Will this Lead to a TPK? [updated 3/16]

[Mark]

Dragons are tougher than they measure, as said, and particularly in their own element. There is no reason why a dragon needs to do more than safely harry such a group, stranded as they are in a desert, to gage them completely then wait them out. Dragons live long and prosper for a reason.

In your shoes, I might pull a switcharoo and make the dragon an illusion concocted by the giant and the armand as a way to weaken the party before they try to take them themselves.

 

[Zaruthustran]

Does the Sorcerer have Fly as one of his known spells? If not, total TPK. And even so, he can only get 4 or 5 combatants into the air (one at a time, over 4 or 5 rounds). Without advance warning, that means by the time the last person is hit with the spell the battle will be over.

And yeah, if the encounter is outdoors that Blue should never, ever even touch the ground. Just fly and strafe, fly and strafe. Even just zapping one guy at a time (dragons are smart; it'll go for the sorcerer first) Blue's still going to win. And if they do Fly up to meet him, he'll just dive into the sand and burrow (it's DM fiat whether a burrowing dragon leaves a passable tunnel; in sand I'd say the answer is "no").

Heck, if this creature has half a brain it'll flee at the first sign of contact, watch the party from very far away, wait until they camp, hit himself with Invisibility and glide over their camp, destroy all their water, and then just enjoy watching them die of thirst.

Fighting dragons outdoors is just a bad, bad idea.

 

[HeavenShallBurn]

(it's DM fiat whether a burrowing dragon leaves a passable tunnel; in sand I'd say the answer is "no").

Agree with you just would like to point out that it was specifically called out that burrowing dragons do not leave a passable tunnel behind as of the Draconominicon.

Fighting dragons outdoors is just a bad, bad idea.

Words for PCs to avoid TPKs by. Dragons are under CRed by about 3(varies a bit on either side) this is actually a CR17 encounter. When you place the PCs in the dragon's favored environment, on an open plain, it will be a massacre. There are potentially viable strategies I know because they've been used on me before. But they require a massive level of powergaming and teamwork. Even then they're fringe cases.

 

[jmucchiello]

Does the Sorcerer have Fly as one of his known spells? If not, total TPK. And even so, he can only get 4 or 5 combatants into the air (one at a time, over 4 or 5 rounds). Without advance warning, that means by the time the last person is hit with the spell the battle will be over.

Fly is a drop of water in this desert. The dragon will be 2.5-4x faster than fliers and he can just fly away for 5-10 minutes and come back when the spell is finished if he's nervous about flying humanoids.

A leisurely TPK is guaranteed if the dragon wants them dead.

 

[BlueBlackRed]

Yup, open air and an experienced dragon in his element means the death of the PC's.

Fly in, breathe lightning from above, hitting only 1 or 2 targets at a time, then fly away until breathe recharges.
Repeat until PC's hand over all treasure and food.

Unfair? Sure is.
But look at the dragon's intelligence & wisdom.
Unless you've given him the persona of a dragon who likes to get down and dirty with melee, or a similar sense of honor (that darn lawful evil alignment), then he's going to get what he wants.

If you don't want a TPK, bring in a good desert dragon after the party takes some good hits and make the blue fly away.
And from that point on, have the blue seek revenge by sending minions after the party on occasion until the party can realistically handle the dragon.

 

[Wolfspider]

I'm all for encounters with dragons being tough and memorable, but this one seems like overkill.

I'm sure it will be memorable, though. After all, I always remember when my character is slaughtered.

 

[Grymar]

TPK.

Just on the defensive side, each breath attack is going to average about 50 hit points of damage, 25 on a successful VERY DIFFICULT save. Frightful presence alone will affect probably 1/2 of the group. Spell Resistance and high AC will make it nearly impossible to hit.

For them to survive the giant is going to have to do all of the work...which makes me ask then why have the PCs around? Nothing makes a player more discouraged than to see an NPC do all of the work while they are nothing but cannon fodder.

 

[Jhaelen]

I'm really envisioning this dragon to be like a train robber. He shows up - tells everyone to put their hands up, give him no trouble, then he takes what he wants (camels & some treasure) and then he goes on his merry way. It's when a passenger tries to go for their gun that he resorts to violence.

He understands that killing everyone that comes in his territory is bad for business. He's just collecting his cut.

Well that sounds fine to me. About all of my dragon encounters so far went that way...

However, it depends on your players: How likely are they to join an all-out fight? Also, your initial setup seems to suggest the players SHOULD try to combat the beasty.

MY personal rule is: If the monster is supposed to be beaten in combat it must not have a CR more than 4 higher than the lowest PC's level. Otherwise, the chance of dead characters is simply too high.

I'd suggest using a slightly younger dragon but adding some kind of minion(s).

 

[billd91]

It looks grim to me. If the dragon fights smart, out in the desert they're hosed.

I'd consider letting the PC build up to it. If they're willing to be bait, let them be bait with a bogus caravan... and let the dragon have it so they can observe the thing. Involve a quest to its lair to deal with its spawn while it's away. Maybe a side quest for some decent protection against lightning.

If they're going into this with their eyes open, why shouldn't they get their stuff together and actually prep for it?

 

[Cyberhawk]

Sounds like it would be a very tough fight. There are a couple of things you could do to even the odds:

1. give the party a magical item that will negate the dragon's flight ability. ("Look! A wand of wing entrapment, how lucky!" or something...) Make sure the party knows it's a 1-use item.
Now you have a nasty melee encounter which should be in the party's favor.

2. Have the dragon concentrate on the NPCs first. This will give the PCs a couple of basicly free rounds to pound on it. Also the first couple of deaths will ratchet up the tension without any players actually getting knocked out of the action.