WotC should make an online SRD....

[Oldtimer]

So if the PDF gets bought or pirated, that's a lost sale on the hard copy.

That is only correct if everyone on Earth is mandated by law to possess a copy of all D&D material.

Yes, someone who obtained a PDF might have bought a hard copy instead. Or not. I would say, in all likelyhood, not.

You cannot just look at an accuired PDF as a lost sale of a hard copy. Figure out a way to make money instead. That's what business is all about. And I don't believe they where loosing money on the PDFs they sold. Or, at least, they shouldn't be loosing money on them.

As long as they are going to steal it, we want them to steal ours. They'll get sort of addicted, and then we'll somehow figure out how to collect sometime in the next decade.

 

[DracoSuave]

You cannot just look at an accuired PDF as a lost sale of a hard copy. Figure out a way to make money instead.

They DO have a way to make money: Sell hard copies. To say that they're somehow failing in doing so by failing to spend money to make PDFs is naive and not looking at the whole picture.

Hard Copies -are- the means to compete with a pirated copy, because a PDF lacks a lot of the Hard Copy's advantages-- you can pass it around a table, lend it to your friends, and it doesn't require equipment that costs 10 times the original text.

Thus, hard copies have that 'You could pirate, but you need to buy it to get these features.' DDI also has that same feature. PDFs do not... you buy a PDF from wizards, it's no different than a PDF you pirated that someone else bought, except for the legal threat that frankly doesn't come to the end user of the pirated goods.

The fact is, they tried it, it failed, and instead of living in a dream world where it should have worked, instead, look at what happened, and base any theories on how it -could- work on how it -did- work and what went wrong.

At the end, they decided to spend zero dollars, not enable piracy, and not compete with their own primary revenue source. Any idea anyone else has involves them spending money. As a business, I can see why they chose to stop spending money in that direction.

Hell, as far as we know, the decision might not even be related to the above. It could be as simple as 'It costs us ten thousand dollars to produce a single pdf and we made ten thousand dollars in sales.' THAT is reason enough not to do it.

 

[talarei07]

i read somewhere that for every copy of the players handbook 2 that was sold in stores 4 were pirated. but on the other side of that wizards ran out of copies of it within days. not that it makes ok to pirate it but if they would have printed more it may not of the case

 

[Black Knight Irios]

i read somewhere that for every copy of the players handbook 2 that was sold in stores 4 were pirated. but on the other side of that wizards ran out of copies of it within days. not that it makes ok to pirate it but if they would have printed more it may not of the case

Nice numbers you've got there but I believe they're rather useless. There are several reasons for this. First, we have got no numbers to compare with them. Second, we don't know if the book being out of stock has anything to do with those numbers. Third, it it possible that every owner of the book also owns an illegal copy and that some of those that downloaded an illegal copy later on bought the book. Therefore, I would'nt read much into those two numbers.

Anyway, I think it would be really nice to have something like the 3.5 SRD for 4E.

 

[Ferghis]

I think, using their experience having actually released PDFs, they found it to be inviable.

Anything else is guesswork, but they actually have experience in doing so. You can question how it 'could make them money' but the fact is, they didn't, and as a business, you can probably gather it was because it was not making them money.

Other companies are doing it, so, by that measuring stick, it must be viable. Further, much as I respect WotC, I do think they have made mistakes sometimes, so I'm more hesitant to rely on their conclusions, if any was really drawn in this matter.

However, I must make my ignorance clear. I don't know much about their history of pdf sales. I know they used to selll 1e pdfs, and they no longer do. The reason behind this is a complete mystery to me, since I beleive firmly that it in no way competes with 4e. I know that Steve Jackson Games sells pdfs and has a very transparent business model (relatively speaking) that has addressed the issue plainly in one of the yearly reports. I don't remember the details now, but they said that it had no detrimental impact to sell pdfs.

Let's say they put it in PDF form. Few customers actually get both PDF and hard copy. So if the PDF gets bought or pirated, that's a lost sale on the hard copy.

Hard copies require manufacture. And that incurrs costs. In this case, you need to sell enough copies to not only cover the costs of their manufacture, but also the manufacture of future copies, so that you can have a continued supply.

