Is D&D Entering a New Golden Age?

Sales of the hobby game market are on the rise, with tabletop role-playing games increasing along with other tabletop games. With a new Wizards of the Coast CEO in place who values Dungeons & Dragons as much as Magic: The Gathering and a movie on the horizon, we're starting to see signs that D&D is doing very well indeed.

Picture courtesy of Unsplash.​

The Hobby Market is Doing Well​

ICv2 reported that the hobby market is hitting eye-popping numbers:

Sales of hobby games in the U.S. and Canada topped $1.4 billion in 2016, reaching $1.44 billion, according to a new estimate compiled by ICv2 and reported in Internal Correspondence #92. That’s a 21% total growth rate over 2015, with rates of change ranging from 17% for the slowest-growing category to 29% for the fastest-growing. Growth rates were pulled higher by more rapid growth of hobby games in the mass channel, especially in collectible, board, and card & dice games.

Of those categories, collectible games grew the most, followed by hobby board games and role-playing games. Role-playing games increased the most, by 29%, from $35 million to $45 million. Of the top five RPGs, Dungeons & Dragons Fifth Edition and Pathfinder retained their first and second position, respectively.

Ancillary RPG markets are doing well too, like non-collectible miniatures. Non-collectible miniature sales were up from $175 million to $205 million, a 17% increase. Star Wars X-Wing led the charge, followed by Warhammer 40K and D&D's Nolzur's Marvels Minis, high-quality unpainted miniatures produced by Wizkids.

Unsurprisingly, Hasbro is benefiting from this bump.

Hasbro's Games Are Doing Well​

Hasbro topped $5 billion in revenue for the first time:

Net revenues for the full-year 2016 increased 13% to $5.02 billion versus $4.45 billion in 2015. Excluding a negative $61.0 million impact from foreign exchange, 2016 revenues increased 14%. As reported net earnings for the full-year 2016 increased 22% to $551.4 million, or $4.34 per diluted share, compared to $451.8 million, or $3.57 per diluted share in 2015. Adjusted net earnings for the full-year 2016 were $566.1 million, or $4.46 per diluted share. Adjusted 2016 earnings exclude a pre-tax $32.9 million, or $0.12 per diluted share, non-cash fourth quarter goodwill impairment charge related to Backflip Studios. Adjusted full-year 2016 net earnings compares to 2015 adjusted net earnings of $445.0 million, or $3.51 per diluted share, which exclude a pre-tax gain of $9.6 million from the sale of the Company's manufacturing operations in East Longmeadow, MA and Waterford, Ireland.

Hasbro gaming increased by 23%, reflecting the hobby games market trends:

Hasbro's total gaming category, including all gaming revenue, most notably MAGIC: THE GATHERING and MONOPOLY, totaled $518.7 million for the fourth quarter 2016, up 11%, and $1,387.1 million, up 9%, for the full year 2016. Hasbro believes its gaming portfolio is a competitive differentiator and views it in its entirety.

Note that last sentence. Hasbro experienced a decline in Magic: The Gathering sales, and it's likely the leadership team was eager to share other good news in its gaming segment. That would turn out to be beneficial for D&D.

D&D is Doing Well​

Hasbro CEO Brian Goldner did something unusual -- he mentioned Dungeons & Dragons on an investor call. For years, D&D has been overshadowed by Magic: The Gathering's success when Hasbro reported out Wizards of the Coast's wins to investors. The shout-out alone on the Q1 investor call says something about D&D's success:

I also am very happy to see very strong growth for brands like DUNGEONS & DRAGONS and Duel Masters. So, the team at (46:34) has gone to a new storytelling modality for MAGIC and, obviously, impacted the quarter. But they've also done some very good work around DUNGEONS and storytelling and in engagement with that audience. So overall, I would expect that our face-to-face gaming business will continue to perform at a high level and the team's done an absolutely stellar job at both the social media oriented games, as well as some more of our classic games.

Hasbro seems to have a renewed interest in what they term "face-to-face" and "social" games, thanks to its launch of the Hasbro Gaming Crate that focuses on getting people to play together -- a staple of D&D. This is of course Wizards of the Coast's specialty. Investors are noticing.

