3E & 4E Love and Hate Polls - What does it mean?

[Mercurius]

THE STANDARD DISCLAIMER: This is NOT an attempt to bait a Flame War (although Cold War is okay with me, if it serves the purpose of the thread). I want to discuss the two polls that were started on 3E and 4E and what it means (if anything) with regards to the state and future of Dungeons & Dragons. Thanks.

First, some numbers (as of about 4pm Eastern, 11/30):

4E Approval Rating (voted Love or Like): 45.91% (219 of 477 votes)
3E Approval Rating (voted Love or Like): 59.86% (164 of 274 votes)
4E Disapproval Rating (voted Hate or Dislike): 37.73% (180 of 477)
3E Disapproval Rating (voted Hate or Dislike): 17.52% (48 of 274)
My Hat of 4E Knows No Bounds Rating (voted Hate): 22.43% (107 of 477)
My Hat of 3E Knows No Bounds Rating (voted Hate): 8.76% (24 of 274)

I will try to update these as votes keep trickling in.

Comments:
So far those are some stunning numbers, particularly the percentage of folks that actually "hate" 4E (over 22%), and the huge difference in the approval ratings (almost 60% for 3E vs. 46% for 4E). It is also interesting to note that less than 18% of voters actually dislike 3E, while more than twice that number (38%) dislike 4E.

So what does this mean? Again, we all know that EN World is not an accurate cross-section of the total D&D playing populace, but it may be relatively representative of the serious-to-hardcore D&D playing minority, which in turn buys a significant portion of the game books published.* In other words, what I am saying is that I think these polls do matter, that they mean something of value and import to not only Wizards of the Coast but to the future of Dungeons & Dragons. What it means, I don't think anyone really knows. But let's talk about it.

*Note: Let me use my gaming group as an example. It consists of eight members, I being the more serious. I own approximately 200 RPG books and buy most 4E hardcovers but no adventures, miniatures, and very little gimmicks (tiles, cards, etc)--so probably about half of the new line. My co-DM buys probably about a quarter to a third of the line, and the rest only own the Player's Handbook. In other words, I alone spend about half the money that the entire group of eight spends, and the two DMs spend more than the other six players. I think this is, while purely anecdotal, representative of the general trend in the RPG community. In other words, about 10-20% of the population are spending 50-70% of the money.

 

[Cadfan]

I'd take it to mean that most 4e players were at one time 3e players, but the reverse is not so.

 

[DaveMage]

I'd take it to mean that most 4e players were at one time 3e players, but the reverse is not so.

Yep.

This originated as a 3E fan site, so naturally most of the people here will have played (and enjoyed) 3E at some time.

 

[Crothian]

It means internet polls are for entertainment purposes only

 

[Barcode]

Exactly. I won't say I hate my old Mac SE, but I won't use it regularly again. If someone had one fired up and was playing Wizardry, I'd give it a shot for a few minutes, fondly remembering how much fun I had with that game, and then go back to playing something newer.

The numbers are not stunning. They are quite logical. It is sad, though absolutely predictable, that the 4e haters are going to try to use my fond rememberance of 3e to run down 4e and WotC. 4e is a much, much better game.

 

[mach1.9pants]

LOL yeah Crothian.

As an aside someone like Mike Mearls is obviously a hard core DnDer. I was surprised for him to basically say 'our modules are crap' on the Open Design podcast. He said that he likes his adventures to be more involved with roleplaying and stuff. And WotC modules don't deliver... hell that is true! But that is WotCs target market, the dungeon bashers rather than role players. And I think that the whole 4E is designed around that. I don't mind cos, as a wargamer, I like the tactical side.

However I think those that think about and discuss their RPGs are less likely to be dungeon baser types and more likely to be roleplyaer types.. thus we have a preponderance of more pro 3E than the market out there.

I know you can RP with any system but 4E (and especially WotC modules) is tactics focused IMO.

So that is why I think all the web polls I have seen are weighted towards 3E even if the market share is not.

M1.9P's 2cp

 

[BryonD]

I'd take it to mean that most 4e players were at one time 3e players, but the reverse is not so.

Which stated in different terms would say: 4E lost more 3E players than it gained non-3E players

 

[Herremann the Wise]

It means internet polls are for entertainment purposes only

I actually disagree with this. I think the trends in both those polls were significant enough to be deserving of notice and not slapped with the "iNterweB Polz" tag.

4E has polarized (anti-bell-curved) a significant number of the EN World population which itself is a significant representation of the hard core side of the hobby. 3E is skewed in favour of the positive (although statistically speaking the trend is actually negatively skewed but heh...us mathematicians can be a little backwards sometimes). It could mean that the majority of EN World was accepting or in favour of 3e and then a significant number of these were completely turned off by the new edition. I suppose what I'm saying is: is that while the repercussions of this might be insignificant for WotC (the majority of their patronage would seem to positively view the new edition), the polls still represent something significant here at EN World. They have both meaning and value.

Best Regards
Herremann the Wise

 

[Crothian]

I actually disagree with this. I think the trends in both those polls were significant enough to be deserving of notice and not slapped with the "iNterweB Polz" tag.

Unless someone is going to do a T-test or other statistics on these polls they are pretty much meaningless.

 

[Kafen]

So that is why I think all the web polls I have seen are weighted towards 3E even if the market share is not.

Trends in the existing social networks do not always match the trends for the emerging markets. The poll data is valid as a direct reflection of En World on that level.

You could argue that the poll data and drift of most poll data indicates a general trend on the Internet - the publishers are not generating enough new 4e users to overwhelm the old market trends. But, I do not believe this is the case. The numbers from the DDI network bit indicate that the number of users are high enough to generate huge virtual peer groups. So, where is the energy going? I am tempted to say that WOTC is wasting the energy of the virtual market by removing PDF sales at this time and locking DDI users into the Brand-only social networks, lackluster/buggy forums, and limiting sales with the not so great GSL. So, I think the poll data merely reflects the active energy among active gamers in effective networks. The real numbers are good for 4e on the sales end, but the poll trends show that WOTC is failing in the social climate within the virtual environment.

That would be my take on the trends of poll data...from this site and other sites including my own networks.