Maybe this is nostalgia, but I've been thinking about this lately, and I really have begun to believe that the modern D&D variants, Pathfinder and 4E, just won't attract the new players that people want them to attract. Here's why:
The default character rules are just too complicated.
Bosh. Roll some dice, pick a race/class, get help picking a feat and some spells. Done. Easier than registering for community college, and the prerequisite rules are much easier to understand.
First look at the character sheets. They are likely 2 pages, at least (and in 4E case, sometimes a lot longer). There can be some very esoteric abbreviations or words placed on the page, that a new player must walked through. It takes a long time to explain each power, stat, etc etc etc.
"This is a magic missile. It does damage to monsters."
"This is Power Attack. It allows you to swing harder, but less accurately."
"This is Dodge. It helps you avoid attacks, as the name suggests."
"This is Weapon Focus. It means you are particularly good with cooking. Just kidding. It means you are particularly good with a weapon."
It is unclear, when you sit down to look at a character sheet, what that character is good at.
Far less so than in previous editions. Unless you gathered that low AC was good and high hit points were good, you would have a heck of a time making even basic sense.
Thinking back to my first time playing, what was on my character sheet? There was a name, a race, a class, an alignment, six basic stats, my ac, the number I needed to roll to hit something and some items.
... languages known, % Hear Noise (what?), AC (without shield), five saving throws, "prime requisites," etc...
Now, it's the same, except NPWs are now called Feats and Skills, there are fewer saving throws, situational ACs are spelled out, and the ability score bonuses are unified and can be determined without looking at six or eight charts.
These things are either pretty self explanatory, or take a minimum amount of time to explain them. Class write ups were a page or 2, and seemed to be mostly fluff.
Actually beyond recommending a cleric pick a deity (Red Box), indicating they need not (Cyclopedia), or strongly suggesting they do (AD&D), there is very little fluff in the writeups. Mostly you have weirdly long descriptions of what happens when you turn name level, or if you violate your class restrictions, and so forth.
There were plenty of additional rules, that could be added to make the game much more complex, but at it's basic, it was a pretty simple process to create, and understand a character sheet.
Sure, back then, there was a lot more pressure put on the DM to adjudicate the rules than in Modern Variants, but at the same time, that's fine, because it means only one person at the table has to be a master of the rules.
So, I know people think the new 4E Red Box and the Intro Box Paizo has planned will bring in new players, but I really don't see them doing that. Instead, you must have a Basic version of your game that is a complete game, not just the first couple of levels.
What's the huge difference between a 2-level game and a 3-level game? The original Red Box was the most successful intro set in the history of the universe.
There needs to be a way to build a character for Red Box and Pathfinder where the character is suitably interesting but doesn't have much more to it than what Old School D&D did, while still keeping with the flavor of the rules of that system.
I know essentials was that attempt, but honestly, I don't know if it's simple enough. If I plop down a character sheet in front of a new player, would they have a pretty good understanding of what their character can do in 5 minutes?
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I can't even imagine what such a game would look like. Even if you were using something like Hero Quest or Maelstrom or Risus, and it said something like, "Good with shotguns," it would be hard to get a really clear picture of your capabilities without understanding the system.
Maybe I'm wrong about what a new player needs, I haven't been a new player in years, and I'm sure 99% of the people on this board are in the same boat, we are likely pretty experienced with RPGs. But I feel like a lot of people started play with a more basic version of D&D, and added things in to it. How do you do that right now with 4E and Pathfinder? They are very complex games to begin with.
They need structure, clear language, attractive art, and a resolution system that is not too taxing. Pathfinder has it, D&D 4e is getting there, most "rules-lite" games lack any of that.