Jim Cramer on Mad Money led the segment with an old D&D commercial and mentioned the RPG along with Star Wars as brands that allow Hasbro to "bring imagination to life." Cramer interviewed Goldner, who had some nice things to say about D&D:

...and our games business, a raft of great games. Dungeons & Dragons up 50%, Monopoly was of course up, and then of course Magic: The Gathering was up. So great strength in games, 6% growth, 20% growth in the gaming category overall...both Magic: The Gathering and Dungeons & Dragons are on our Twitch programming... Dungeons & Dragons did a very special Twitch channel that they launched with the fans. We've had millions of views on Twitch around Dungeons & Dragons. We're seeing the brand really in resurgence.

So what does this mean for the future of D&D?

The Future of D&D​

D&D's demographics have shifted, according to the Daily News, with more female and older players:

While Wizards of the Coast, which manages the D&D franchise, won't share sales figures, reps tell the Daily News that Millennials (ages 25 to 34) presently make up the largest group of D&D players, followed closely by those aged 35 to 44 and 18 to 24 — and up to 30% of these gamers are girls.

The success of Pathfinder, the Old School Renaissance, mainstream fantasy media, and the nostalgia of gamer kids reaching the 35 to 44 age range in creative fields like movies and television is likely a major factor in the renewed interest in D&D. Todd Kenreck explains on Forbes:

The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King won 11 Oscars in 2004. 16 million people watched the premiere of season 7 of Game of Thrones this year. A serious interest in cinematic fantasy storytelling has steadily reached a fevered pitch and with the game D&D itself seeing a tremendous resurgence, this the perfect time for a Dungeons & Dragons movie or series that puts acting and story first. Like comic books before them, D&D the role-playing game is filled with stories, art, characters and world building that have been largerly left unused by television or film...The game has had impact on so many of the writers, actors, directors and show-runners making television and film today that is might not be a matter of if, but when.

Will Joe Manganiello pull off a film that does D&D justice? A confluence of events -- the rise of social gaming, nostalgia for D&D, and the increasing accessibility of the D&D brand thanks to live streaming -- might be the perfect time for him to pull it off.

 

[DM Howard]

You realize that even the gold level sales on DrivetThruRPG would be considered as a complete and utter failure by either TSR or WotC right? Anything under about 10000 sales isn't even worth attempting for a company that size. There's a reason that WotC leaves that for other people to do.

And, really? Many supplements are a perfectly viable business strategy for other companies? Even Paizo puts out a fraction of what TSR was producing per year. And no one else comes even close. Heck, most games that aren't D&D see what, 2 maybe 3 supplements per year?

Right, economies of scale apply to sales versus business size as easily as to production, however, I think Rygar's point is that TSR produced too much of each product rather than too much product overall.

 

[Shasarak]

This argument comes up fairly often in one form or another, there are two things that happened in the past.

1. TSR made a lot of supplements/settings.
2. TSR went bankrupt.

People continuously point at #1 as the cause of #2, but I have yet to see any evidence to support that conclusion.

I agree. From what I have seen they inevitably forget to mention other suspects like Dragon Dice, returned Novels, Spell Fire cards or of course She-who-may-not-be-named.

 

[shoak1]

Umm, you realize that at the tail end of 2e, TSR was banging out tons of supplements. And they went out of business.

v

Just because a lack of supplements might be a good indicator of 5e not being as successful as some might think, it doesn't mean the opposite is true always. Bad business choices kill businesses weak and strong all the time. So while little product likely means you suck, lots of product doesn't mean you DON'T suck lol....its just a prerequisite to be ABLE to not suck.....

And in pure sales terms, I wouldn't be surprised to see 5e selling more total books/year (as in add together all sales per year) than any other edition than possibly 1st for the age of the edition.

uhhhhmmm....aren't there like 3 billion more people on the planet then there was then? Avatar had four times as much sales as Star Wars lol.....but Star Wars dominated an era and Avatar was a blip on the radar.....

