Is D&D Entering a New Golden Age?

Sales of the hobby game market are on the rise, with tabletop role-playing games increasing along with other tabletop games. With a new Wizards of the Coast CEO in place who values Dungeons & Dragons as much as Magic: The Gathering and a movie on the horizon, we're starting to see signs that D&D is doing very well indeed.

Picture courtesy of Unsplash.​

The Hobby Market is Doing Well​

ICv2 reported that the hobby market is hitting eye-popping numbers:

Sales of hobby games in the U.S. and Canada topped $1.4 billion in 2016, reaching $1.44 billion, according to a new estimate compiled by ICv2 and reported in Internal Correspondence #92. That’s a 21% total growth rate over 2015, with rates of change ranging from 17% for the slowest-growing category to 29% for the fastest-growing. Growth rates were pulled higher by more rapid growth of hobby games in the mass channel, especially in collectible, board, and card & dice games.

Of those categories, collectible games grew the most, followed by hobby board games and role-playing games. Role-playing games increased the most, by 29%, from $35 million to $45 million. Of the top five RPGs, Dungeons & Dragons Fifth Edition and Pathfinder retained their first and second position, respectively.

Ancillary RPG markets are doing well too, like non-collectible miniatures. Non-collectible miniature sales were up from $175 million to $205 million, a 17% increase. Star Wars X-Wing led the charge, followed by Warhammer 40K and D&D's Nolzur's Marvels Minis, high-quality unpainted miniatures produced by Wizkids.

Unsurprisingly, Hasbro is benefiting from this bump.

Hasbro's Games Are Doing Well​

Hasbro topped $5 billion in revenue for the first time:

Net revenues for the full-year 2016 increased 13% to $5.02 billion versus $4.45 billion in 2015. Excluding a negative $61.0 million impact from foreign exchange, 2016 revenues increased 14%. As reported net earnings for the full-year 2016 increased 22% to $551.4 million, or $4.34 per diluted share, compared to $451.8 million, or $3.57 per diluted share in 2015. Adjusted net earnings for the full-year 2016 were $566.1 million, or $4.46 per diluted share. Adjusted 2016 earnings exclude a pre-tax $32.9 million, or $0.12 per diluted share, non-cash fourth quarter goodwill impairment charge related to Backflip Studios. Adjusted full-year 2016 net earnings compares to 2015 adjusted net earnings of $445.0 million, or $3.51 per diluted share, which exclude a pre-tax gain of $9.6 million from the sale of the Company's manufacturing operations in East Longmeadow, MA and Waterford, Ireland.

Hasbro gaming increased by 23%, reflecting the hobby games market trends:

Hasbro's total gaming category, including all gaming revenue, most notably MAGIC: THE GATHERING and MONOPOLY, totaled $518.7 million for the fourth quarter 2016, up 11%, and $1,387.1 million, up 9%, for the full year 2016. Hasbro believes its gaming portfolio is a competitive differentiator and views it in its entirety.

Note that last sentence. Hasbro experienced a decline in Magic: The Gathering sales, and it's likely the leadership team was eager to share other good news in its gaming segment. That would turn out to be beneficial for D&D.

D&D is Doing Well​

Hasbro CEO Brian Goldner did something unusual -- he mentioned Dungeons & Dragons on an investor call. For years, D&D has been overshadowed by Magic: The Gathering's success when Hasbro reported out Wizards of the Coast's wins to investors. The shout-out alone on the Q1 investor call says something about D&D's success:

I also am very happy to see very strong growth for brands like DUNGEONS & DRAGONS and Duel Masters. So, the team at (46:34) has gone to a new storytelling modality for MAGIC and, obviously, impacted the quarter. But they've also done some very good work around DUNGEONS and storytelling and in engagement with that audience. So overall, I would expect that our face-to-face gaming business will continue to perform at a high level and the team's done an absolutely stellar job at both the social media oriented games, as well as some more of our classic games.

Hasbro seems to have a renewed interest in what they term "face-to-face" and "social" games, thanks to its launch of the Hasbro Gaming Crate that focuses on getting people to play together -- a staple of D&D. This is of course Wizards of the Coast's specialty. Investors are noticing.

