Is D&D Entering a New Golden Age?

Sales of the hobby game market are on the rise, with tabletop role-playing games increasing along with other tabletop games. With a new Wizards of the Coast CEO in place who values Dungeons & Dragons as much as Magic: The Gathering and a movie on the horizon, we're starting to see signs that D&D is doing very well indeed. Picture courtesy of Unsplash. The Hobby Market is Doing Well ICv2...

Sales of the hobby game market are on the rise, with tabletop role-playing games increasing along with other tabletop games. With a new Wizards of the Coast CEO in place who values Dungeons & Dragons as much as Magic: The Gathering and a movie on the horizon, we're starting to see signs that D&D is doing very well indeed.

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Picture courtesy of Unsplash.​

The Hobby Market is Doing Well

ICv2 reported that the hobby market is hitting eye-popping numbers:
Sales of hobby games in the U.S. and Canada topped $1.4 billion in 2016, reaching $1.44 billion, according to a new estimate compiled by ICv2 and reported in Internal Correspondence #92. That’s a 21% total growth rate over 2015, with rates of change ranging from 17% for the slowest-growing category to 29% for the fastest-growing. Growth rates were pulled higher by more rapid growth of hobby games in the mass channel, especially in collectible, board, and card & dice games.
Of those categories, collectible games grew the most, followed by hobby board games and role-playing games. Role-playing games increased the most, by 29%, from $35 million to $45 million. Of the top five RPGs, Dungeons & Dragons Fifth Edition and Pathfinder retained their first and second position, respectively.

Ancillary RPG markets are doing well too, like non-collectible miniatures. Non-collectible miniature sales were up from $175 million to $205 million, a 17% increase. Star Wars X-Wing led the charge, followed by Warhammer 40K and D&D's Nolzur's Marvels Minis, high-quality unpainted miniatures produced by Wizkids.

Unsurprisingly, Hasbro is benefiting from this bump.

Hasbro's Games Are Doing Well

Hasbro topped $5 billion in revenue for the first time:
Net revenues for the full-year 2016 increased 13% to $5.02 billion versus $4.45 billion in 2015. Excluding a negative $61.0 million impact from foreign exchange, 2016 revenues increased 14%. As reported net earnings for the full-year 2016 increased 22% to $551.4 million, or $4.34 per diluted share, compared to $451.8 million, or $3.57 per diluted share in 2015. Adjusted net earnings for the full-year 2016 were $566.1 million, or $4.46 per diluted share. Adjusted 2016 earnings exclude a pre-tax $32.9 million, or $0.12 per diluted share, non-cash fourth quarter goodwill impairment charge related to Backflip Studios. Adjusted full-year 2016 net earnings compares to 2015 adjusted net earnings of $445.0 million, or $3.51 per diluted share, which exclude a pre-tax gain of $9.6 million from the sale of the Company's manufacturing operations in East Longmeadow, MA and Waterford, Ireland.
Hasbro gaming increased by 23%, reflecting the hobby games market trends:
Hasbro's total gaming category, including all gaming revenue, most notably MAGIC: THE GATHERING and MONOPOLY, totaled $518.7 million for the fourth quarter 2016, up 11%, and $1,387.1 million, up 9%, for the full year 2016. Hasbro believes its gaming portfolio is a competitive differentiator and views it in its entirety.
Note that last sentence. Hasbro experienced a decline in Magic: The Gathering sales, and it's likely the leadership team was eager to share other good news in its gaming segment. That would turn out to be beneficial for D&D.

D&D is Doing Well

Hasbro CEO Brian Goldner did something unusual -- he mentioned Dungeons & Dragons on an investor call. For years, D&D has been overshadowed by Magic: The Gathering's success when Hasbro reported out Wizards of the Coast's wins to investors. The shout-out alone on the Q1 investor call says something about D&D's success:
I also am very happy to see very strong growth for brands like DUNGEONS & DRAGONS and Duel Masters. So, the team at (46:34) has gone to a new storytelling modality for MAGIC and, obviously, impacted the quarter. But they've also done some very good work around DUNGEONS and storytelling and in engagement with that audience. So overall, I would expect that our face-to-face gaming business will continue to perform at a high level and the team's done an absolutely stellar job at both the social media oriented games, as well as some more of our classic games.
Hasbro seems to have a renewed interest in what they term "face-to-face" and "social" games, thanks to its launch of the Hasbro Gaming Crate that focuses on getting people to play together -- a staple of D&D. This is of course Wizards of the Coast's specialty. Investors are noticing.

