D&D 4E What was Paizo thinking? 3.75 the 4E clone?

[Keoki]

You make it sound like nobody every buys anything but DnD books, yet there is a lot of companies and a lot of games out there that do just fine. ICE makers of Rolemaster and Harp, Steve Jackson maker of GURPS, White Wolf maker of WoD stuff and exalted, Mongoose which basicily left d20 behind and do their own stuff, Penicale makers of Savage Worlds, ect. Lots of games and companies exist and make a profit just fine.

Consider old World of Darkness is still played and it has been out of print for around 6 years now and no easy way to get the main books. I think it would be doing better if you could still get the core books for it.

Now Paizo may or may not sell their new game well and may or may not stay in business. But if they do or don't has nothing to do with WotC or 4e and everything to do with if they make a good quality product. Because if they make the later word of mouth with get them new customers and if it sucks they will sink. Only their own abilities will ultimently matter.

It seems you're comparing apples and oranges. It's not as if Pathfinder were an entirely different game. It is, essentially, a soon-to-be-outdated edition of D&D, no matter what its name, and I'm quite certain anyone playing it will know this. In releasing 4E, WotC is declaring it to be an improvement over 3.5. Those that have some attachment to 3.5 and are unwilling to convert have the option of Pathfinder. New players, however, who have never tried and have no attachment to either system, have no reason to choose the "blast from the past." Imagine you look into Pathfinder, which at present is essentially Old D&D, and you hear it's pretty good. Before you bought Old D&D you'd almost certainly consider New D&D, 4E, which lots of folks say is even better. With no nostalgia for the Good Old Days, which would you buy? 1E and 2E may still be played, but I doubt they're getting many new players these days, even though the rulebooks are still widely available.

Only if 4E completely tanks, I think, will Pathfinder be able to find any notable new audience. Or if it survives long enough to evolve and become unrecognizable as D&D, truly becoming a separate game with its own identity, shaking off the stigma of being Old D&D.

 

[Dragonblade]

What we don't need is a computerised rpg bastard child made entirely for greed.

Any point you were trying to make is completely invalidated by this statement.

 

[nutluck]

But what gives me pause is the locking of their flagship property to the Pathfinder RPG, and the fact they're only going to have a vague idea of how well it's going to sell until 14 months after 4e launches. That's not forever, but it's still a fairly long time, and it makes you wonder what made them so disgusted with 4e that they couldn't wait 3 months to see its reception in the marketplace.

But who really knows? They've clearly looked at the numbers and made their best guess, and that's much more likely to be better than my best guess. And they could always announce the 4e version of the Pathfinder Campaign Setting in July after seeing the rules, or 4e could tank horribly, or maybe there's enough people who appreciate the quality of Paizo products that they can keep publishing adventures in 3.5 and still serve 80% of the 4e market.

Well at least one thing was no GSL or 4e rules yet. They hit the deadline they have been talking about for months. When they had to have that to make the products for gencon. Keep in mind their big seller in Pathfinder something that once started last for 6 months, they won't change system midway threw a run. So if they are going to have to make the next one 3.5 that means the soonest they could make a 4e one is the following one. Which if I recall should be in Feb or March of next year.

Also they have not locked Pathfinder to the new RPG. I am sure if between now and then they feel 4e is the right choice they will switch. This gives them plenty of time to get all the facts, play with the system and see how the market goes. Paizo is not stupid if they see a drop in sales and a steady decline of those taking a interest in there Pathfinder RPG they will switch to 4e.

Right now they are simple making the best of a bad situation that WotC put them in mind you and giving themselves as many options as they can to be successful.

 

[Fobok]

Is it not possible that we already have all the races, classes, game worlds that we could ever need to make adventures for the next 10+ years ? The answer is yes we do.

See, this kind of proves the point of what was being discussed. It's likely that the people staying with 3.5 already have everything they need. Thus, how will Paizo succeed in trying to sell more to that market?

I hope they do succeed. But it's highly risky, a lot riskier than selling 4e products would be.

 

[Jack99]

Sure but why?

Is it not possible that we already have all the races, classes, game worlds that we could ever need to make adventures for the next 10+ years ? The answer is yes we do. What we don't need is a computerised rpg bastard child made entirely for greed.

Just had to quote this

 

[BryonD]

Maybe. If sales of 3.5 are declining across the industry, though, it could be like buggy whips in 1910. It's not like buggy whip manufacturers went out of business all at the same time; the ones making the cheap, crappy buggy whips folded first, then the ones making decent, serviceable buggy whips, then the ones making the best, most well crafted buggy whips.

Obviously quality will outlast crap. But I don't see the buggywhip analogy as valid because there is no less desire for gaming than ever before.

The issue has nothing to do with the product become outdated and everything to do with people having everything they need. People stopped buying buggy whips because they didn't have buggys and therefore had no need for buggy whips. They didn't stop buying buggywhips because they had a bookshelf covered with hundreds of buggywhips in every shape and color to keep them entertained for the rest of their life.

3X gamers do have enough product to keep them going for the rest of their life. So I'd expect the majority of sales these days are in two camps: New Adventures, which never get old; and people who collect their regular gaming fix. New gamers and products with a cool new idea also fit in, the same baseline motive will also exist at some level. But the market has evolved by necessity.