Jim Cramer on Mad Money led the segment with an old D&D commercial and mentioned the RPG along with Star Wars as brands that allow Hasbro to "bring imagination to life." Cramer interviewed Goldner, who had some nice things to say about D&D:

...and our games business, a raft of great games. Dungeons & Dragons up 50%, Monopoly was of course up, and then of course Magic: The Gathering was up. So great strength in games, 6% growth, 20% growth in the gaming category overall...both Magic: The Gathering and Dungeons & Dragons are on our Twitch programming... Dungeons & Dragons did a very special Twitch channel that they launched with the fans. We've had millions of views on Twitch around Dungeons & Dragons. We're seeing the brand really in resurgence.

So what does this mean for the future of D&D?

The Future of D&D​

D&D's demographics have shifted, according to the Daily News, with more female and older players:

While Wizards of the Coast, which manages the D&D franchise, won't share sales figures, reps tell the Daily News that Millennials (ages 25 to 34) presently make up the largest group of D&D players, followed closely by those aged 35 to 44 and 18 to 24 — and up to 30% of these gamers are girls.

The success of Pathfinder, the Old School Renaissance, mainstream fantasy media, and the nostalgia of gamer kids reaching the 35 to 44 age range in creative fields like movies and television is likely a major factor in the renewed interest in D&D. Todd Kenreck explains on Forbes:

The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King won 11 Oscars in 2004. 16 million people watched the premiere of season 7 of Game of Thrones this year. A serious interest in cinematic fantasy storytelling has steadily reached a fevered pitch and with the game D&D itself seeing a tremendous resurgence, this the perfect time for a Dungeons & Dragons movie or series that puts acting and story first. Like comic books before them, D&D the role-playing game is filled with stories, art, characters and world building that have been largerly left unused by television or film...The game has had impact on so many of the writers, actors, directors and show-runners making television and film today that is might not be a matter of if, but when.

Will Joe Manganiello pull off a film that does D&D justice? A confluence of events -- the rise of social gaming, nostalgia for D&D, and the increasing accessibility of the D&D brand thanks to live streaming -- might be the perfect time for him to pull it off.

 

[Morrus]

Im guessing you guys didnt start playing d and d in the seventies like me since you seem to be having a hard time understanding what it was like ...........whatever

You're about average age for these forums.

 

[Imaro]

The pond is rpgs....the other bodies of water are other gaming genres....d and d still dominates rpgs, and both D and D and rpg gaming have grown a little bigger....but both have failed to adapt to modern gamers, who are shifting their attention to other genres....rpging is now a small niche....

rpg'ing was always a small niche. It has always sold less than boardgames, ccg's, videogames, etc. That's not a 5th edition thing that's a D&D thing. As for not adopting to modern gamers... well I'm not sure what that means exactly. D&D is, by all accountes (except maybe your personal anecdotes), doing exceedingly well right now so unless you're claiming those sales and games being played, and twitter streams being watched are all older gamers (and somehow they've increased their numbers) then your claim seems to fall flat.

MMORPGs, console gaming , ameritrash/eurogaming are kicking D and D's #$@$#....so congratz on selling more 5e stuff than 3.5 stuff 30 years ago lol - but 5e's market share of gaming is minuscule compared to what it was

MMOrpg's, console gaming and boardgames always have... that's a D&D thing not a 5th edition thing... could you provide some actual years and numbers because I'm really curious to see when exactly D&D had a greater marketshare than any of the above... and I'll admit I didn't start gaming until the late 80's so I may have missed something but this narrative just doesn't seem to make sense.

=no Golden Age

So wait... are you saying D&D never had a golden age (because as far as I know it's never had more marketshare then the games you've listed earlier)? Or maybe you're definition of Golden Age is different from the one most of us are using... could you explain?

 

[Rygar]

You realize that even the gold level sales on DrivetThruRPG would be considered as a complete and utter failure by either TSR or WotC right? Anything under about 10000 sales isn't even worth attempting for a company that size. There's a reason that WotC leaves that for other people to do.

And, really? Many supplements are a perfectly viable business strategy for other companies? Even Paizo puts out a fraction of what TSR was producing per year. And no one else comes even close. Heck, most games that aren't D&D see what, 2 maybe 3 supplements per year?

Then I'd argue that WOTC deserves the very likely failure it has coming in the not too distant future.

