Scenario - 2009: WOTC drops D&D product line - Death or Resurrection for RPG hobby?

[The Hound]

Fast forward to the Summer of 2009:

Press Release:
Wizards of the Coast June 28 2009:
It is with regret that we inform our legions of loyal customers that as of July 1st of this year, Wizards of the Coast will end its long career as supplier and publisher of our venerable line of Dungeons and Dragons role playing products............Low subscription figures and advertising revenue from the online versions of Dungeon and Dragon magazines plus flat sales of the entire 4th edition based D&D product line have caused our parent company, Hasbro (Praise be their name) to review its accounts and............attempts to resurrect the print versions of Dungeon and Dragon unfortunately failed due to lack of interest in the part of Paizo Publishing, Kenzerco, and others........
.........In retrospect, the cancellation of Dungeon and Dragon Magazines combined with difficulties in ramping up the online replacements proved to have been a major stumbling block........elimination of the newstand, supermarket, and gaming store presence of these magazines eliminated a recruiting stream for new players, writing talent, and artistic talent to the hobby........unfortunately, the Dungeons and Dragons brand was not in line with Hasbro's
(Praise be their name) new major marketing thrust involving MMORPG based collectible non violent card games for teenage girls......We leave our doors open for potential licencees to continue the venerable D&D franchise, but there are at this moment no negotiations pending. ..

WOTC drops the D&D product line. Worst case scenario or best case scenario? Dream or Death Knell for the tabletop RPG hobby? YOU decide!

 

[Whizbang Dustyboots]

Since D&D makes up, what, 60 percent or more of all RPG sales, it's the end of the FLGS in pretty short order, other than Games Workshop-only stores.

Even if you hate D&D or hate WotC, this isn't a scenario anyone should fantasize about.

 

[rkwoodard]

from what I understand

Hasbro is not going to tell WOTC what to do to make money. They just look at WOTC bottom line. Whatever happens to D&D is squarely on the people in charge of the WOTC Division(?). All of the above is pure conjecture.


But lets continue with Fantasy.

In 2009 Hasbro decides to take D&D away from WOTC and merges it with HEROSCAPE creating a non-random miniature & RPG game.

Heroscape D20: Into the Dungeon

I am totally onboard.

RK

 

[Aus_Snow]

In the context of the question and the poll, I went with 'nothing changes'. I think that'd be about right.

 

[delericho]

In the worst-case scenario, the Digital Initiative utterly tanks, and Hasbro happen to have a bad quarter at just the wrong time, leading to some 'suit' looking for underperforming areas to cancel, so they can "focus on their core business". The D&D line item happens to look really bad at just the wrong time... and it's gone.

What happens then:

1) If Hasbro sell the line (unlikely, I think), we see another new edition in a very short time, harkening back to the 3.5 design, reversing much of what was done in 4e, and trying really hard to pretend the last two years didn't happen. Chances are, the hobby takes a beating, but gradually recovers and goes on as before.

2) If Hasbro don't sell the line, they might try to license it out. This will lead to massive instability in the market - licensing it would be a really bad move (since there would be fees to pay, and the SRD means there is little to gain except the name, and since if you make it a success they'll likely reclaim it in five years when the license expires), except that if someone else licenses it then they have the name in the industry, and the massive competitive advantage that comes from that.

3) If Hasbro neither sell nor license out D&D (or if whoever licenses it fails to leverage the IP properly), but a company happened to have been working on a "3.75e" in secret, such that it's ready to go just as D&D dies, then that company will reap the immense rewards of taking that gamble, as most of the market move over to that system, and things go on as before.

4) If, however, multiple companies are working on their own "3.75e" systems, or if no-one is but they immediately start when D&D is cancelled, we will see massive fragmentation of the market, followed by a slow and inevitable decline as all the various parties beat one another to death. Tabletop dies.

5) Alternatively, the various players in the d20 marketplace might get together and work on a single "3.75e" standard between them, all releasing compatible core rulebooks and support material, and going from there. That just might work... but I think it is extremely unlikely.

6) If Hasbro neither sell nor license D&D, and no-one is working on a "3.75e", and no-one develops a "3.75e" then the market will limp on for a while with other systems, but will be badly fragmented, and will rapidly die out. Tabletop dies.

Personally, I think the most likely scenario is #4. I don't see Hasbro selling the D&D IP, and I doubt they would license it for a fee any of the existing companies could pay, especially given the existence of the SRD. I doubt any company is seriously working on a "3.75e" at the present time, but I expect a whole bunch of them would rush one out were D&D to die. Unfortunately, I believe that the 'format war' that would then ensue is inevitable, and will kill all parties.

I really hope the DI doesn't fail.

 

[DragonLancer]

A fragmented market, no major marketing engine - the hobby begins a slow, inevitable decline.

