Survivor 11/26 SPOILERS!

[John Crichton]

Nah. I think the only realistic chance Burton has to win is to go to the final two with Lil - everyone else will beat him just because they didn't get a second chance, and neither did most of the jury. So the jury will vote for the survivor who made it to the final two without a second chance. Same for Lil; she's pretty much an automatic loss against anyone other than Burton. As for Jon, he'd beat either of the two outcasts, but would be in tough against any of the other three - he's just backstabbed too many people, even when he didn't have to. He might be competitive against Sandra, but I think Christa would beat him. Darrah we still know very little about, her lack of air time is pretty suspicious - often people get more airtime as their elimination gets close.

At this point, my gut feeling is the final three are Darrah, Lil, and Burton. Then either Darrah wins immunity and crushes the remaining outcast in the jury vote, or one of the outcasts wins and the jury has to pick one of two people they'd normally never vote for. If one of Lil or Burton loses before the final three, the other will be playing for second. I really think Sandra and Christa should have told Jon and Burton that the only way they'd ally is if the four voted Lil out - Jon would agree, Burton would know his goose would be cooked, and the results would be interesting to see.

As for Jon's lie, Jeff Probst said in an interview at the start of this season that it'd feature the biggest lie he's ever seen, and that the players wouldn't know about it until it aired. So there might be some interesting reactions in the post-boot interviews over the next few weeks.

Alot of that is based soley on the fact that none of the Outcasts can win against anyone else in the final vote. While not a bad way to look at it, I can't agree. There are 4 members of the Morgans and 5 of the Drakes there. Which could mean that none of the original tribe members from the opposing tribes care about who came back from the other tribe and may not even remember it happening (to the person not of their former tribe).

The people on the jury (if the past is any indication) are respectful of those who played the game the best. That includes lying, manipulating, scheming and all the tricks in the book. That's why no one wanted to face Rob in last year's final vote. He clearly outwitted everyone but couldn't win the final immunity to close the deal. Matt lost because he rode Rob's lead almost the entire time while winning a few immunities and being really nice to everyone. That is why I think Jon and Burton have the best chance this time around. They have been the most active and taken the most risks. None of the ladies even come close as far as we know. The only female who we have seen doing anything proactive has been Sandra and her eavesdropping.

I'm sure things will twist starting next week but that is the way it stands right now. It will be interesting to see how far Jon takes his lies and if Burton can continue to avoid the axe if he doesn't win immunity. I assume he will sweep from here on out unless someone can pull a major upset.

Heck, I may end up routing for Jon in the end after all this. Who knows?

Sure is fun to watch, tho. Especially with so many good shows not giving us new eps until after the New Year.

 

[Taren Seeker]

I can't believe he convinced Sandra to vote off T. Man she is going to regret that one. She has been pretty smart up till now, especially the way she made SURE that Rupurt was going.

But seriously, she could have easily pulled Darrah and T inot and Alliance with her and the blond girl, voted out Burton, then Jon then Lil...then had a 2 vs 2 showdown or 3 vs 1 if she could split Darrah and T. Instead, she's forced a 3 on 3 with 2 allies that are looking pretty shaky.

I really disliked Jon until this ep mostly because he was all talk on how sneaky and smart he was but he hadn't actually done anything. That changed last night. Nice moves.

 

[Silver Moon]

I'm still sticking with my original bet as to who will win - Christa. She wasn't even a serious contender last night for being voted off and that was AFTER everyone except Sandra through she had dumped the fish. And anyone who thinks she isn't a serious physical contender for immunities vs. Burton must have forgotten the weight lifting challenge.

Although Burton now has an excellent shot at winning if Jon doesn't betray him. His alliance with Lil may save his butt. I agree that Sandra screwed up big time in not getting rid of Burton when she had an opportunity to. She might now ally with Darrah in addition to Christa, but they are now down to six so can't swing a majority.

Darrah's strategy of being quiet and out of the way and not making herself a target might get her into the final four, but no further.

I absolutely hate Jon! That's also how I spell my name, and this scumbucket is a disgrace to our name.

 

[SnowDog]

I must say, love him or hate him, he's brought some real interest into the game.

Up until last night, he was an annoyance I wanted gone. But last night left me grinning ear to ear. With Rupert gone, it's cool to see someone else doing something interesting. I'm surprised nobody suspected anything (though maybe Sandra did; hard to say).

And will someone get Lill off the show? If anybody is less interesting to watch than Darrah, it's her. Yeesh.