As was previously mentioned: I DON'T see the game being played at the game stores and cons like 3/3.5 was or even 4e
As was previously mentioned: I DON'T see many products, magazines, novels, action figures or other branded stuff the way 3/3.5 had

5e is a sad echo of the dominance D and D had, really from 1e all the way into 3.5....it was a defining part of gaming for soooooo long.
____________________________________________________________________________

 

[shoak1]

Just because a lack of supplements might be a good indicator of 5e not being as successful as some might think, it doesn't mean the opposite is true always. Bad business choices kill businesses weak and strong all the time. So while little product likely means you suck, lots of product doesn't mean you DON'T suck lol....its just a prerequisite to be ABLE to not suck.....

uhhhhmmm....aren't there like 3 billion more people on the planet then there was then? Avatar had four times as much sales as Star Wars lol.....but Star Wars dominated an era and Avatar was a blip on the radar.....

As was previously mentioned: I DON'T see the game being played at the game stores and cons like 3/3.5 was or even 4e
As was previously mentioned: I DON'T see many products, magazines, novels, action figures or other branded stuff the way 3/3.5 had

5e is a sad echo of the dominance D and D had, really from 1e all the way into 3.5....it was a defining part of gaming for soooooo long.
____________________________________________________________________________

[Steve clears his throat and preps his Old Man voice]

Back when I was a boy, we didn't have none of this new-fangled iPuds, Titter, Faceplant, U-Tube, or even dem' fancy thinkin' boxes ya'all call "computers." In MY day, if we wanted to have fun we either rode our bikes, read a book, or played games....

And back in THOSE days, D and D was the BIG Fish in the Game Pond - everyone in my home town of Americaburg who liked water came to see him. Nobody - and I mean NOBODY - had EVER seen a Fish THAT big, and everyone was talking about him, even dem's who thoughts he was evil (claimed he was Satanic as I recall....). Anyone who liked water at all came to THIS Pond and saw THIS Fish. It was somethin' else, I tell ya......[nostalgically shakes head]

Fast forward 35 years, and a whole new world has grown up all around that little Pond and our Big Fish. Sure, the Pond is deeper and wider than it used to be, and our old Fish has grown a bit larger around the waist, and heck - maybe even there's a few more people that come to the Pond than there used to be....

But now lakes and seas and huuuuuge fish are everywhere to be seen. The big attractions today are the the Dinosaur Fish down by New Lake, and the Killer Whale down at the Wharf, and a hundred other Fish, some with names I can't even pronounce. I even hear rumors of an ocean that's home to some monstrous sea creature called "Megaladon"......

Some of my old buddies still come down with me to the Pond each day, talking about the good old days, and we still like seeing our Big Fish. There's a bit of a buzz in the village these days. Some fancy suits came into town couple years back and bought up the old Motel 4e, tore it down, then built some fancy new hotel on top of it called "5e." Some of dem folk down at the village is real excited about it (it don't quite look finished if you ask me). They sayin' its gonna be some kinda "Golden Age" for our Big Fish. But no sir [shakes head and clears his throat almost violently] - I don't think so. "I've seen the Golden Age," I tell em - "And this ain't it !!!""" [Old Man Steve chuckles a bit too excitedly and loudly]. No sirrree Bob - Hotel 5e ain't no Golden Age for our Big Fish - in fact, it aint nuttin more than a sad half-finished reminder of his Golden Years........
[Old Man Steve pauses thoughtfully as if to begin some new contemplation, but then abruptly nods off and begins snoaring profusely]

 

[Imaro]

v

Just because a lack of supplements might be a good indicator of 5e not being as successful as some might think, it doesn't mean the opposite is true always. Bad business choices kill businesses weak and strong all the time. So while little product likely means you suck, lots of product doesn't mean you DON'T suck lol....its just a prerequisite to be ABLE to not suck.....

Wait...what?? How is figuring a lack of supplements is a "good" indicator of 5e not being as successful as some might think have any more merit than the opposite?

uhhhhmmm....aren't there like 3 billion more people on the planet then there was then? Avatar had four times as much sales as Star Wars lol.....but Star Wars dominated an era and Avatar was a blip on the radar.....

Does that include merchandise, spin offs, licensing, etc? Because if not you're really selling Star Wars short, aren't you?

As was previously mentioned: I DON'T see the game being played at the game stores and cons like 3/3.5 was or even 4e
As was previously mentioned: I DON'T see many products, magazines, novels, action figures or other branded stuff the way 3/3.5 had

3.5 had action figures? Link please? Also are you saying that D&D during the 5e era doesn't have all of these things (well except action figures)? Or are you claiming you just haven't seen them? That might have something to do with your apparent disdain for the game... perhaps you're less inclined to actually go looking for them...

