CapnZapp
Legend
Deadly doesn't mean "a pc is likely to die".
In fact, 5e is definitely running in carebear mode. Once the PCs have left the very lowest levels, it's exceedingly hard to kill them or even challenge them. Assuming you don't ditch the DMG encounter guidelines, which I am overwhelmed with joy to see that the CoS team seems to have done!
And so, I think it helps to think of differences between challenge rating (CR) and average party level (APL) in relative rather than absolute terms.
The reason a CR 5 encounter is so deadly at first or second level isn't because the CR is 3 steps higher than the APL. It is because the CR is 100% higher than the APL!
Also, the damage output of monsters generally slows down compared to the hit point total of heroes. Barring a few effects like Fireball and Meteor Swarm that yield more damage than their level suggests, once the party have reached level 5 or so, the ability of monsters to take them from healthy to dead without the party having time to react is lessened considerably.
What I mean is: at APL 2 a CR 6 encounter is indeed probably lethal, not only because the CR is +4, not even because the CR is triple the APL, but because the party is so fragile at low level.
At APL 6 the party stands a considerably higher chance of surviving a CR 18 encounter. Not winning it, and not without casualties. But in the sense of "surviving" meaning "avoiding a Total Party Kill".
Zapp
PS. So noone misinterprets this post - I love the way Curse of Strahd is filled, not with merely "DMG deadly" fights (which are fights that the party can and will win, which only encourages minmaxing) but with really lethal fights! If the party cannot use combat to overcome challenges, they are forced to resort to roleplaying!
In fact, 5e is definitely running in carebear mode. Once the PCs have left the very lowest levels, it's exceedingly hard to kill them or even challenge them. Assuming you don't ditch the DMG encounter guidelines, which I am overwhelmed with joy to see that the CoS team seems to have done!
And so, I think it helps to think of differences between challenge rating (CR) and average party level (APL) in relative rather than absolute terms.
The reason a CR 5 encounter is so deadly at first or second level isn't because the CR is 3 steps higher than the APL. It is because the CR is 100% higher than the APL!
Also, the damage output of monsters generally slows down compared to the hit point total of heroes. Barring a few effects like Fireball and Meteor Swarm that yield more damage than their level suggests, once the party have reached level 5 or so, the ability of monsters to take them from healthy to dead without the party having time to react is lessened considerably.
What I mean is: at APL 2 a CR 6 encounter is indeed probably lethal, not only because the CR is +4, not even because the CR is triple the APL, but because the party is so fragile at low level.
At APL 6 the party stands a considerably higher chance of surviving a CR 18 encounter. Not winning it, and not without casualties. But in the sense of "surviving" meaning "avoiding a Total Party Kill".
Zapp
PS. So noone misinterprets this post - I love the way Curse of Strahd is filled, not with merely "DMG deadly" fights (which are fights that the party can and will win, which only encourages minmaxing) but with really lethal fights! If the party cannot use combat to overcome challenges, they are forced to resort to roleplaying!