This is a fairly obvious business strategy here. They have a product line they want to sell, Dungeons and Dragons. The metrics they should be interested in are total customer base size and total revenue for the product line, and whatever gets those two numbers to be bigger is something worth attempting for a company no matter its size. If you can make money selling 5,000 units each of a couple dozen products then make the money, invest those customers, and play the long game of growing your market. It doesn't matter if "Bob's cavern of doom" only contributed $10k to the total revenue if the combined revenue was $10 million, in the end the only thing that matters is that the company made $10 million.

This is the offline micro-transaction strategy really, no one in EA/Ubisoft/Bethesda/Activision is sitting in an office saying "Yeah, the pink gun decal only sold 5,000 units, lets stop making those" they're saying "We made $10 million in digital revenue this year".

That's the difference between companies that are succeeding (Video games) and companies that are setting themselves up for failure (WOTC), companies succeed because they take opportunities to make money wherever possible. Lots of little sales, a few big sales, in the end no one cares so long as they both add up to a big number. Right now WOTC is entirely dependent on Magic the Gathering continuing to be popular, D&D could have been their safety net, but they aren't even trying.

MMOrpg's, console gaming and boardgames always have... that's a D&D thing not a 5th edition thing... could you provide some actual years and numbers because I'm really curious to see when exactly D&D had a greater marketshare than any of the above... and I'll admit I didn't start gaming until the late 80's so I may have missed something but this narrative just doesn't seem to make sense.

Not to sound snarky, but I believe all the way up to 2002-ish MMO's were a fraction of D&D. MUDS were insignificant in size in the 80's, Neverwinter Nights on AOL topped out at 115k players which is 1/3 of the number of 3rd edition PHB's sold in the first month IIRC, and Everquest topped out at 450,000 in 2003 which *may* have been enough to exceed D&D at the time.

 

[Imaro]

Not to sound snarky, but I believe all the way up to 2002-ish MMO's were a fraction of D&D. MUDS were insignificant in size in the 80's, Neverwinter Nights on AOL topped out at 115k players which is 1/3 of the number of 3rd edition PHB's sold in the first month IIRC, and Everquest topped out at 450,000 in 2003 which *may* have been enough to exceed D&D at the time.

Not to sound snarky either but he's claiming this is a 5e thing... 5e wasn't out in 2002-ish... so I'm not sure how what you're posting strengthens his argument. If anything you're showing it's a D&D thing and the decline and loss started with earlier editions... so it's not a 5e specific thing. I also noticed you didn't address videogames (of which MMO's are a subset) or any of the other types of games which D&D was supposed to have a greater marketshare until 5e...


EDIT 1: Also I think lower marketshare of MMOrpg's before 2002-ish had more to do with the pricing structure of interent access, especially by AOL in the early 90's which was by the minute... than the preference for the games themselves.

 

[Imaro]

Then I'd argue that WOTC deserves the very likely failure it has coming in the not too distant future.

Well it's already out-lasted 4e... an edition that had a ton more material produced in a shorter time... and it's well on it's way to outlasting 3e and 3.5... so I'm not sure why you'd think failure is looming in the not to distant future? Again from the indicators we have access to the game seems to be growing as opposed to declining at this point... do you have anything outside conjecture that points to the opposite?

This is a fairly obvious business strategy here. They have a product line they want to sell, Dungeons and Dragons. The metrics they should be interested in are total customer base size and total revenue for the product line, and whatever gets those two numbers to be bigger is something worth attempting for a company no matter its size. If you can make money selling 5,000 units each of a couple dozen products then make the money, invest those customers, and play the long game of growing your market. It doesn't matter if "Bob's cavern of doom" only contributed $10k to the total revenue if the combined revenue was $10 million, in the end the only thing that matters is that the company made $10 million.

It's so simple how does anyone fail when starting a business...total customer base size and revenue for the product line... That's all we should be looking at...wait, but...

If the cost to make and/or distribute your product are greater than your profits on said products... you might have a great customer base... great revenue stream and not enough profits to eat... but yeah it's pretty simple... I guess, except when it isn't.

This is the offline micro-transaction strategy really, no one in EA/Ubisoft/Bethesda/Activision is sitting in an office saying "Yeah, the pink gun decal only sold 5,000 units, lets stop making those" they're saying "We made $10 million in digital revenue this year".