When 4e starts out people who want to play the new game will "need" stuff in a way that hasn't been true for 3E for a very long time. The 4e sales out of the gate will be way ahead of anything 3e has seen in a while. (though very possibly not up to 3E's release)

But, the 3E loyal purchasers are quite likely to keep chugging along. I doubt there will ever be a time again when 3e system sales match 4e sales (but you never know.... ) But I'll not be at all surprised if 3E sales do a better job of providing the sustained sales flow that 3e publishers (or even just publisher) need than 4e is does of living up to its hopes over the course of several years.

4E's bar is so much higher than Pathfinders that it isn't even a valid comparison. So it is completely possible for Pathfinder to be a smash success and 4e to disappoint, regardless of how many times more 4E PHs sell than Pathfinder books.

 

[nutluck]

It seems you're comparing apples and oranges. It's not as if Pathfinder were an entirely different game. It is, essentially, a soon-to-be-outdated edition of D&D, no matter what its name, and I'm quite certain anyone playing it will know this. In releasing 4E, WotC is declaring it to be an improvement over 3.5. Those that have some attachment to 3.5 and are unwilling to convert have the option of Pathfinder. New players, however, who have never tried and have no attachment to either system, have no reason to choose the "blast from the past." Imagine you look into Pathfinder, which at present is essentially Old D&D, and you hear it's pretty good. Before you bought Old D&D you'd almost certainly consider New D&D, 4E, which lots of folks say is even better. With no nostalgia for the Good Old Days, which would you buy? 1E and 2E may still be played, but I doubt they're getting many new players these days, even though the rulebooks are still widely available.

yes cause Conan, True20, hackmaster and others that are based on the same rules as DnD are doing so horrible. All the companies making them are still in business and selling more products for them. Paizo doesn't have to outsell WotC it doesn't even have to have huge sales only enough to make a profit. If only 1 in 20 3e players goes with them instead of 4e which i think is a reasonable number and wouldn't be remotely surprising to see, then Paizo will make a good profit.

 

[Mustrum_Ridcully]

I think some people are making assumptions that I would be more careful with.

1) Paizo is the only one that have their marketing figures. They had an active magazine, and they have an active board. I suspect they even have more sources for information on their customers. Anyway, they have the figures. They are the best suited to make decisions on what to do. If they decide that going with 3.5/3.75/Pathfinder RPG the way they do it, I will assume that they know what they are doing. I will not assume that they are stupid and WotC is the only one in the business knowing what is right or wrong to do.

2) Paizo is not WotC. The size and the market they serve is considerably different. And that will not change much. What is required or will work for WotC might not be applicable to Paizo - and vice versa.

3) WotC wants to make money. And so does Paizo. Neither of them is in there just for the good of their heart. But behind both businesses, there are people dedicated to the hobby. Never believe anything else. And that means that if the designers of WotC or Paizo are asked by the faceless, in-only-for-the-money-making entities of their corporation, they will come up with their best for the game. And NOTHING less. Saying that what is done "only for the money" discounts this possiblity, and that is plain wrong and insulting.
People must learn to differentiate between the faceless business identity of a corporation and the people that actually make it up. You can still not like what the people come up with, but that's not for their lack of trying or their will to do their best.

 

[Scrollreader]

yes cause Conan, True20, hackmaster and others that are based on the same rules as DnD are doing so horrible. All the companies making them are still in business and selling more products for them.

But out of the people who play those systems, I would bet the large majority (except for M&M, which has really become it's own thing) came from a d20 system like D&D or D20 modern. I mean, I love SAGA. I really do. It's my favorite star wars system wince d6, and in some ways, I like it much better than d6. But when I'm selling the game, or looking for more players ... they come from D&D. I think I have had one person, in the half a dozen SAGA games I have run/am currently running who was brand new to PnP RPGs, and she came in with her boyfriend. With the exception again, of M&M, which really has evolved into it's own thing, not really tied to D&D, I think the same is true of the other OGL d20 products out there. Given a choice for which system someone new is likely to start with, between pathfinder, conan, true 20, etc and 4e, I think 4e is going to be miles and miles above the others. D&D has a huge brand name, a vast playerbase, and an equally large majority of shelf space. Now, is pathfinder going to be sucessful? I have no idea. That sucess might not need any new players at all, and ight be able to be profitable solely on pople who stickw ith Paizo, or who want the changes that they are making. But the further it drifts from core 3.5, the harder it will be for them to be profitable. I think the same is true for systems like conan, etc. I'd be very surprised if conan continues to be sucessful without changing to follow the D&D paradigm, three or four years from now.

 

[tricky_bob]

See, this kind of proves the point of what was being discussed. It's likely that the people staying with 3.5 already have everything they need. Thus, how will Paizo succeed in trying to sell more to that market?

I hope they do succeed. But it's highly risky, a lot riskier than selling 4e products would be.

You're right, but what it means is that, on the whole, we're happy with what we have. We don't want WotC 's excuse to bleed us dry because we want to continue to play D&D.