Interesting article. I don't agree with his points about the ogl's failure from an
Iterative, User Driven *What* Now? perspective, though. I'm not saying the ogl has no drawbacks - it has - but I don't think that was one of them.
More specifically, he is looking at its success from that of designers or publishers - and naturally so. Perhaps from that perspective, his point has merit. But from the perspective of an end-user, a gamer, it doesn't.
For mearls, it's a point of failure that innovations occured in a fragmentary fashion, but for a gamer that's not such a big issue, except from an ease-of-use consideration. I can see where mearls is coming from here - innovations were widespread but there was no strong movement to consolidate them into an evolving core ruleset (although it did happen here and there.)
However, for the gamer, the ogl allowed us access to all of these innovations and gave us the opportunity to incorporate them into our own games. And this, I think, is the real success of the ogl. It has enriched the games of players the world over - and that's what it's all about at the end of the day.
To take examples from my own homebrew, I use races from a handful of sources (mainly core but also Sword & Sorcery and Arcana Evolved, and athas.org for my DS games.) Classes come from all over the place (mainly WotC and Malhavoc at the moment). I use the favoured class rules from ogl Conan, the magic system from Arcana Evolved, monsters from Necromancer, White Wolf and Malhavoc. For hit points I use Monte Cook's Grace, Health and Breather rules, and have just switched the core combat, xp and advancement system from WotC's to Pathfinder. And next campaign arc I'll be using armour as DR and defence bonus.
None of that would have been possible without the ogl, so from this gamer's (admittedly anecdotal) perspective, that element of it has been anything but a failure.
I have the impression that mearls would have liked to have seen these innovations be more widely propagated throughout the d20 system, but I think that misses the point. As he says, not everyone can agree on what changes to make - and nor should they have to. This is where his computer code analogy fails. In programming, it's desirable to have uniformity of code. In gaming, it's not necessary, because the whims and desires of gamers vary widely. Instead of uniformity, the ogl brought us wild diversity, a huge range of choices, and a big damn toolbox from which to pick and choose our system elements.
(There is also the consideration that the market leader - WotC - did not embrace the innovations of other companies anywhere near as well as it should have. The widespread propagation of innovation that mearls might have wanted would have been far more successful had WotC started using more ideas from other sources and folding these back into the core rules. It happened here and there, but nowhere near as much as it could have.)
So I'm not sure that the ogl can be termed a failure from the perspective of the gamer. Maybe so from the perspective of a publisher or a designer - but then I'd question the assumption that the ogl was intended to benefit designers and publishers as much as it was meant to enrich players. I'm sure that benefitting publishers and designers was a consideration, but I think that enriching gamers was more important - and rightly so.
All the same, a very interesting read. Thanks for the link