D&D Movie/TV D&D Movie Hit or Flop?

[bedir than]

I think it is better to separate the movie performance (roughly needs twice the cost plus marketing to cover expenses but there are all sorts of caveats to that metric)

It's weird that this metric keeps shifting. The people insisting on FLOP are like

• It has to be two-point-five times production costs
• it has to be double production costs
• it has to be double production plus marketing
• it has to be two-point-five production plus marketing

And whatever is necessary to make the movie seem the worse is what they'll reference on a given day.

Just like "The international split isn't good enough" became "international doesn't matter at all"

It's not doing well enough to be a hit. That's certain.

Considering the merch, and that's not just games, that multi-hundred dollar snowboards, Lay's potato chips paying Paramount and Hasbro for potato chips with the movie on it, $35 popcorn tubs, etc.

Then there's the general advertising success, which is undoubtable.

 

[Myrdin Potter]

It's weird that this metric keeps shifting. The people insisting on FLOP are like

• It has to be two-point-five times production costs
• it has to be double production costs
• it has to be double production plus marketing
• it has to be two-point-five production plus marketing

And whatever is necessary to make the movie seem the worse is what they'll reference on a given day.

Just like "The international split isn't good enough" became "international doesn't matter at all"

It's not doing well enough to be a hit. That's certain.

Considering the merch, and that's not just games, that multi-hundred dollar snowboards, Lay's potato chips paying Paramount and Hasbro for potato chips with the movie on it, $35 popcorn tubs, etc.

Then there's the general advertising success, which is undoubtable.

To be honest, I am close to blocking you. You seem seem desperate to prove that the movie on standard metrics is successful when it is not.

2 x the cost (production cost plus marketing) has been the standard for a very long time. It comes from the theaters keeping 50% of the gross.

There is no way they will sell enough popcorn tubs and such to make up for the lack of butts in the seats. It is just not happening.

Not sure why you keep trying to argue otherwise but you are completely fake sounding and unconvincing to me.

On standard movie metrics I think this is not a flop of the ages (Ishtar, John Carter etc.) but it is certainly and beyond a doubt not a hit and most probably not a success.

I own Hasbro stock so the chickens will come home to roost in an earnings release soon.

 

[mamba]

Nah not a flop just not a hit. Merch sales seem to be great

The movie worldwide will probably make close to 150M at the box office, which is its cost. Obviously the theatres keep part of the money too, which is why this number usually needs to be around double the cost for the movie to make a profit, and it does not include marketing either. If you factor those two in, the movie is falling about 250M short of being a financial success (if we only consider the box office).

With D&D making about 150M a year in revenue, I have a hard time seeing merchandising making up for a large part of that gap (with VOD etc. having to fill the rest of it). So yeah, not a hit, but I am not seeing how you rule out a flop.

 

[mamba]

It's weird that this metric keeps shifting. The people insisting on FLOP are like

• It has to be two-point-five times production costs
• it has to be double production costs
• it has to be double production plus marketing
• it has to be two-point-five production plus marketing

Well, so far it has not even made 1 time its cost, without marketing. This might be worth digging into once it has reached double cost + marketing, before then....

 

[bedir than]

2 x the cost (production cost plus marketing) has been the standard for a very long time. It comes from the theaters keeping 50% of the gross.

If that's the standard, then why is there drift between the FLOP shouters? Why do multiple industry magazines disagree on that number? And why has that number changed in the post-Covid era?

There is no way they will sell enough popcorn tubs and such to make up for the lack of butts in the seats. It is just not happening.

I haven't made this claim. An honest reading of my statements, this is not.

To be honest, I am close to blocking you. You seem seem desperate to prove that the movie on standard metrics is successful when it is not.

I have pointed out successes, like internationally where it went up on weekend 2. I have pointed out successes in things like licensed merch. I have pointed out the success in search amplification.

I am sorry those legitimate financial successes make you think that I should be threatened to be blocked.

 

[Myrdin Potter]

I have blocked almost no one over the years but that last post earned one.

International rollout was staggered and several new markets were added in week 2 hence the increase in box office numbers.

Search jump could have been purchased for far less money via google ad spending.

Just reach reach reach and invent some new criteria to argue that the movie is doing better than the financial results indicate.

 

[Zardnaar]

If that's the standard, then why is there drift between the FLOP shouters? Why do multiple industry magazines disagree on that number? And why has that number changed in the post-Covid era?

I haven't made this claim. An honest reading of my statements, this is not.

I have pointed out successes, like internationally where it went up on weekend 2. I have pointed out successes in things like licensed merch. I have pointed out the success in search amplification.

I am sorry those legitimate financial successes make you think that I should be threatened to be blocked.

It's because the total box office is anemic. Positive press weekend obe and slight rise in international doesn't change that.

Irs week three still hasn't made its budget let alone double it. It's only at 130 million.

Not only the box office an outright flop at this point its so far behind its basically impossible to get anywhere near its bare minimum to break even.

He'll its unlikely to hit 200 million. With these results they'll start reducing screens and probably pull it early so it's tail won't be that great either.

If it doesn't even make its budget (unlikely but possible) it's leaning more towards bomb territory let alone flop.

 

[LuisCarlos17f]

Now this seems the fifteen minutes of fame.

Maybe the audience thought it was a fantasy version of UCM, and the it has been an indirect victim of superhero movie burnout.

I have watched the movie and I can say it was fun. I would rather to think it is because Mario Bros has eclipse all the rest of the productions.

Other possibility is the rest of studios could dare to try it with their own new-brand epic fantasy+action comedy. And this indirectly would be good for D&D.

Sorry but something strange is happening. Maybe we should await when everybody has watched Mario Bros and now they wanted a different title.

 

[Zardnaar]

Kinda negative article. D&D gets a mention by name.

Why Fantasy Movies Are In A Box Office Rut - Looper

For every Lord of the Rings or Harry Potter, there are a dozen fantasy films that failed to connect with audiences -- but why is that?

www.looper.com

Fantasy genre in general not doing well recently. Lots of streaming shows but only 1-3 of them are good depending on what counts as fantasy.

 

[cbwjm]

I think one aspect of all of this is that I don't think anyone thought the Mario movie would be such a monster hit.

So many people raging against it, it's kind of fun to see how much they're raging while the movie has become one of the highest grossing animated films.