The lost sale is made up by the made sale. It seems to be a wash in that particular scenario. Further, the costs for producing pdfs is lower than the costs of producing printed books. So, in the net, there is more of a gain, assuming that pdfs would be sold at the same price. If the pdfs REALLY took off, which I doubt, they would be forced to make smaller runs of the printed stuff, raising the cost of the printed stuff. But I beleive this would be more than offset by the sales of the pdfs, in that scenario (wherein the pdfs sell a lot).

Yes, it COSTS money to produce PDFs, and the worst part is, PDFs put out directly by wizards don't have anything to compete against PDFs that are pirated, especially when said pirated PDFs are the exact same file. So, from a business standpoint, the only feature you're selling is 'They are legal' which is hard (and expensive) to enforce.

I don't think pdf sales would seriously impact pirated copies either, at least not in any real sense. I do believe that some folks (probably not many) who don't buy books would buy them.

As an aside, I think it would be a smart move in terms of removing the fig leaf of pirates who say they want a pdf so are forced to download illegal content. I think the cost of producing a pdf is worth that alone.

If you think that the PDF market is large enough to be sustainable for D&D, you're being naive.

I certainly do enjoy my fair slice of naivete'. Tastes delicious, and keeps me in a good mood. However, I do not think that pdfs can exclusively sustain WotC, at least not currently. I simply think that if they sold pdfs, releasing them a bit after the books came out, and the pdfs were good, they would make more money than they do now, simply because I'm guessing the number of overall sales would grow.

 

[Nikosandros]

I simply think that if they sold pdfs, releasing them a bit after the books came out, and the pdfs were good, they would make more money than they do now, simply because I'm guessing the number of overall sales would grow.

Yes, releasing the PDFs two or three months after the book would seem reasonable.

 

[AbdulAlhazred]

Yeah, there are a few interesting points to be made here. First there is NO cost of producing PDFs. All modern printing houses print from PDF. At worst you would want to add some indexing and whatnot. It could hardly cost a couple grand to do this work (I've actually done a couple of these projects, its not expensive).

There is SOME minor cost of sales, you have to run the online sales system, so its not perfectly free, but when you consider that the markup on books is probably 50% (at least) and the cost to print is not low either its quite easy to believe that the profit on a PDF is equivalent or higher than on a printed copy.

Cannibalism of print sales by PDFs IS a legitimate concern, but given the existence of PDFs regardless its probably not that big a deal.

In any case WotC can't sit around in the situation they are in now. They obviously desire a lower price point for their product as the Essentials line amply proves. Beyond that the ultimate cheap price point is PDFs (or similar) on an ebook reader. Dead tree format is well, DEAD. That business model will linger on for a few more years, but they have to figure something out, and training their customer base to accept and want digital products is the most sensible course.

Basically the whole problem is you have a big old-school company that just doesn't get it. At best they're hoping to hang on with the status quo until the bitter end.

Its hard to say its stupid, but they are basing their business on a dying business model. Sooner or later (and probably fairly sooner) they'll HAVE to transition.

 

[DracoSuave]

Yeah, there are a few interesting points to be made here. First there is NO cost of producing PDFs.

Except, of course, you have to pay someone to remove the publisher-specific details, the indexing you mention below, not to mention run the server.

All modern printing houses print from PDF. At worst you would want to add some indexing and whatnot. It could hardly cost a couple grand to do this work (I've actually done a couple of these projects, its not expensive).

It's a far cry from zero.

There is SOME minor cost of sales, you have to run the online sales system, so its not perfectly free, but when you consider that the markup on books is probably 50% (at least) and the cost to print is not low either its quite easy to believe that the profit on a PDF is equivalent or higher than on a printed copy.

Profit per PDF, but that doesn't mean the total profit is possible to be higher.

[qupte]Cannibalism of print sales by PDFs IS a legitimate concern, but given the existence of PDFs regardless its probably not that big a deal.[/quote]

That's guesswork. They may have a different view of the subject. Including research that speculation based on what would be nice cannot compete with.

In any case WotC can't sit around in the situation they are in now.

Profitable?

They obviously desire a lower price point for their product as the Essentials line amply proves. Beyond that the ultimate cheap price point is PDFs (or similar) on an ebook reader.

I don't deny they want to offer a lower entry point into the game. But PDFs aren't the way to do so.

