Ukraine invasion

[Zardnaar]

Or respond with nukes...

Unlikely. Any strike in Moscow espicially on May 9th though would be more likely to trigger formal war DoW.

Bad idea either way though for very little gain.

 

[Horwath]

Or respond with nukes...

true.

unless you can nuke Red square for the parade don't bother with pinprick attacks.

 

[Eltab]

Just out of curiosity, does Ukraine have anything with very long range and precision. Would be an eye-opener for the Russians If their planned celebrations parade in Moscow was hit in such a way that only the military vehicles were destroyed.

Might not be doable, and probably a bad idea though.

Zap Putin personally, and the war effort goes on Pause (or autopilot) while a bunch of would-be successors sort out "Who's in charge here?!"

Somebody with no ambition to necromancy the Soviet Union might decide to blame it all on Putin, back off, and ask the diplomats to provide a fig leaf to get out of the mess.

 

[Davies]

Somebody with no ambition to necromancy the Soviet Union might decide to blame it all on Putin, back off, and ask the diplomats to provide a fig leaf to get out of the mess.

That's a rather large assumption on which to base an entire operation -- that Putin's eventual successor will be someone without that ambition.

"[T]he dictator is merely the tip of the whole festering boil of social pus from which dictators emerge".

 

[Rabulias]

That's a rather large assumption on which to base an entire operation -- that Putin's eventual successor will be someone without that ambition.

The "palace coup" hope (an unlikely but not impossible scenario) holds that someone inside Russia (and likely from one of those potential successors) realizes that what Putin is doing is disastrous to Russia's future and Russian interests. It would be illogical that they would continue Putin's plans, at least in the near term, even if they hold the same beliefs about the Soviet Union. If Putin were removed by external instead of internal elements, his successor would at least realize that immediate continuation of Putin's plans would shift the target to themselves.

"[T]he dictator is merely the tip of the whole festering boil of social pus from which dictators emerge".

I would take issue with this, painting the whole of Russian society as potential dictators.

 

[Zardnaar]

The "palace coup" hope (an unlikely but not impossible scenario) holds that someone inside Russia (and likely from one of those potential successors) realizes that what Putin is doing is disastrous to Russia's future and Russian interests. It would be illogical that they would continue Putin's plans, at least in the near term, even if they hold the same beliefs about the Soviet Union. If Putin were removed by external instead of internal elements, his successor would at least realize that immediate continuation of Putin's plans would shift the target to themselves.

I would take issue with this, painting the whole of Russian society as potential dictators.

All the people in charge are essentially complicit. Pretty much United Russia goes down to the mayor level.

Any civil institution that can run a Democracy even a flawed one has been corrupted or shut down.

They've never had a functioning democracy just 500 years of varying levels of autocracy.

USSR collapsed in 1991 by 1993 the "democratically elected" Yeltsin was using tanks to fire on the white house.

The average Russian associates democracy with the 90's. At best it was flawed and lasted 13 odd years.

There's no liberal opposition as such even if you found one all the institutions are run by United Russia and corruption is baked in for the last 50 odd years at least.

Putin's legal successor is essentially a puppet with no base of power or support in the siloviki.

 

[Davies]

I would take issue with this, painting the whole of Russian society as potential dictators.

I apologize, that was not what I intended.

One problem I see if he is removed by external forces; it might make the Russians more determined to continue the war, and escalate it.

This is more what I was trying to say.

 

[Ulfgeir]

The "palace coup" hope (an unlikely but not impossible scenario) holds that someone inside Russia (and likely from one of those potential successors) realizes that what Putin is doing is disastrous to Russia's future and Russian interests. It would be illogical that they would continue Putin's plans, at least in the near term, even if they hold the same beliefs about the Soviet Union. If Putin were removed by external instead of internal elements, his successor would at least realize that immediate continuation of Putin's plans would shift the target to themselves.

I would take issue with this, painting the whole of Russian society as potential dictators.

One problem I see if he is removed by external forces; it might make the Russians more determined to continue the war, and escalate it. As then you would for sure have an external enemy. My reading is that Ukraine doing it might be ok, given there already is a conflict, but it very much depends on how it is spun. Provable NATO forces doing it, hell no.

It really is a horrible situation.

 

[Ryujin]

I would take issue with this, painting the whole of Russian society as potential dictators.

It's not all Russians. It's the "but some animals are more equal than others" Russians.

 

[Eltab]

That's a rather large assumption on which to base an entire operation -- that Putin's eventual successor will be someone without that ambition.

"[T]he dictator is merely the tip of the whole festering boil of social pus from which dictators emerge".

I observe that Operation Valkyrie (upon which the movie of the same name is based) was a 1944 effort by some German Army officers to get rid of Adolph Hitler personally and take over the Government, under the belief that with him gone they could negotiate an end to the World War.

Of course it did not work as planned but a similar theory can still seem to apply. An absolute leader who has built a cult of personality around himself can create the impression that without his direction, the machine of government will grind to a halt.