought was obvious but apparently not).

Link? Proof? Evidence? I see more gaming books on shelves now than I did back in 97 or even 99.

Well, Dancey says so himself here.

KoOS

 

[Arrond Hess]

We'll know in four years!

Give it a little longer, I'd say. You see, 4th Edition won't do as well as expected, so Hasbro will take the scalpel to WotC, selling off the D&D name. Which, of course, Paizo will be waiting on the side to scoop it up. It will only be then, that we will be 5th Edition.

(OK, so that was some one really whack-job of a speculation. But boy would I crap my pants if it came true... LOL)

 

[Arrond Hess]

Traditions matter but sacred cow steak is a tasty, tasty thing indeed They reimagined many things in D&D yes, to which I say good. The game had gotten to a point where way too much was just accepted automatically "oh look trolls, we need to blah blah". Yes, that's out of character knowledge possibly, but the point is that everything is so well known.

It goes back to that vaunted "Sense of Wonder" that some people seem to wax on endlessly about. They're trying to make things more interesting again, which I'm kinda fine with. That goes double for the Realms. It was too well explored, too many products had detailed it down to very fine grain detail. Have a big event happen, then shoot 100 years into the future of the setting. Suddenly not everything in the Realms is as you once knew it. I know many people see these changes and just get mad b/c things are changing. I see things changing and I'm excited at the sense of newness.

I will give 4th Ed. credit for that. I really do like what I am seeing with whats being done with the FR setting.

I have been a fan of Greenwood and his world back from the days when we got glimpses into it from Dragon Magazine, right on into the plethora of book that have been created to support it. Now, from what I have been seeing with the spellplague and how the world has recovered, really does add a new sense of wonder to this classic setting.

 

[SSquirrel]

First, you're missing the point that these incorporations have absolutely nothing to do with the OGL and would have happened regardless, just as D&D 3.0 used stuff from non-OGL games. Second, name one thing from UA that was generated by a third-party producer and was incorporated into the main SRD ruleset, the way Dancey predicted would happen with the OGL (Wizards' own UA content doesn't count, which I thought was obvious but apparently not).

Now if these innovations hadn't been produced by the 3PP, who si to say that WotC would have come up w/the idea on their own. Wow, big leap here, they borrowed what was created in an OGL came and incorporated it int the new game. That has EVERYTHING to do with the OGL. Same way Blizzard updates WoW and includes the functionality of some of the more popular addons in the core game.

A great example of co-opting something from other products was in 2003 Arcana Unearthed (Monte's game) had racial levels for the core races. Lo and behold, similar racial levels are found in UA. No the levels are not the same, then again humans are the only race that overlaps.

Well, Dancey says so himself here.

KoOS

Didn't you just get done telling Dancey he is always wrong? Like, one post before this one? Yet now you want to use him as a reference. Go figure. I never said there were more gaming STORES, I said I see more gaming product on the shelves when I go shopping now than I did back then. Yes I know, all anecdotal, you see far less yourself, blah blah. I was merely relating my personal experience shopping

 

[King of Old School]

Now if these innovations hadn't been produced by the 3PP, who si to say that WotC would have come up w/the idea on their own. Wow, big leap here, they borrowed what was created in an OGL came and incorporated it int the new game. That has EVERYTHING to do with the OGL. Same way Blizzard updates WoW and includes the functionality of some of the more popular addons in the core game.

Okay, the point seems to be sailing over your head like a F-18 on full afterburner, so I'm going to break it down into little chunks and hopefully that will help.

* Dancey claimed that the OGL would allow the D&D ruleset to improve because WotC could take the best of the open rules and incorporate them into D&D proper, the same way that open-source software applications can take chunks of code from other open-source software and everybody can use the best stuff.

* That didn't happen. Period.

* D&D has incorporated ideas -- not open rules, ideas -- found in other games into both 3.X and 4e D&D, completely without reference to the OGL. Just like D&D did before the OGL was ever imagined, just like other games did before and during the OGL and will continue to do long after the OGL dies the death of a small brown dog, just like non-P&P games do (as you yourself point out).

* Ergo, Dancey was wrong.

Didn't you just get done telling Dancey he is always wrong? Like, one post before this one? Yet now you want to use him as a reference. Go figure.

I said his predictions were almost always wrong, not his observations. I give him credit for being able to see and read as well as any of the rest of us.

I never said there were more gaming STORES, I said I see more gaming product on the shelves when I go shopping now than I did back then. Yes I know, all anecdotal, you see far less yourself, blah blah. I was merely relating my personal experience shopping

If there are fewer stores able to stay in business selling RPGs, and fewer companies able to stay in business producing RPGs, and fewer RPGs published regularly, I think its safe to say that the industry is in decline... which it is, compared to the pre-3e period. The presence of a huge swathe of D&D supplements of variable quality doesn't change any of that.

KoOS

 

[SSquirrel]

Okay, the point seems to be sailing over your head like a F-18 on full afterburner, so I'm going to break it down into little chunks and hopefully that will help.

Nice to see an interest in civil discussion on ENWorld. Why not just go ahead and call me a moron?