 

[John Crichton]

I was just watching some football on CBS and caught a commercial for this week's Survivor. They showed some of the tribe with muskets (presumably for a challenge) and the tagline was "Is Jonny Fairplay finally going down?" I guess he is the star for the moment. They usually don't highlight just one castaway in the promos with this many people left in the tribe. Interesting.

 

[stevelabny]

is this why i miss all the survivor commercials? because every other show on cbs sucks and i root for an nfc team thats almost always on fox?

im not surprised. with fan-favorite rupert gone, rooting AGAINST johnny fairplay is the thing to do. because I'm a glutton for punishment, i like to go in the official cbs survivor chat room on survivor nights and this wednesday night people were KILLING jon like if had committed the worst sin imaginable. why people apply their morality to a GAME, i have no idea, but it apparently is a favorite pasttime for the "mainstream" audience.

 

[John Crichton]

is this why i miss all the survivor commercials? because every other show on cbs sucks and i root for an nfc team thats almost always on fox?

I typically watch the NY Giants on Fox, however DirecTV decided to carry the Pats game today so I watched that while listening to my team get beat down on the radio. I turned it off and watched a much more entertaining game. The Survivor promo was about 5 seconds and had to rewind the TiVo to even catch it...

Actually, the only reason I am hooked on survivor is indirectly because of football. Ya see, after watching my G-men get their butt whooped in the Super Bowl a few years back (when it was on CBS) I was too lazy to get up and change the channel after the game. That was the year they premeired Survivor 2 right after the Super Bowl. I never stood a chance. I've seen just about every ep since. It's kinda sad, really...

 

[ASH]

Even Jeff Probst hates Jon. He has actually said on the radio show Bob and Tom in the morning, that he dislikes good ole Jonny Fair Play more than any other player ever.

I dont care how well that guy plays the game. I hate him, even the concpt that he could win a million dollars irks me. He has such an arrogant attitude that he makes me mad. Their are two parts of survivor, Pysical and mental. He not all that good at the pysical, and i really do not think that he is all that great at the mental. He has gotten lucky up until last week. Last week was pure manipulation, and that I will give him was done well. But the fact that he would stoop so low; I mean there is a way to manipulate and to lie with in the game with out bringing real life emotions in to it. He crossed a line as far as I am concerned between manipulation and taking advantage of the goodness of human kind.
I would rather have Lillian win(and I really dont want her boring ass to win), at least it would be going to a good person. Some things you dont lie about. Thats one of them. He is pure evil. I hate him. I belive the majority hates him and I hope he never wins anything, and gets nothing but ridiculed for what he did on the show. Not to mention I hope his grandma smacks him a good one when he gets back.
That said, I dont know who will win. Its a toss up. I hope its Krista or Sandra, but I dont think it will end up that way.
And if Jon wins I will alter the season in my memory to substitute Rupert as winning. He desrves it so much more anyway.

Now, Let the disagreement begin.....

 

[Ghostwind]

As much as I intensely dislike Jon (I don't really play fair) Fairplay, the stunt he pulled with the lie was an act of brilliance. I didn't think he was capable of that kind of planning. Up to that point, everything he had done was simple manipulation and backstabbing of other tribe members to avoid the radar being focused on him. He's done as good a job as anyone at playing off being a "non-threat" to others on a physical scale.

I've maintained from day one that he should have been one of the first to go, but obviously that isn't how it has played out. My wife has an even lower opinion of him because she says he shows all the signs of a major substance abuser (drugs) and the fact that he keeps flashing the handsigns for the "Vicelords" (a criminal gang) during the council votes. She thinks slugs are higher on the totem pole than he is...

As much as I had wished to see a Rupert/Burton final, I won't be surprised to see Christa and Derrah sitting there at the end. It all depends on how the immunity falls and how much more friction occurs between Sandra and the rest of the tribe.

 

[Quasqueton]

Am I the only one who is highly disappointed with the producers of the show because they broke the rules by bringing back people who had been voted off?

The game has very few real rules, and the core/base rule is that once voted off, you have lost. And not only did they bring back two outcasts, they gave them immunity from being voted off again immediately! Not fair.

What's the next "interesting twist"? Instead of voting from the final two, maybe the jury can vote for *any* player as the winner? Maybe after a challenge, the winner doesn't get immunity, but rather is automatically kicked out?

They shouldn't change the core rule of the game like that. It's just not right. I'll finish out watching this season just to see how it ends, but they've lost me as a future game watcher. I don't like games where the base rules change in the middle of the competition.

Quasqueton

P.S. If Burton or Lil win the game, will there be an asterick and footnote next to their names in the Survivor record book?