Lol... you realize that decal is only "made once" and probably hosted on the same server as everything else they sell in-game right? So there are no ongoing or incurring costs to continue to make it... only a one time sunk cost. This doesn't line up to books or physical goods in general.

That's the difference between companies that are succeeding (Video games) and companies that are setting themselves up for failure (WOTC), companies succeed because they take opportunities to make money wherever possible. Lots of little sales, a few big sales, in the end no one cares so long as they both add up to a big number. Right now WOTC is entirely dependent on Magic the Gathering continuing to be popular, D&D could have been their safety net, but they aren't even trying.

No it would seem the difference is they are selling two different products with differing models for profit (not just revenue).

 

[shoak1]

Not to sound snarky either but he's claiming this is a 5e thing... 5e wasn't out in 2002-ish... so I'm not sure how what you're posting strengthens his argument. If anything you're showing it's a D&D thing and the decline and loss started with earlier editions... so it's not a 5e specific thing. I also noticed you didn't address videogames (of which MMO's are a subset) or any of the other types of games which D&D was supposed to have a greater marketshare until 5e...


EDIT 1: Also I think lower marketshare of MMOrpg's before 2002-ish had more to do with the pricing structure of interent access, especially by AOL in the early 90's which was by the minute... than the preference for the games themselves.

Yes the decline started earlier. Gaming preferences have changed in the last few decades. Gamists rule now (3 words: World of Warcraft), and 4e was an attempt to reach out beyond the little rpg niche base. It was a great strategy, one that if successful would ensure D and D's survival (in modified form) into the future. But the hardcore rpg D and D base threw a hissy-fit and revolted. Bye Bye 4e. 5e, despite its alleged status as "The Game for Everyone," is a throwback and not at all an attempt to reach out to a wider base. Because of that, D and D will be dying a slow death. Comparing flat numbers across decades and declaring "record sales" doesn't change that. Its all about market share.

 

[Imaro]

Yes the decline started earlier. Gaming preferences have changed in the last few decades. Gamists rule now (3 words: World of Warcraft), and 4e was an attempt to reach out beyond the little rpg niche base. It was a great strategy, one that if successful would ensure D and D's survival (in modified form) into the future. But the hardcore rpg D and D base threw a hissy-fit and revolted. Bye Bye 4e. 5e, despite its alleged status as "The Game for Everyone," is a throwback and not at all an attempt to reach out to a wider base. Because of that, D and D will be dying a slow death. Comparing flat numbers across decades and declaring "record sales" doesn't change that. Its all about market share.

Lol... If 4e was the way of the future then it should have been able to grab a large enough market share from those WoW players it targeted to make up for those old timers it lost and then some. Guess what... it didn't. It slowly declined and lost marketshare... the opposite of what we are seeing with 5e.

Edit: Also I'd like to point out that WoW, when it decided to no longer reveal subscription numbers last year, was at its lowest point since 2005... it's actually declining and loosing that oh so precious marketshare.

 

[shoak1]

Lol... If 4e was the way of the future then it should have been able to grab a large enough market share from those WoW players it targeted to make up for those old timers it lost and then some. Guess what... it didn't. It slowly declined and lost marketshare... the opposite of what we are seeing with 5e.

Edit: Also I'd like to point out that WoW, when it decided to no longer reveal subscription numbers last year, was at its lowest point since 2005... it's actually declining and loosing that oh so precious marketshare.

What????? Are you seriously saying mmorpgs, power gaming, gamist ideals, etc are not dominant? Dude, OF COURSE WoW is not BMOC in 2017 lol - but its not because of D and D bro, its from competition from other peeps attracting the Gamists

Seriously, I dont know why I bother..........

 

[TheDiceMustRoll]

It's really strange how a system that's selling well and has managed to plop itself right back into your cultural conversation is now being considered a failure. WotC could self 50 million PHBs tomorrow and you guys would be going "UHH THAT'S ONLY FIVE PERCENT OF THE WORLD'S POPULATION, CHECKMATE."

I mean holy heck guys, what's it gonna take?

 

[darjr]

The PHB is back up to 45 out of all books sold on Amazon. After being in the 60s for a while.