Jim Cramer on Mad Money led the segment with an old D&D commercial and mentioned the RPG along with Star Wars as brands that allow Hasbro to "bring imagination to life." Cramer interviewed Goldner, who had some nice things to say about D&D:
...and our games business, a raft of great games. Dungeons & Dragons up 50%, Monopoly was of course up, and then of course Magic: The Gathering was up. So great strength in games, 6% growth, 20% growth in the gaming category overall...both Magic: The Gathering and Dungeons & Dragons are on our Twitch programming... Dungeons & Dragons did a very special Twitch channel that they launched with the fans. We've had millions of views on Twitch around Dungeons & Dragons. We're seeing the brand really in resurgence.
So what does this mean for the future of D&D?

The Future of D&D

D&D's demographics have shifted, according to the Daily News, with more female and older players:
While Wizards of the Coast, which manages the D&D franchise, won't share sales figures, reps tell the Daily News that Millennials (ages 25 to 34) presently make up the largest group of D&D players, followed closely by those aged 35 to 44 and 18 to 24 — and up to 30% of these gamers are girls.
The success of Pathfinder, the Old School Renaissance, mainstream fantasy media, and the nostalgia of gamer kids reaching the 35 to 44 age range in creative fields like movies and television is likely a major factor in the renewed interest in D&D. Todd Kenreck explains on Forbes:
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King won 11 Oscars in 2004. 16 million people watched the premiere of season 7 of Game of Thrones this year. A serious interest in cinematic fantasy storytelling has steadily reached a fevered pitch and with the game D&D itself seeing a tremendous resurgence, this the perfect time for a Dungeons & Dragons movie or series that puts acting and story first. Like comic books before them, D&D the role-playing game is filled with stories, art, characters and world building that have been largerly left unused by television or film...The game has had impact on so many of the writers, actors, directors and show-runners making television and film today that is might not be a matter of if, but when.
Will Joe Manganiello pull off a film that does D&D justice? A confluence of events -- the rise of social gaming, nostalgia for D&D, and the increasing accessibility of the D&D brand thanks to live streaming -- might be the perfect time for him to pull it off.
 

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Michael Tresca

Michael Tresca

Tony Vargas

Legend
To be fair, fixed HP/level started out as an option in 3e. 4e made it part of core and, frankly, so did 5e. You don't have to roll for HP in 5e. They largely kept the idea of fixed HP the same.

Not in dispute, I was reacting to idea of HD ' retaining their original meaning' in an ed that never used either the term, nor it's meaning.

. 4E is scaffolded upon 3E...
To be clear, I certainly acknowledge the lineage - 4e may have been more revolutionary than evolution from 3e, but it's still a clear successor.
 
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ddaley

Explorer
Maybe I have been playing D&D for too long to see a problem with HD. However, I was not a fan of healing surges and am not a fan of spending points to heal in 5e... but that is a different mechanic (which happens to be based on HD). But, I think those mechanics were done to speed up game play. I remember our party camping out for days or a week in order to heal up... waiting for the cleric to get healing spells each day in order to get the party back up to fighting strength. I am not sure people would have the patience for that now.
 

Erechel

Explorer
I hope that we are in a new golden age for D&D. I'm so sick for nostalgia winning over. 5e is actually a great game, although it's by no means perfect, and it should lead the new TTRPG era. It is, after all the first and most developed RPG.
 

Tony Vargas

Legend
I hope that we are in a new golden age for D&D. I'm so sick for nostalgia winning over.
Don't see any signs of that changing. 5e's not OSRIC or anything but it's plenty retro-nostalgic in 'feel,' by design.

This is really more of a 'Silver Age.'

I remember our party camping out for days or a week in order to heal up... waiting for the cleric to get healing spells each day in order to get the party back up to fighting strength. I am not sure people would have the patience for that now.
A lot of people didn't have the patience for it back then.
Now we call them 'returning players.' ;)
 
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shoak1

Banned
Banned
No Golden Age for D and D 5e.....Its a dinosaur of an edition/game that specifically is built contrary, and as a reaction to, modern Gamist principles - despite its self serving and self proclaimed label as "The Edition for Everyone". Its sloppy, inconsistent, imbalanced, and fluffy.

You present a lot of supposed evidence it is doing well ("Wizards won't release sales figures but....") but the only real thing that matters is how often they release new books/modules/gadgets/etc. If the game was actually doing well, we would see a LOT more releases - strike while the iron's hot so to speak. Capitalism exposes the Posers every time lol....

D and D 5e = Poser, propped up by excited Revolutionaries who won the edition wars and are excited. [yawn]
 
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cmad1977

Hero
No Golden Age for D and D 5e.....Its a dinosaur of an edition/game that specifically is built contrary, and as a reaction to, modern Gamist principles - despite its self serving and self proclaimed label as "The Edition for Everyone". Its sloppy, inconsistent, imbalanced, and fluffy.

