I know this whole thread is predicated on the assumption that WotC will be publishing 4e in the next 2 years and that the OGL will be discarded for this version. But I have a different take on this.
1) With the destruction of Dragon and Dungeon Magazines (DDM) WotC has removed a potent sales tool to build customer anticipation/demand for a new edition.
It is going to take awhile to build customer use and loyalty to the new Digital Initiative (DI) products which can then be leveraged into bringing new and old customers to the table.
As I see it, WotC is going to have to wed the value added services of the DI with D&D 3.5 first. Then when they launch “4e” they have a built in audience to build buzz for the new product and it can be built to make maximum use of DI products.
That way, if they release 4e without an OGL, there is not just a mechanical difference between 4e and 3e, there is also a closed system of electronic support for the new mechanics that provides value that no other company can reproduce let alone compete with.
2) While the OGL is eternal, places to advertise your gaming wares is getting rarer and rarer. With the demise of DDM it will be difficult to get your product out to the general gaming public. I would be interested to see if the DI has advertising. It has been my impression that print advertising has more pull that online but then I am not a marketing person. In all, the loss of DDM advertising is a major problem for the long term survivability of mid-tier 3rd party companies.
The loss of DDM is further compounded by the elimination of non-WotC gaming at D&D XP (formerly Winter Fantasy). WotC is going to build this convention as the big D&D showcase where they have complete control.
NOTE: I don’t expect to hear about 4e at GenCon btw, I expect it will be at D&D XP.
It is very expensive to go to GenCon and Origins as a vendor and only those with pockets deep enough to support a trip there (or the crazy belief that one’s product will sell it self and pay for the trip) are going to make it to these conventions.
3) Of course, my points are predicated on the idea that WotC is going to take a measured approach to bringing folks to a new version of the game.
It is quite possible that WotC will ignore the lessons of 3e mania and just release it expecting everyone will understand that just because its WotC D&D that it will be good.
My two coppers,
Bryan Blumklotz
AKA Saracenus