10:1 illegal downloads

[JRRNeiklot]

Even if 10:1 is a reasonable estimate, it does not equate to 10:1 lost sales. People download pdfs for a few reasons:

1: They already own a hard copy and want a searchable copy, or to print out maps, handouts, etc.

2: They want to check out the product before they buy it, like test driving a car. If the product is worthwhile, they buy it, if not, they don't, and either delete it or it sits inert on their hard drive. The only bitch the company can have here is that they can't fleece people into buying an inferior product if they can check it out before hand at their lesiure, and not just 5 minutes at the store.

3: They are completist and would like to own every product a company produces IF it's free. They would never bother buying it, but a free download? Why not?

I don't believe there's a single person out there who ACTUALLY INTENDED on buying an rpg book, but decided to download a pirated version instead. In addition to, or an evaluation copy, maybe.

If anything piracy does nothing but INCREASE sales. Player A downloads a copy, decides it's pretty neat, buys the book. Before you now it, his entire gaming group has bought the core book and several supplements - books they may have never even HEARD of had not one person downloaded an illegal copy.

Wizards just doesn't get it, they are too much inclined to blame others on their shortcomings.

Some people DO get it.

Baen Free Library

Baen Free Library

http://www.baen.com/library/palaver11.htm

The idea that WOTC did this to combat piracy is laughable.

Edit: I'm not condoning piracy, it's still illegal, but a loss of revenue, it's anything but.

 

[Nyarlathotep]

I don't buy the 10:1 number at all. I'd think the ratio would be a lot higher, more on the order of 50:1 or 100:1. Although, who knows, maybe WotC has some secret way of tracking usenet downloads....

 

[Adso]

Saw that, Steve. I was posting about what I mistakenly took it to mean, as I clearly stated, and wondered if others had mistaken it in the same way.

Care to share some numbers while you are here? And what's with the second exclusive interview over here? -

ICv2 - Wizards of the Coast CEO Greg Leeds on PDFs

Ah, I see now. Sorry about that.

No, I don't share numbers. Even if I am privy to them, I’m bound by confidentiality and the law not to share them.

The interviews? One’s exclusive to EN World, one exclusive to IvC2…I don’t know how these things work.

 

[Mark]

Ah, I see now. Sorry about that.

No, I don't share numbers. Even if I am privy to them, I’m bound by confidentiality and the law not to share them.

No problem. And rereading my reply I hope that calling you Steve is not a misnomer. My brother Steve is actually a Stephen, too, and I used the informal version reflexively.

The interviews? One’s exclusive to EN World, one exclusive to IvC2…I don’t know how these things work.

Careful how you parse language. Leeds will think you're after his job.

 

[Asmor]

There are certainly other downloads on other sites that don't publish downloads numbers, but I am not certain we factored those in, or, if we did, we probably gave it a conservative estimate...

Like I said, I think you guys lowballed it. I just think that giving any number like that at all is kind of disingenuous. It's like trying to estimate how many molecules of water there are in the galaxy based on what we know about the planet Earth.

 

[darjr]

Like I said, I think you guys lowballed it. I just think that giving any number like that at all is kind of disingenuous. It's like trying to estimate how many molecules of water there are in the galaxy based on what we know about the planet Earth.

Funny thing about this is I'm pretty sure it was a standard question I got, probably several times. Maybe not exactly that... wait... actually I do think it was exactly that.

Do you work for google or something?

On topic I think the number is probably a bit low. Especially this close to the PHB2 release. Though it does sound reasonable to what I've seen on other things.

 

[Hejdun]

... I don't believe there's a single person out there who ACTUALLY INTENDED on buying an rpg book, but decided to download a pirated version instead. In addition to, or an evaluation copy, maybe. ...

I've got a bridge to sell you...

There are a whole lot of high school/college students without a whole lot of disposable income and questionable respect for intellectual property who would disagree with you there.

I think one of the problems I saw in 3e that encouraged piracy was the tendency to have lots of books that you only ever used 1 or 2 feats from, and had no use for the rest of it. 4e has gotten a million times better about focusing the content in their products, and besides, I'd imagine that Insider is a far better option for people who want to pick and choose content from a dozen different books.

I'd agree that any estimates of what extent piracy is taking away from sales is going to be wildly inaccurate. But one point I'd like to make is that getting rid of the official pdfs isn't going to do a whole lot to stem the problem. All it takes is one guy with a scanner and a couple hours to make a pdf of a book. Granted, it won't look as nice or be searchable, but it's not clear to me that the searchability of the official pdfs is the reason piracy is an issue. I highly doubt there are that many people who would pirate a searchable pdf but not both with a non-searchable one.

 

[Shadowsong666]

So what? Even if the ratio is 10:1 in sales of pdfs online you just made the thing XXXXX:0 in future, as you will not have stopped the idiots scanning the stuff and putting it online. That is the most reasonable move i ever saw. Congrats - you just shot yourself in the foot. ^^

 

[Thasmodious]

I don't believe the 10+:1 numbers at all. I've been playing RPGs for 30 years, and I just don't believe it.

Well, with such a well reasoned, fact based analysis as this, I have no choice but to accept your conclusions. :roll eyes

 

[mach1.9pants]

There are a lot of ifs, ors, and buts regarding those numbers in the comments following that post.

And that is software, not RPGs. Comparing apples and oranges, really.

Maybe so but it is as good numbers as WotC come out with. Look at the torrents when some DnD thing comes on, heaps of leechers and seeders. However none of them (or very few) would have brought the book/legal PDF and they'll still get them from scans so the point is moot anyway.

And 10:1 or even 100:1 is better than x:0 PDF piracy does not equate to lost hardcopy sales. At all.