another rpg industry doomsday article (merged: all 3 "Mishler Rant" threads)

[ggroy]

Exactly! Makes you really wonder where he gets some of the assumptions his argument relies on from. I hear you can get those sorts of rates in main stream magazine article writing.

Maybe he's considering the "even poor fiction" earning $1.00 per word market to be the Oprah's Book Club market. I'd consider that style of 'misery fiction pretending to be deep and thoughtful' market that pays very well for poor fiction.

Wonder how many bucks per word somebody like a Stephen King, John Grisham, or Dan Brown would make for writing.
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[thecasualoblivion]

The RPG industry has some unusual competition most things don't have to deal with:

1. A newly published book must compete against the secondary market for older books. RPG players tend to be the collecting sort who never throw anything away, and older RPG books are fairly easy to find at a discount(for the most part), particularly for people who have heard of eBay.

2. A newly published book must compete with doing it yourself. This is particularly true of system expansions, campaign settings, and adventures.

3. A newly published book must compete against hobbyist publishers who produce more for the love of the game than making money.

 

[Jack99]

Wonder how many bucks per word somebody like a Stephen King, John Grisham, or Dan Brown would make for writing.
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He aint one of those you mention, but still a writer. J.J Abrams made a $60 million deal with Warner Bros. TV and Paramount Pictures in 2006 for his writing. Not too shaby, no matter the amount of words

 

[GMSkarka]

At this point, it may be beating a dead horse to continue to point out errors within the original blog post -- but here's another:


"Now, if he goes with print on demand, he has no worries about inventory (well, mostly… even with print-on-demand you need to keep a little inventory, as gamers these days do not go for the four to six week ship time that would be required if you did true print-on-demand). However, print on demand is more expensive per unit, with little or no discount for more units, so your gross margin per unit is even less… which means you still have to cut the costs of your other inputs.

And don’t get me started on Lulu, where the printing cost per unit is astronomical!"


Again, it appears that he has no idea of the current facts of the market.

The cost per unit at Lulu is quite high -- he's right about that. Far too high for use within traditional distribution, where the publisher is only going to see 35-40% of the MSRP. For direct-to-consumer, though, it's just fine -- and makes you more than you'd see through traditional distribution.

But, aside from that issue:

"Four to six weeks ship time that would be required"??? Buh? To use Lulu as an example -- production takes 2 to 5 business days, with shipping occuring immediately afterward. Even if you take the slowest shipping option available, you'd see your book in two weeks, not four to six. And most shipping methods would have it to you within a week to a week and half at most.

"Little or no discount for more units" -- also not true. Again, using Lulu as an example -- discounts start at 25 copies for softcover, and 10 copies for hardcover. Just as an example (from my own records) -- on a 192 page softcover supplement, a 25 copy order gives me a 25% discount, 100 copies gives me a 30% discount, 250 copies a 41% discount, and even more from there.

So, it's more than evident that he has no real understanding of the current state of print-on-demand. The things he's complaining about haven't really been a factor for 2 to 3 years or more.

 

[frankthedm]

If this is true we all get to play D&D (or Gamma World) for real wielding swords made from old car parts and in a world where treasure = food/water.

I can't help but be reminded of last Sunday's Dilbert comic...

 

[ggroy]

The RPG industry has some unusual competition most things don't have to deal with:

1. A newly published book must compete against the secondary market for older books.

How much is this different than, say, the college/university textbook business (especially for freshman year textbooks)? Within a few weeks after the release of a new textbook, the secondary market for used copies is already in effect. After awhile, the secondary market for used copies starts to "cannibalize" the market for new copies. These days it can be as soon as a year or so after the release date. It doesn't help that university bookstores are also in the business of selling used textbooks.

To combat this problem, typically what the textbook publishers do is release a new edition every few years, to destroy the secondary market for the previous editions. These days for some very popular freshman college/university textbooks, new editions are pumped out as fast as every 3 years.

 

[thecasualoblivion]

How much is this different than, say, the college/university textbook business (especially for freshman year textbooks)? Within a few weeks after the release of a new textbook, the secondary market for used copies is already in effect. After awhile, the secondary market for used copies starts to "cannibalize" the market for new copies. These days it can be as soon as a year or so after the release date. It doesn't help that university bookstores are also in the business of selling used textbooks.

To combat this problem, typically what the textbook publishers do is release a new edition every few years, to destroy the secondary market for the previous editions. These days for some very popular freshman college/university textbooks, new editions are pumped out as fast as every 3 years.

The difference is that your college class might require you to use the new edition, while there is no such requirement in the RPG world outside of peer pressure from those you game with.

I don't think the RPG market cannibalizes the market for new copies to the extent that it happens with college textbooks, but I do think the availbility and price of older books does limit what you can charge for a new book. I think one of the reasons retro-clones have a hard time establishing themselves is that you can pick up the core books for AD&D 1E or 2E for $10-15 in good shape.

 

[frankthedm]

How much is this different than, say, the college/university textbook business (especially for freshman year textbooks)?

Because the Teacher is supplied the the Teacher's Book through the school since the School probably gets a kickback on the new books. The student does not get the chance to say to the teacher, do we need to use a new edition?

 

[stuart]

Because the Teacher is supplied the the Teacher's Book through the school since the School probably gets a kickback on the new books. The student does not get the chance to say to the teacher, do we need to use a new edition?

If it's anything like the University I'm at the school doesn't get a kickback on the books. I get to select the course textbook for my classes and the department secretary lets the bookstore know what they should order for the students to buy. The students don't *need* to buy the textbooks there though, and they can get them from another store, 2nd hand, Amazon, Ebay, etc.

Quite often the publishers/distributors will send me a copy of their textbooks to evaluate hoping that I'll pick their book for the textbook for my class.

Maybe it's different for other schools/profs... but my experience is that there's no kickback to the school / teacher on new books.

 

[Invisible Stalker]

From the article [Note: I maintain that we are entering an economic dislocation the likes of which has not been seen since the Roman Crisis of the Third Century.]


And he's worrying about RPGs?

I'm reminded of the old George Carlin joke, "it seems the weather radar has picked up a flock of Russian ICBMs, so I wouldn't worry about the thundershowers."