You present a lot of supposed evidence it is doing well ("Wizards won't release sales figures but....") but the only real thing that matters is how often they release new books/modules/gadgets/etc. If the game was actually doing well, we would see a LOT more releases - strike while the iron's hot so to speak. Capitalism exposes the Posers every time lol....

D and D 5e = Poser, propped up by excited Revolutionaries who won the edition wars and are excited. [yawn]

Sour grapes makes for bad whine.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

Hussar

Legend
No Golden Age for D and D 5e.....Its a dinosaur of an edition/game that specifically is built contrary, and as a reaction to, modern Gamist principles - despite its self serving and self proclaimed label as "The Edition for Everyone". Its sloppy, inconsistent, imbalanced, and fluffy.

You present a lot of supposed evidence it is doing well ("Wizards won't release sales figures but....") but the only real thing that matters is how often they release new books/modules/gadgets/etc. If the game was actually doing well, we would see a LOT more releases - strike while the iron's hot so to speak. Capitalism exposes the Posers every time lol....

D and D 5e = Poser, propped up by excited Revolutionaries who won the edition wars and are excited. [yawn]

Umm, you realize that at the tail end of 2e, TSR was banging out tons of supplements.

And they went out of business.

Number of supplements =/= health of the hobby.

And in pure sales terms, I wouldn't be surprised to see 5e selling more total books/year (as in add together all sales per year) than any other edition than possibly 1st for the age of the edition. Let's not forget that 3e by this point had tanked so badly that they brought out 3.5 a year or two early. 3.5 tanked so hard that they had to bring out 4e two years early. The fact that they are doing that with a handful of titles is just icing on the cake.
 

aramis erak

Legend
Umm, you realize that at the tail end of 2e, TSR was banging out tons of supplements.

And they went out of business.

Number of supplements =/= health of the hobby.

And in pure sales terms, I wouldn't be surprised to see 5e selling more total books/year (as in add together all sales per year) than any other edition than possibly 1st for the age of the edition. Let's not forget that 3e by this point had tanked so badly that they brought out 3.5 a year or two early. 3.5 tanked so hard that they had to bring out 4e two years early. The fact that they are doing that with a handful of titles is just icing on the cake.

Mearls said that 5E already has outsold every other edition... He implied a corebook-by-corebook basis.
 

Jacob Lewis

Ye Olde GM
So what does a "new Golden Age" really mean, anyway? I read a lot of fluff regarding the sales numbers compared to previous editions, the growing widespread popularity with mainstream audiences, and the greater accessibility through modernized media outlets through streaming channels and virtual tabletops.

There's no doubt that this edition is a financial and spiritual success. Sales numbers continue to impress those impressed by sales numbers. The brand continues to dominate our quirky little niche industry regardless if it puts out a dozen products a month or a dozen products to date. For once, I think the company has figured out the magical economic formula that produces the greatest profit margins in a finicky market, and a release model that is attractive to newcomers who may have been intimidated in the past by a meatier and more complex catalogue. (Gosh, I think I just sparked six more related discussions worthy of their own topics!)

But what does any of this really mean for me? I don't use the current ruleset. This was the least used edition of the game I have ever encountered, and that, quite frankly, doesn't feel like a "Golden Age" for me. More like fading Twilight and the end of an era, but that's my own personal perspective. It is also the inception of my own idea regarding this particular idea, which is defining what a "Golden Age" really means for someone who isn't currently subscribing to the new ways.

Let's be clear: I have been, and always will be, a fan of D&D. This is not, however, a "Golden Age" for me. At least, not where it involves D&D. 5th Edition offers nothing new or interesting for me, so I moved on. No hard feelings. It was a clean break. But I still have four previous editions and various spin-offs and clone systems that I enjoy. And yes, I would even borrow freely the parts from 5e that I like best. But the best experiences of my gaming life actually came to my table(s) during 3rd and (surprisingly!) 4th Editions. You can debate all you want how 5e is superior to previous editions in terms of sales, layout, awards, production, etc. But when it comes down to each and every one of us as individuals at our own personal game tables, it hardly seems relevant.

The Golden Age of D&D has passed over my game table, and it was glorious! The dawn of a new age (of rebellion!) has come. And ironically, I have 5th Edition D&D to thank for that. My point is: don't let the big picture make you lose sight of the most important view that is your own game table. If your group is playing 5th Edition D&D, Arcane Quest, X-Wing, or any of a thousand thousand other insanely fun and entertaining games on a regular basis, you're already having your own Golden Age. Enjoy it! That's really the only standard by which we, as individual game enthusiasts, should be measuring.

Game on.
 

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