Theories/Opinions on WotC's Plan

[Tetsubo]

From what I've seen so far their plan appears to be scaring me away as a customer... I think I will be skipping 4E... I like 3.5 so far and there is TONS of support material available for free online. I will continue to purchase new 3.5 books that interest me... but 4E? Not so much...

 

[Khairn]

I agree with Tetsubo.

Particularly if other OGL/D20 publishers continue to support the market there will be no incentive for me to look towards 4E with anything other than morbid curiosity. I also agree that WotC's plan so far is doing more to scare me away than entice me to jump on their bandwagon.

 

[DonTadow]

It just doesn't seem like WOTC has enough people on board for a 4th edition. With 3rd, we all knew the problems of second and couldn't wait for a 3rd edition. This time, there are a lot of people content with 3rd edition. Part of that is the OGL that allows us so much more content.

4th edition can only succeed if wotc can convince d and d players that official is the only real way to play dungeons and dragons and that 3rd party products not licensed by them are broken. Thats difficult when the best rpg designers seem to be outside of wotc.

 

[Odhanan]

If 4E is not OGL I know how I would feel: I would feel like it's yet another blow from WotC. I may be a forgiving customer, but I'm not a masochistic moron. I have my limits.

I add in my head all that's going on, plus elements like this, and I'm really not sure I want to be part of 'that' 4E at all. I feel more and more like I'm no longer the target customer of the "professionals" anymore (somehow, I feel like they still think I'm 12 years old or something. Hey guys? Most gamers I know are 30 years old. Time to talk to them like they are... and with brains, too). If that's what it means, so be it: I'm a grognard of ODD and ADD1 already, I'll be a grognard of 3.X as well.

I just don't want any of that "4E" as people talk about it.

 

[WayneLigon]

OGL is here to stay. Have you seen the volume of stuff produced by "tinkerers" on the WotC boards? Tinkerers are a market. And if you cater to them, they grow your product's value for free. (Note happy penguin to the left.) I'm not sure if they think Product Identity restrictions on non-OGL stuff in the core books is working or not -- are DDM Beholders less valuable if the monster can't appear in 3rd party modules? -- but they better realize that the OGL and timely release of the SRD saved D&D, and continues to add value.

I don't think the OGL is here to stay (and despite even the authors claims to the contrary I have a hard time beleiveing that some team of lawyers could not overturn it). Again, despite claims to the contrary, I think the vast majority will migrate to 4E. If 4E is significantly different mechanics-wize from 3.5 - and I think it will be - then 3.5 OGL content becomes virtually worthless to them.

I'm thinking that this time around they'll want all those eggs to stay in one basket again. They could be pulling licenses back in only in order to release new ones that differ in some significant manner but that seems unlikely as the companies they've done this to have apparently had sufficient lead time to create other avenues of staying afloat.

 

[Vrecknidj]

IMHO:

OGL is here to stay. Have you seen the volume of stuff produced by "tinkerers" on the WotC boards? Tinkerers are a market. And if you cater to them, they grow your product's value for free. (Note happy penguin to the left.) I'm not sure if they think Product Identity restrictions on non-OGL stuff in the core books is working or not -- are DDM Beholders less valuable if the monster can't appear in 3rd party modules? -- but they better realize that the OGL and timely release of the SRD saved D&D, and continues to add value.

I agree, and I hope that this is basically correct.

4e will be tested with other games first. Star Wars is the first example. I predict a new d20 Modern before 4e.

Considering how much smaller the other games are, compared to D&D, it would be very wise for them to test things out in the smaller markets first, get a firm grip on 4e for D&D, and then work out the bugs. I can't imagine anyone at WotC is really hoping for a 4.0 followed quickly by 4.5 model. Ugh.

Dave

 

[Henry]

...despite even the authors claims to the contrary I have a hard time believing that some team of lawyers could not overturn it...

While it's possible that it could be overturned, and I'm no lawyer, I've read the thing enough to know that it's not probable, and there's been so much language for perpetuity put into it that I would put complete trust in it (if I ever had anything I wanted to publish). Ryan and his lawyers really did their homework when they put that thing together. Near as I can figure it, Someone would have to prove that Ryan and crew never had the authority to establish that license in the first place, in order to overturn it, and that would mean that Hasbro/WotC or whoever don't have legal ownership over the property even now...

The big question isn't so much whether it could be overturned as its relevance to the gaming market at large when a 4th edition of D&D is released. If a 4E was so demonstrably better that everyone just HAD to switch to it, then the point is moot; but if WotC didn't do their PR job successfully enough, then the switch would only be half-hearted by the fanbase, leading to a gradual decline a la 2nd edition days.

 

[buzz]

What I read into this - the canceling of licensing by Paizo and CMP, is a change of direction for WotC - they want more control over things... and probably are convinced that they can make this profitable, while maintaining control.

I think it comes down to this, but I don't think it's anything as Machiavellian as "wanting control" as it is simply identifying a number of profitable licenses that are benefiting the licensor more than they are WotC. There's been a great deal of market shrinkage since the d20 boom, and I can see that it simply makes good business sense to reign in various revenue-generating IP.

However, I really don't see any connection between these actions and either 4e or the OGL. Continuing to maintain the SRD is simply a no-brainer, IMO. It's a minimal investment on WotC's part that gains them the continued fostering of a network of players and publishers who all support their core products in one way or another. Release a closed 4e and all you're doing is, e.g., encouraging FFG to port the next edition of Midnight to some other RPG... instead of making it yet another product that helps sell the 4e core books.

The SRD is low-hanging fruit. I simply don't think WotC is that stupid. Rather, I think people are trying to paint the grimmest picture possible in light of recent announcements.

As for not providing more detail about the DI, I agree with various pundits (including Dancey, iirc) who have said that not doing so has allowed the spotlight to remain on Paizo for the time being. Had the DI been ready to go the day of the announcement, how many more subscribers would have asked for a cash refund instead of Paizo store credit or a Pathfinder sub?

It could simply be coincidence, but WotC's silence has been in Paizo's favor regardless.

 

[DonTadow]

While it's possible that it could be overturned, and I'm no lawyer, I've read the thing enough to know that it's not probable, and there's been so much language for perpetuity put into it that I would put complete trust in it (if I ever had anything I wanted to publish). Ryan and his lawyers really did their homework when they put that thing together. Near as I can figure it, Someone would have to prove that Ryan and crew never had the authority to establish that license in the first place, in order to overturn it, and that would mean that Hasbro/WotC or whoever don't have legal ownership over the property even now...

The big question isn't so much whether it could be overturned as its relevance to the gaming market at large when a 4th edition of D&D is released. If a 4E was so demonstrably better that everyone just HAD to switch to it, then the point is moot; but if WotC didn't do their PR job successfully enough, then the switch would only be half-hearted by the fanbase, leading to a gradual decline a la 2nd edition days.

It just seems wotc would have to do a HECK of a PR job now. They've angered the core of their community with these brash decisions with no explanation on their part. What can 4e develop that hasn't already been thought of.

 

[Vlad Le Démon]

[...continuing from my post in the Now Dragonlance as Well topic]
1. Hasbro is going to free WotC.
2. WotC and all is brands will move on Second Life. No more MtG or D&D in the real life...but only in second life...The Digital Initiative is the code name for this operation.