I go with this option. D&D is the staple entry game for a lot of people getting into roleplaying games. Its used as a platform to jump to other games. Without D&D around, I think the roleplaying industry would very quickly (give it a couple years) be pushing up the daisys.

 

[Daztur]

the hobby begins a slow, inevitable decline.

Starts? The hobby's been slowly declining for years and years and years. I know this forum isn't all that representative but look how big of a chunk of us have played 1st ed. Not too much new blood...

 

[WhatGravitas]

I go with this option. D&D is the staple entry game for a lot of people getting into roleplaying games. Its used as a platform to jump to other games. Without D&D around, I think the roleplaying industry would very quickly (give it a couple years) be pushing up the daisys.

Same opinion here. White Wolf may survive a bit longer, changing RPGs completely to cooperative storytelling (and perhaps name it that way) and some LARPs, but I guess that would be the last hurrah for RPGs in about 1 decade, if WotC ditches D&D (and knowing Hasbro's inclination "to sit on IP").

Cheers, LT.

 

[Switchblade]

I doubt it would affect LARPs in the slightest. Quite a lot of larpers I know don't play tabletop, some hate tabletop and a few didn't even know it existed and were baffled as I tried to explain pen and paper roleplaying to them. Lots of larpers sign up in university to larp societies as they like the sound of that and I've found tabletop recruits from larp as much as the other way round because of it, it's easier to sell an idea of hitting people with swords for a weekend than to sit in and roll dice. Also I find that far more are familiar with Shadowrun than DnD oddly enough.

I also doubt the removal of White Wolf or DnD would affect new comers, people would be more willing to try other systems so new players are more likely to be introduced into one of the better systems from the start and less likely to quit after the first game as it would be easier to find someone playing a system to suit them. Had DnD been my first system I doubt I'd be RPGing today, I'd have stuck with the wargames.

The advantage DnD has isn't the rules or the background, it is the fact that everyone seems to know it so it is easier to get a game together as you don't need to go through the rules. This disadvantages games that I percieve as better as most roleplayers, myself included, are lazy and if given the choice between trying something new with a good rep or playing something mediocre but requires no new learning most pick the latter. Hence most newcomers stick with DnD as there first system propergating the cycle.

Plus just because there are no new books doesn't mean it won;t be played. I play 3rd Ed shadowrun and ars, even though they are on their 4th editions as I prefere 3rd ed. A new edition or no new books doesn't mean everyone burns their old books as obsolete.

In short I don't feel the loss of any one system, no matter how prevalent, would adveresly affect the hobby.

 

[WayneLigon]

I think I've changed my mind on this entire thing.

I would think that a lot of FLGSs would go out of business, and so would some mid-tier distributors if those still exist and haven't been swallowed up by Diamond. But as far as the hobby itself? Hmm. If that had happened in the pre-Internet days, then sure, I'd say it would be gone.

Gamers want to game. The vast majority of them also want New Stuff. With no new D&D stuff coming out, it seems logical they'd switch to something else. I know there would be tons of people saying 'we'd still keep playing our game' and I'm sure they would for a time. However, I think that short-term quickly-changing game groups are the vast majority and those would change what they were playing. I think that within a couple years, most of the 'we'll never change' people would also change.

Now, two things would happen: either the vast number of D&D players would choose another game, or some company would take advantage of the SRD and create a D&D clone.

What they'd change TO would be problematic. If I had to guess, I'd say Exalted: it's the only fantasy-like game out for the book trade and for a great number of people who don't want to order over the net, that's the only place they'll see new gaming material. (Of course, without D&D, it seems unlikely that most book stores would continue to have a dedicated gaming section at all, too). Or maybe Savage Worlds. Maybe BRP would get it's say in the sun again. People might say 'Oh no, we'd never play anything but D&D' but I don't beleive that for a second. Given the choice of no gaming or playing something else, I think the majority would play something else. And the new people coming into the hobby, such as it was, would know nothing else and they'd eventually outnumber of the old guard.

Someone's D&D clone could also survive; maybe Paizo would use the 3.5 SRD to build a new game. They or GR are just about the only people off the top of my head with the resources to do so. Maybe Steve Jackson Games would do it, too. I think they'd do a fine job on a D&D 4.0. They have an entry into the book trade, so they might could do quite well. And with their initially more limited resources, I doubt we'd get more than 2 new D&D books a year; that should shut up the people complaining about the temerity of a company to publish more books. Sure, there would be people that wouldn't buy 'SJD&D', but really, who cares? They'd be such a small minority they could be kicked to the curb easily enough.

You'd also get a cleaner break. I doubt any company other than WoTC would care much about retaining the sacred cows.

The only thing they'd lose would be the tightly-tied IP elements: drow, mind flayers, some spell names, specific demon names, etc. And those would be quickly forgotten; they'd come up with other new and cool stuff just as good as the stuff that Hasbro would now be sitting on for eternity.