* Dancey claimed that the OGL would allow the D&D ruleset to improve because WotC could take the best of the open rules and incorporate them into D&D proper, the same way that open-source software applications can take chunks of code from other open-source software and everybody can use the best stuff.

* That didn't happen. Period.

* Ergo, Dancey was wrong.

WotC's choice. We can't force them to take anything and include it wholecloth in their game. They were completely ABLE to tho. Obviously they felt many IDEAS generated by other companies were pretty good considering versions of them are in 4E.

If there are fewer stores able to stay in business selling RPGs, and fewer companies able to stay in business producing RPGs, and fewer RPGs published regularly, I think its safe to say that the industry is in decline... which it is, compared to the pre-3e period. The presence of a huge swathe of D&D supplements of variable quality doesn't change any of that.

The model of a gaming store worked for many years, but it didn't change to match society. CD sales are down but people are buying tons of tracks off iTunes. The music industry is slowly changing to avoid its own death. The game store itself has been in a downward spiral for about 15 years now. The game industry seems to be doing better to me than it was prior to 3E being released. Yes there are less stores that are heavily focused on gaming stores, but of the 6 or 7 big chain book stores in the Louisville area only 1 carries no gaming books at all. We also have 1 store that is basically RPG/War Machine, another store that is board games and RPGs and a game/comic/used cd store. Throw in Book & Music Exchange and the couple of Half Price Books I've been to and you have a pretty good gaming situation going here.

Is everywhere like Louisville? No I'm sure they aren't. Iowa City IA used to have 2 game stores, a store that was science kits, minis and the best RPG selection in town, and another game store or 2 up in Cedar Rapids. Plus all the B&N and such in the area all carried gaming products. All the game shops closed up within 4 months of each other and only one has opened since, I hope it's still there, been a bit over a year since I was there. I can only speak from my purchasing experience.

Heck, look back to before 3E was released. How many places could you go online and order pdfs of gaming products? How many books get bought from Amazon or one of the brick and mortar chain's online store every day? The industry has changed, but I don't see it as a declining industry. It merely has more and better (than in the past) competition. Video games that are closing on human appearance, the internet, movies, reading (ok not likely but hey!), raising kids, being a kid, school, work. Then there is the economy w/raised prices everywhere. The game industry is likely suffering from the depressed pocketbook of individuals who have to spend more of their entertainment money on needed items now. All industries are feeling that pinch tho.

 

[Wicht]

Heck, look back to before 3E was released. How many places could you go online and order pdfs of gaming products? How many books get bought from Amazon or one of the brick and mortar chain's online store every day? The industry has changed, but I don't see it as a declining industry. It merely has more and better (than in the past) competition.

Ten years ago, all my gaming purchases were made at brick and mortar stores.

Today I order almost everything from paizo, ebay, or amazon. The selection is better and the prices tend to be better as well.

This does not mean I spend less today than ten years ago, just the opposite.

It's just one persons experience of course but I have to agree that the decline of the FNGS does not equate to the decline of gaming.

 

[RyanD]

You must be using a very different definition of "hit" from the one found in the dictionary.

Fates of the One Eye'd Kings

Wizards of the Coast

I'll call my prediction for Wizards of the Coast a miss. They actually did release a couple of new things in 2007. Keep watching in 2008.

Upper Deck

I get a hit for this prediction. Essentially everything I suggested would happen has happened.

Games Workshop

Unfortunately, I have to chalk this up as a miss. Unbelievably, nobody stepped up and took Games Workshop away from its current management team in 2007, despite a disastrous year in the market where it lost 60% of its value. Tom Kirby, the CEO, did step down, and a big restructuring plan was announced. There are several private equity firms looking at the opportunity, but so far, the perceived risks outweigh the perceived rewards, and nobody has made a bid yet.

Privateer Press

I can't call this a hit or a miss, since the "prediction" was an option, not a definite. This is a pass. They're still growing, they're still healthy, and they're still dealing with the transition from small to big company.

WizKids

I am going to put this in the "pass" category. WizKids continues to show a public face of supporting hobby game retailers, but they are making all the right moves to shift their business out of the hobby and into the mass. All other issues aside, the year-long battle between Upper Deck & Eisner for control of WizKids parent TOPPs rendered much of my speculation moot. Nobody inside WizKids was able to do anything strategic in 2007 once the takeover battle started due to the corporate shenanigans going on in New York.

White Wolf

This is a miss. White Wolf did not make a strategic decision to exit the hobby gaming industry in 2007.

Review

1 hit, 3 misses and 2 "passes".

Mass Market Titans

I am going to call this a hit. Mattel did a deal to buy the games made by Out of the Box Publishing. Hasbro & Mattel did skirmish with collectible games all year, but neither over committed to any line. And neither succeeded in bringing the next Pokemon to market.

Bankrupt Distributors

This is a hit too. ABC Northwest went out of business.

Spider Sense

This was a miss. If anything crawled out of the woodwork in 2007, it certainly did not set the hobby gaming world afire.

My former consulting partner Luke summed up my 2007 predictions as "when not if", which I have to agree with in retrospect.

RyanD