Will a pair of Owlbears wipe out a 6th-level party?

[OnlineDM]

I'm getting ready for tomorrow's session, and I'm trying out monsters from the Monster Vault. One of my players has made comments in the past that have led me to conclude that an Owlbear encounter would be fun for them.

In the Monster Vault, a standard Owlbear is an 8th-level Elite Brute. There's also a Young Owlbear that's an 8th-level regular Brute. The party is a balanced party of 6th-level characters, pretty well optimized (not totally min-maxed to the hilt, but definitely strong). When they were 5th-level they were able to handle an 8th-level encounter without serious danger of death.

My logic is that two 8th-level Elites are equal to four 8th-level normal creatures by XP value, which would be an 8th-level encounter for my party of four PCs. But when I look at the Owlbear attacks, I gasp in horror for my poor players.

At will, an Owlbear gets to make two Claw attacks at +12 versus AC (the highest AC in the party is 26; the lowest is, I believe, 17). If they both hit, the target is grabbed and takes 8d6+12 damage (4d6+6 from each claw). The highest HP total of any character is in the low 60s. The expected value of this double attack is (3.5*8 + 12 = ) 40 damage. That's the EXPECTED value. The maximum, of course, is 60. That would drop three of my four party members from full health to unconsciousness, and put the fourth dangerously low. Oh, and if the double claw doesn't finish the player, the Owlbear gets to use its Beak Snap the next round to deal 4d8+22 damage with no attack roll required. That will pretty much put anyone who gets grabbed and does not escape below the negative bloodied value.

Now, obviously the Owlbear is not always going to connect with both claws. But when a single at-will attack has that kind of potential, I worry that it's too much to throw at the party. Should I use one Owlbear and one Young Owlbear instead (mama bear teaching baby bear how to hunt)? Three or four Young Owlbears (a gang of Owlbear hoodlums)?

I'm in favor of having the party feel threatened, naturally, but I don't want to throw anything unfair at them. And with the Owlbear having 212 hit points, it's not like the thing is going to drop before it gets to attack, even if everyone unloads daily powers.

What do you think?

 

[LostSoul]

They will be fine.

 

[im_robertb]

The expected value of the double attack, assuming both attacks hit, is 40 damage.
Barring situational modifiers to attack rolls, and going against an AC of 17 (the lowest in the party), the average damage is 32, accounting for the probability of a miss.
Against an AC of 26, which I presume belongs to the defender, the average damage is 14.

Now in reality most of the variability comes down to the attack rolls, but that's an inescapable reality of D&D. If the party can keep both of them on the defender, expect the defender to take 28 damage per round - something that is absolutely manageable.

 

[Almacov]

I'm not one to get too analytical about the math, so I wouldn't worry about it.

What I would do, though, is make sure there's some interesting terrain the party can use to their advantage if they're clever.
Assuming you've got a forest setting planned, that could be as simple as trees to climb and attack from, small burrows or niches to duck into, or nearby water to dive under.
I'd let the owlbears react with some cunning though, perhaps working to topple trees if the party is exploiting them too much, even climbing after them, perhaps. (albeit maybe more slowly)
Just follow instinct as to when you need to amp up the attack, and when you should play them more predictably and let the party eke out advantages from their surroundings.

Oh, and make sure your descriptions are terrifying enough that they grasp the potential for the things to drop them in one hit. (They'll probably get the clue after the first of the party is attacked, suffering major, but likely not immediately lethal, injury.)

You have the potential for a memorable, scary encounter ahead of you!

 

[Squire James]

I say do it. There's nothing like a fighter charging in alone and getting double-critted to 0 HP on Round 1 for testing the party's resolve! That's pretty unlikely to happen, but even if it does it's not the end of the world. Leave an avenue for retreat here, just in case.

The players will have action advantage on 2 creatures, and anyone who can daze or immobilize these babies will be well-loved by all! Forcing them to charge and use a basic attack (note that Double Claw is not a basic attack) is also good.

 

[the Jester]

Sounds like a furious and memorable encounter.

Personally, I like that kind of thing.

 

[OnlineDM]

Well, all right then! Thanks for the quick responses everybody. I definitely would like to have some interesting terrain features, and I'll see what I can do. It's actually a mountainous setting with some sparse trees and some patches of ice (and we do have a spellcaster who could melt that ice with fire). The party will be defending a wagon pulled by two horses and driven by a non-combatant NPC (I could possibly have the NPC holding a healing potion in reserve in case things look dire).

The Owlbears will be hunting for food, and I plan to have them attack the horses first just because they're bigger and meatier. As soon as the PCs attack, though, that will draw the Owlbears' attention. The attack on the horses should give the party an idea of how nasty these things are, but I agree that it will be important for me to make them out to be terrifying from my description.

The PCs who have ranged attacks will also be able to take cover behind or even underneath the wagon if they're clever, so they'll have options.

Thanks again for the input! I'll put up a reply tomorrow that recaps how the encounter went.

 

[im_robertb]

I forgot about the potential for critical hits in my math, but don't worry about it.

 

[AbdulAlhazred]

Yeah, there is a finite chance of someone getting killed, but it isn't too likely. If the players realize that the owlbears have basically just melee attacks they should be able to work it out so they can focus on one and slow, prone, etc the other for a round or two. A couple of dailies and judicious use of terrain and encounter powers for setup, should take 3 or 4 rounds to kill one unless their dice run cold.

It will be a memorable encounter.

 

[wcpfish]

Can switching to Geico save you money on your car insurance? Can a pair of owlbears TPK a 6th level party?