Dead tree format is well, DEAD. That business model will linger on for a few more years, but they have to figure something out, and training their customer base to accept and want digital products is the most sensible course.

This is utter nonsense. PDFs are only convenient for a small subset of their customer base. For others, it is terribly inconvenient. Hard Copy has a few advantages, including the ability to display it, the abilty to sell it, and the ability to convince brick and mortar shops to -DEMONSTRATE- it.

Yes, you did forget that aspect, where the retailer actually is encouraged to sell your product for you. Where customers can pick it up and actually look at it.

NEVER underestimate the salability of a physical product you can hold. When e-readers, kindles, and all that sort of things start costing less than 50 dollars, then and only then will you see them being a viable competitor for hard copy books for anything other than a -very- small minority of the consumer base.

Not to mention, what is the market saturation of these e-readers? How many of their potential customers actually have them? Compare that to the number of customers who have eyes and hands.

Basically the whole problem is you have a big old-school company that just doesn't get it. At best they're hoping to hang on with the status quo until the bitter end.

Your doom and gloom is hardly accurate. It's wishful thinking disguised as futurism. I can hold a book. I can't hold a PDF. And your retailers will help you establish a customer base with a physical book.

Its hard to say its stupid, but they are basing their business on a dying business model. Sooner or later (and probably fairly sooner) they'll HAVE to transition.

Brick and Mortar gaming stores are hardly a dying model, the business is having a resurgence due to the increase in salability of other games which can't be sold online.

Has any roleplayer started roleplaying by seeing a PDF being offered on sale? Or has every single new customer of roleplaying products been enticed to do so by PLAYING them.

How does a PDF overcome that barrier?

An ALL PDF roleplaying industry is a dead industry. Because NO ONE is bringing in new customers.

EDIT:

Not to mention, the target demographic for Dungeons and Dragons are younger than the kindle-carrying set. You're thinking it's convenient for a 26 year old, they're trying to sell to people literally half your age. The sort that are more tactile, and want experiences. The Timmies of the world are their target.

You don't sell PDFs to Timmy.

 

[AbdulAlhazred]

DS, I don't think your points are without merit but frankly a Nook or Kindle is less than 200 bucks today and YES they will be 50 bucks next year and 25 bucks the year after that. Basically what you're repeating as conventional wisdom is exactly the kind of thinking that kills businesses. The world has always been like X, it always will be and anyone that thinks otherwise is a dreamer and a fool, so don't try to tell us we need to make these newfangled automobiles, they'll never replace a good horse and buggy.

Now, nobody can argue that every new idea is going to revolutionize the world, but in this case its already plainly happening. The industry may be getting dragged kicking and screaming into the modern age, but its getting there.

Of course nobody can say exactly how long the transition will be and exactly what the result will look like. Maybe you're right and its too soon for WotC to move forward. I would however point out that large businesses are actually notoriously bad at understanding these kinds of changes. I would put little to no weight on the fact that Hasbro is sticking to the old way of doing things. Given that the more successful RPG publishers are all moving forward rapidly I'd say the best way to look at it is the Hasbro dinosaur is stuck in the mud while guys like Steve Jackson are leaving them in the dust (and trust me Steve is quite probably the smartest guy in the industry hands down). I'll bet on him over the management of an old school behemoth any day of the week.

 

[DracoSuave]

I'd say the best way to look at it is the Hasbro dinosaur is stuck in the mud while guys like Steve Jackson are leaving them in the dust (and trust me Steve is quite probably the smartest guy in the industry hands down). I'll bet on him over the management of an old school behemoth any day of the week.

I wouldn't call Wizards of the Coast--a self-made giant that's been around for less years than Steve Jackson games--an old school behemoth.

You're comparing a small company, and one that has a niche market, the older gamer, and the strategy they have to target that niche market, to the company that has a larger market, and is trying to reach more people.

Yes, technology that reaches that smaller market will be more effective for that smaller company. The larger company, however, cannot survive on pdf sales, which are to them, -very- small change.

As well, that large company sustains the entire industry simply by bringing in those younger demographics. Without people starting to play D&D, there is no people moving on to play GURPS.

One is important to the industry, and is necessary for its survival in its current form. The other is competing for a small subset of that industry.

The two cannot be compared so simply.