Sold through already

[eyebeams]

"An estimated 20 million people worldwide have played the game, with more than $1bn (£505m) spent on equipment and books."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/entertainment/7278927.stm

You do realize that this is throughout the life of the brand, encompassing an unknown percentage of the brand's properties, don't you? Now I don't think the brand or even the RPG is doing badly, as the last annual report I read from Hasbro (I think it was for 2005 or 2006) specifically mentioned D&D as a lead performer in its division.

I've also noticed a trend to effectively under-print releases. This has been seen in several companies and it makes sense from an economic and PR standpoint. Printing and is not nearly the pain it used to be, but shipping and warehousing in large volume is still annoying. It also generates the positive feeling represented by threads like this. On the other hand, it may represent some recovery from previous slumps, or just that companies are erring on the side of caution.

Once again, I'll mention that D&D's presence in the book trade means that an order doesn't necessarily mean money's coming in. Consumers buying the books means money's coming in. If the demand is being generated by large number of consumer preorders, that's a good thing. I think this edition is probably being ordered online quite a bit. I've heard several anecdotes about game stores being surprised at the low level of anticipation and demand, but of consumers buying via online ordering when in the past, they would have done it through B&M retail.

If the printing is being generated by unrealistic speculation from the book trade, that's a bad thing -- as is any possibility that the online discounters are attacking Hasbro's margins (this is good for you, but it makes D&D look like a waste of time to the manufacturer). We will probably know best in about a year and a bit's time when we see any changes to division management, brand management and the release schedule.

My totally intuitive (i.e. BS-ridden) speculation is that there will be a huge rush of initial sales followed by a sharp slump after early adopters get their copies, but that sales will recover from this. If I were thinking about the brand's best interests, I'd pick around the 90 day mark to redouble marketing efforts, especially for new players. I think the smartest thing they could do would be to make enough DDI functionality free to attract and provide basic play tools and social networking for novice D&D players.

 

[Old Gumphrey]

I think the smartest thing they could do would be to make enough DDI functionality free to attract and provide basic play tools and social networking for novice D&D players.

Guess what they're probably not going to do?

 

[Nifft]

Guess what they're probably not going to do?

They're going to charge for basic social networking, and give away the core books for free before release, aren't they?

"Just guessing", -- N

 

[charlesatan]

In a GTS Seminar Podcast (see http://feeds.feedburner.com/gamaRetail, probably Unconventional Wisdom), Dancey said that the initial 3.0 print run was in the 200,000~300,000K numbers (can't remember the specifics now).

Of course I'd like to add that these initial numbers are most likely the numbers for books that have been sold to retailers/distributors. Whether retailers disposes all of them remains to be seen (although most likely they will).

 

[mcrow]

Given Amazon is selling 1000 a day right now, and was consistently for two months (lower than 1000/day, but still in the 200+ level), that number sounds low.

[Edit] It just rose to #2. Which puts it around 2000 copies a day on Amazon.

I've seen someone here say that amzon rank X = 1000 sales per day but trust me, you cannot come anywhere close to accurate by using that formula. Amazon ranks are pretty tricky, one day it may take 200 copies to gain a certain rank , another day it might take 2000. Trust me, I've looked long and hard on that.

Engrams supplies Amazon, B&N, and many other stores and I can tell you for a fact that they have not been selling 1000 per day combined.

 

[Henry]

I would double check those memories. 3rd edition sold very very well but it isn't really possible for those numbers to be correct about the initial print run especially in light of the comment about 4th edition. I assume neither Jim nor Ryan came on here and lied.

Remember, when 3rd edition launched Wizards of the Coast really had no idea what would happen. TSR had lost lots of customers at both the consumer and retail-wholesale level. There was a lot of uncertainty about the demand for Dungeons & Dragons before 3rd edition revived a sinking brand. The raw cost of printing 500,000 books all at once (not to mention DMGs and Monster Manuals) would have been very scary in the dark days before 3rd edition was a proven success.

I think it's two statements jammed together - My memory recalls that the second print run happened in December of 2000, but the combined sales of both were ab out 500,000. I remember either Jim or Ryan making a statement about 500,000 copies sold, but I'm thinking it was sometime in 2001 when the statement was made.

 

[DMReckless]

I'm not a fan of 4th Edition. Neither the "crunch" nor "flavor" of the rules support the type of play I enjoy. The sales strategy involved in the game design (ie new core rules every year requiring a certain lack of completion in the first set of core rules) turns me off. I don't like some of the things that the designers have said about 3rd edition, nor the implications about its fans. I vehemently dislike disparaging attitudes displayed on message boards by fans of both editions about their "opposites".

D&D 4th edition seems to be a game that is going to appeal to a wide player base. If they can adopt better modes of marketing for the planned "gain new customers" mass marketing in 2009, more power to them- and, to the hobby in general.

I hope that 4th Edition is a huge success. I hope that the online content improves greatly by Friday. I really hope that the sales results encourages Hasbro to keep the brand and continue to put its considerable resources behind its marketing and developing.

I also hope that the Pathfinder RPG from Paizo Publishing garners the kind of success that Paizo, as a consumer friendly, communicative, and talented company deserves. I plan on supporting them as they have chosen to support a version of D&D that my gaming group and I enjoy much more than 4th edition.

So, here's to you, 4th Edition. May your sales be HUGE, may you attract new customers, and may both old and new customers gain years and years of enjoyment out of playing you. Congratulations on the sell-through of the first run, WOTC.

 

[TerraDave]

It is my understanding that 3.0--overall--outsold both 3.5 and 2E and may have even overtaken the previous 1E record.

It is certainly possible that the initial uptake for 4E has been faster. And #2 on amazon sounds really, really good.

But for longer term comparisons, we will need another 5 years or so.

 

[SSquirrel]

But for longer term comparisons, we will need another 5 years or so.

I've been here since a few months after Eric opened the doors on his site, I'm sure I'll still be here to make the comparisons in about 5 years

 

[Mokona]

It is my understanding that 3.0--overall--outsold both 3.5

True

It is certainly possible that the initial uptake for 4E has been faster.

Unknown. What was the combined first and second print run of 3rd edition compared with the 1st and 2nd print run of 4th edition? What was the timing (i.e. the dates) of the 3rd and 4th edition reprints? We don't know so we can't say if 4th edition is doing better or faster.

Harry Potter print runs are publicized in round numbers. I suggest that Wizards of the Coast start doing the same. No one who has tried to compete with D&D since 3rd edition has sold even close to half the sales of Dungeons & Dragons (this is just a guess based on retailer feedback and distribution networks). So Wizards should have no fear that they're giving competitors useful information except to see Paizo-Green Ronin weep in envy.