5e is a sad echo of the dominance D and D had, really from 1e all the way into 3.5....it was a defining part of gaming for soooooo long.
____________________________________________________________________________

Lol... yeah because that ended with 5e...

 

[Imaro]

[Steve clears his throat and preps his Old Man voice]

Back when I was a boy, we didn't have none of this new-fangled iPuds, Titter, Faceplant, U-Tube, or even dem' fancy thinkin' boxes ya'all call "computers." In MY day, if we wanted to have fun we either rode our bikes, read a book, or played games....

And back in THOSE days, D and D was the BIG Fish in the Game Pond - everyone in my home town of Americaburg who liked water came to see him. Nobody - and I mean NOBODY - had EVER seen a Fish THAT big, and everyone was talking about him, even dem's who thoughts he was evil (claimed he was Satanic as I recall....). Anyone who liked water at all came to THIS Pond and saw THIS Fish. It was somethin' else, I tell ya......[nostalgically shakes head]

Fast forward 35 years, and a whole new world has grown up all around that little Pond and our Big Fish. Sure, the Pond is deeper and wider than it used to be, and our old Fish has grown a bit larger around the waist, and heck - maybe even there's a few more people that come to the Pond than there used to be....

But now lakes and seas and huuuuuge fish are everywhere to be seen. The big attractions today are the the Dinosaur Fish down by New Lake, and the Killer Whale down at the Wharf, and a hundred other Fish, some with names I can't even pronounce. I even hear rumors of an ocean that's home to some monstrous sea creature called "Megaladon"......

Some of my old buddies still come down with me to the Pond each day, talking about the good old days, and we still like seeing our Big Fish. There's a bit of a buzz in the village these days. Some fancy suits came into town couple years back and bought up the old Motel 4e, tore it down, then built some fancy new hotel on top of it called "5e." Some of dem folk down at the village is real excited about it (it don't quite look finished if you ask me). They sayin' its gonna be some kinda "Golden Age" for our Big Fish. But no sir [shakes head and clears his throat almost violently] - I don't think so. "I've seen the Golden Age," I tell em - "And this ain't it !!!""" [Old Man Steve chuckles a bit too excitedly and loudly]. No sirrree Bob - Hotel 5e ain't no Golden Age for our Big Fish - in fact, it aint nuttin more than a sad half-finished reminder of his Golden Years........
[Old Man Steve pauses thoughtfully as if to begin some new contemplation, but then abruptly nods off and begins snoaring profusely]

I'm sorry maybe I'm not understanding the parallels being drawn... but what rpg's are the other, now bigger fish in this scenario?

 

[shoak1]

I'm sorry maybe I'm not understanding the parallels being drawn... but what rpg's are the other, now bigger fish in this scenario?

The pond is rpgs....the other bodies of water are other gaming genres....d and d still dominates rpgs, and both D and D and rpg gaming have grown a little bigger....but both have failed to adapt to modern gamers, who are shifting their attention to other genres....rpging is now a small niche....

MMORPGs, console gaming , ameritrash/eurogaming are kicking D and D's #$@$#....so congratz on selling more 5e stuff than 3.5 stuff 30 years ago lol - but 5e's market share of gaming is minuscule compared to what it was

=no Golden Age

 

[Hussar]

Umm. What? Do you honestly think that DND ever dominated games overall? Seriously? Monopoly has outsold DND forever. Rpg gaming has Always been a tiny pond.

Good grief, DND at its fad heights might have equalled about a month of Atari sales of the time.

 

[Shasarak]

Good grief, DND at its fad heights might have equalled about a month of Atari sales of the time.

Speaking of companies that went bankrupt...

 

[shoak1]

Umm. What? Do you honestly think that DND ever dominated games overall? Seriously? Monopoly has outsold DND forever. Rpg gaming has Always been a tiny pond.

Good grief, DND at its fad heights might have equalled about a month of Atari sales of the time.

sigh......no lol....not all games....just geek games.....stuff played at the game cons......

Im guessing you guys didnt start playing d and d in the seventies like me since you seem to be having a hard time understanding what it was like ...........whatever