D&D 3E/3.5 Will 4e last longer than 3e?

[SteveC]

I think you'll get as long if not longer before you hear something actually called 5E, but you're certain to get a revised core PHB in the next three years that incorporates the best of the splat material we see. Some will call that a new edition, but I don't see it that way.

The next major revision of the underlying assumptions behind the game (like we have now)...I'd put it out between six and eight years.

--Steve

 

[GVDammerung]

Heck no. 4e will be the shortest edition ever.

First, longer cycles leave money on the table as it is a general truism that supplements sell increasingly less well as a given edition ages.

Second, 4e will leave more people playing 3x than 3x left people playing 2e and 4e will thus sell less well than 3x necessitating a quicker turn around to a 5e that can recapture the sales of 3x.

Third, 4e is being built to be superceded by a new edition in a way no prior edition was designed. 4e is churn and burn. The annual PH/MM/DMG will break in the audience to accept a new core virtually every year. Thus, just call any given years new PH/MM/DMG a 5E, and give it a little more rules tweak to support the designation, and ta-da -new edition with attendent ballyhoo and, hopefully, sales.

5e is announced in 2012 earliest to 2014 latest - 4 to 6 years - and I'm thinking on the low end. As so many like to say, Wotc is a business and is in the business of making money. Well, get ready to pay Mr and Ms Customer.

 

[Cyronax]

Because I'm practical. And because I'm a Communist.

Oh crap. I must report you to the moderators before its to late and I'm converted!

C.I.D.

 

[DaveMage]

I remember Scott saying that there will be no 4.5E, but I don't recall seeing a quote that he expects 8-10 years to elapse between editions. Do you have a link?

http://www.enworld.org/showthread.php?t=204173&page=2&pp=30

Post #47

 

[cthulhu_duck]

Second, 4e will leave more people playing 3x than 3x left people playing 2e and 4e will thus sell less well than 3x necessitating a quicker turn around to a 5e that can recapture the sales of 3x.

That's not a given unless the market can't be grown - if Wizards can grow the D&D market with 4E (bringing in more new gamers than those who stay with 3E), then your statement wouldn't prove true.

 

[GVDammerung]

That's not a given unless the market can't be grown - if Wizards can grow the D&D market with 4E (bringing in more new gamers than those who stay with 3E), then your statement wouldn't prove true.

Agreed. That is the gamble Wotc is making. I'm betting Wotc's gamble that 4e will attract sufficiently more gamers than it looses to 3x will not pay off for their economics - 4e will succeed, yes, but will not succeed enough to satisfy Wotc's revenue needs. IMO, 4e is highly unlikely to top or equal 3x's number of players and will "fail" by this measure even as it succeeds more generally. Unlike smaller publishers, who can live well with more modest sales, Wotc needs BIG sales to live well. I don't think they will get those type of numbers and unfortunately good numbers are not good enough for Wotc's economics as they need GREAT numbers. My thought is that this dynanmic will help see 5e very much sooner - 4 to 6 years - than later.

The problem, as I see it, for Wotc is two fold.

First, table top gaming (increasingly) just can't be grown significantly. There are too many other, more readily accessible, as immersive (although differently) options, which the price of paper and thus Wotc's prices will also make even increasingly affordable as compared to D&D. The tide is running against table top paper and pencil games.

Second, Wotc's design of 4e, (a) coming quickly on the heels of the 3.0 and 3.5 editions, both of which were popular, (b) in a non-Grognard friendly, non backwards compatible fashion will see critical (even though well less than a majority) numbers of 3x players not convert, denying Wotc sales in an environment where they need every sale to succeed.

The first wound cannot be avoided; the second is self-inflicted.

I think eventually Hasbro will step in, either demanding 5e or shuttering D&D as a paper and pencil game. Matter of fact, it would not suprise me if 5e was the last paper and pencil version of D&D.

 

[grimslade]

6 years. 5E will come in 2014.

That is 18 "core" books and a bunch of supplements to weigh down the 4E system. I think the 1 core book of each type a year is a disservice to the entry of fresh blood. A more sensible approach would be to introduce a new core for each tier of play. A Heroic PHB, DMG and MM, a paragon level 6 months down the road, an epic set 1 year after launch. Following years can have PHB2 type stuff. Keeps a good revenue stream and keeps the entry barrier at a lower price point. 6 years of PHB will make for a slim pickin's by PHB6.

 

[Epic Meepo]

The problem, as I see it, for Wotc is two fold.

I'd add a third problem to your list. WotC seems intent on using wildly inappropriate business models:

They see MtG making decent money, and decide to sell D&D minis in randomized, trading-card-like boosters. They see Myspace making tons of money, and decide to work towards Gleemax-hosted sites for anyone who wants a campaign homepage. They see WoW making tons of money, so they create a subscription-based D&D tie-in with DDI.

All of that may make for nice peripherals, but I'm hoping their financial forecast isn't banking on making money like WoW, or Myspace, or even MtG. Because, no matter how many frills you try to add, D&D is a book publishing business. Try to have anything more than book publishing at the heart of your business model and you're setting yourself up for failure.

Matter of fact, it would not suprise me if 5e was the last paper and pencil version of D&D.

If Hasbro thought PnP wasn't viable anymore, they wouldn't try to morph D&D into an online game. That would pit Hasbro head-to-head against Blizzard right in the middle of Blizzard's home turf. The only possible result of that battle would be complete devaluation of the D&D brand name.

Instead of doing that, Hasbro would just sell D&D off to someone who thought they could make a better profit in the PnP market. And I'm sure some thrid party publisher or another would be more than happy to take D&D off Hasbro's hands. Heck, I suspect Paizo could take over D&D right now, sell to a market half the current size, and still achieve a better profit margin than WotC ever did with it. And with better PR all the way.

 

[Celebrim]

Four years.

There are several factors:

1) 4e is being bundled tightly to a particular setting.
2) The long historic cycles are not a product of business demands, but rather business turmoil.
3) As much as anything, 3.X died under its own weight. Eventually its own success killed it. Consider how many hard covers 3rd had compared to 1st or 2nd. Earlier editions lived longer because they had fewer supplements. Like smaller stars, it took longer to burn them out. The supplement publishing cycle being adopted in 4e demands an even faster turnover than we saw in 3rd edition. I'd be surprised if 4e lasted much longer than the time span between 3.0 and 3.5.
4) Gaming as a whole is evolving rapidly now due to the increased ubiquitousness of the internet and high speed computing. The line between Pen and Paper game and cRPG is being blurred in a way not possible in the 80's or most of the 90's. It's possible the gaming scene will change so much in the next four years that WotC will feel the need for even further changes in its rules to accomodate the needs of what is latest and greatest in other formats.

 

[BBQ]

There's always been an 8-10 year gap between editions. That will likely not change. I personally welcome 4e and look forward to playing it for years to come.

People seem convinced that 3.0 and 3.5 are different editions. They aren't. One is a revision you can take or leave at your leisure (though, of course, it was recommended).