A 4th-level commoner would probably beat a 1st-level fighter if you're using WBL. Using the standard 25 point buy (which is ridiculously weak but whatevs)...
Two things:
1) 25-points is the standard value for
PCs. NPCs use a 15-point spread, with the 'standard array' being either 11/11/11/10/10/10 or 13/12/11/10/9/8.
2) Yes, if you use the WBL to kit the Commoner out for adventuring, he would indeed beat the Fighter. The problem with that logic is that the Commoner
shouldn't be equipped for adventuring
because he's not an adventurer. Most of the equipment he gets by virtue of WBL is tied up in his farm equipment, his crop, the pigs he keeps to slaughter in the winter, or whatever. A higher-level Commoner (farmer) has greater wealth by virtue of running a bigger and more successful farm.
Your average blacksmith is a genius and smarter than about 80% of the people around him? And he makes bows? Why? Traps? Why?
And a blacksmith with a 16 Int and a 12 Strength and a Con PENALTY? Really? This is believable?
Nitpick - the example given wasn't an "average blacksmith". Perhaps more to the point, though - his stats have been adjusted by virtue of aging effects, hence the higher-than-expected Int and lower-than-expected Con.
That's not the example blacksmith I'd build, and neither is it really a good example of a "royal blacksmith" according to the demographics tables of the DMG (which are insane, as I've said previously). But I don't think that those stats
in and of themselves are too outrageous.
Your average blacksmith is a level 1 commoner with Blacksmithing. This guy is way, way beyond average. Heck, he's already got elite stats which takes him, by RAW, well above average. Remember, average people have 10's across the board.
I'm going to disagree here, as well. The DMG demographics tables would seem to give even the smallest villages a smattering of low-level Experts, and the blacksmith is one of the most likely professions to be represented. So, a 1st level Expert. And, likewise, I disagree with the "10's across the board" - as someone who works with fire and metal all day, the blacksmith is very likely to have both Str and Con slightly above the average.
My take on a typical blacksmith:
Duncan, the blacksmith
1st level Expert
Str 12, Dex 10, Con 12, Int 10, Wis 10, Cha 9
Skills: Appraise +4, Craft (smith*), Gather Information +3, Handle Animal +3, Knowledge (local) +4, Listen +4, Spot +4
Feats: Martial Weapon Proficiency (hammer), Skill Focus (craft-smith), Weapon Prof (simple), Armour Prof (light)
Hit Points: 7 **
AC: 12 (treat smith's apron as leather armour)
Fort +1, Ref +0, Will +2
Attack: Hammer +1 melee, 1d6+1 damage
* I'm assuming this is one skill. If general blacksmithing, armoursmith, and weaponsmith are separate skills, he should take each of these individually, in preference to Appraise and Knowledge.
** I've given him max for 1st level, because that's what I did with my other sample NPCs. If not maxing out that first die (which, to be fair, is probably right) drop this to 5.
I think that's a reasonable smith. It's obviously not the only possible way to build that character (and it's still way more effort than it is really worth), but it does the job and feels about right. YMMV, of course.