4.33 Years in: What Now for 5E? (and have we reached "Peak Edition?")

[Parmandur]

OK, this all makes sense and is sound reasoning. My only caveat would be, "as of now." Things can and do inevitably change, and the PHB presumably won't continue to sell as well as it is. Furthermore, they can probably eek more dollars out of people by coming up with an "expanded and revised PHB" - a 5.2 version of the book that doesn't invalidate or replace the 2014 version, but improves upon it. That would be the conservative view of what "6E" looks like, but it also could be 3-4 years out rather than the 50th in 2024.

As for evergreen, I'm thinking this is primarily about the game itself - the name brand, what D&D "is." Certainly having relative consistency with the rules is an important aspect of evergreen-ness, but there can still be subtle changes. The game can and should evolve, but it doesn't need to be radical changes we've seen in some of the past editions.

The specific example he has used for a model is Settlers of Catan: consistent core rules, thematic tie in releases (my copy is Catan: Ancient Egypt for instance).

In terms of rule evolution over time, I think AD&D and WotC D&D are neither applicable models: look instead to BD&D. Holmes to Moldvay to Mentzer to Rules Cyclopedia. That's about the level of change I think we will see, when they update rules.

He was *very* adamant that they will not do a "revised" rulebook. To the extent that he is saying the Ranger variants he is tooling with will probably be released for free.

 

[delericho]

I find the release of the new Gift Set to be highly symbolic. Each previous edition has had some sort of new set of core rulebooks - be it just new cover art (1st ed), an entirely new layout (2nd), or a rules revision (3.5e, Essentials). And in every case it has seemed that the edition has then been marching towards its end - there have still been some significant books to come, but the new edition has been just over the horizon.

In which case, the new edition might be 2022, or thereabouts.

Or, perhaps more likely: I just don't know.

On the one hand, if things carry on as they are, I would expect some sort of major new release for the 50th anniversary - with a new edition being a likely candidate. On the other hand, it's possible that D&D is reliving its 'fad' days and/or sitting in a big bubble of 80s nostalgia, and those things tend to end pretty quickly. So it could be that this time next year D&D has just been cancelled in its entirety. Those, I think, are the two extreme cases, with reality likely somewhere in the middle. But where exactly in the middle, I don't really know.

 

[Ralif Redhammer]

It’s honestly difficult to imagine how things could get even bigger from here on out, but it’s certainly possible. Like if the proposed D&D movie is 1 – actually good and 2 – financially successful.

But that doesn’t mean it’s going to decline any time soon. They’ve been extra-careful to shepherd the brand, and I think it’s paid off. I think this current era is quite sustainable.

Also, the present circumstances in this four-year cycle are far different from past editions. There’s no looming Satanic Panic of the 80s, no Vampire the Masquerade taking a bite (ahem) out of profits and audience in the early-to-mid 90s, no divisive “half edition” release in the 00s, and no Pathfinder essentially continuing the past edition and outstripping D&D in sales like in 4e.

 

[Stalker0]

and no Pathfinder essentially continuing the past edition and outstripping D&D in sales like in 4e.

Well Pathfinder does have its 2nd edition coming out, so we will see. That said, Pathfinder 2.0 and 5e look markedly different than 3.5 vs Pathfinder 1.0 did, so I have a feeling its less direct competition.

 

[ad_hoc]

2 approaches to answering the question; popularity and game satisfaction.

Popularity: Not even close. Each year it is gaining sales over previous years. Keep in mind that even if it were to have fewer sales in one year than the previous that is still the game becoming more popular as long as new players coming in are greater than people leaving.

Game Satisfaction: Maybe. Is D&D 5e the best game it will be right now? Maybe. There are like 10 Tieflings right now plus more if we count mixing and matching variants. That isn't good for the game. The more alternate abilities we get the more watered down the identities of those races and classes are. So is this the best the game is going to be? Maybe, I think we are getting close to it at any rate.

 

[Guest 6801328]

Honestly they could just shutter the company and we could happily continue playing D&D for decades.

 

[lowkey13]

*Deleted by user*

 

[Inchoroi]

I think the game is doing fine; there are some holes, but for the most part its doing well. The latest two adventures, Dragon Heist and Dungeon of the Mad Mage, probably won't do as well as previous offerings, I would guess. I hope that they realize its because of the content, rather than the length--that is, Mad Mage isn't that good of an "adventure," as most megadungeons aren't (this is coming from a guy who worked on several in the last year), because of what it is, not that we don't want adventures that go all the way to higher levels, like 17-20.

 

[Parmandur]

I think that your assertions make sense, and you back them up well, but ...

Mearls is just an employee. An important one, but just an employee.

Dungeons and Dragons is just a brand of WoTC (not even their most important one), and WoTC is just a wholly owned-subsidiary of Hasbro.

In 2017, Hasbro earned $5.21 billion dollars in net revenue. D&D is not even their biggest "gaming" category (it doesn't compare to, say, Monopoly).

All of this means is that, to a certain extent, it would just take one person in the overall hierarchy saying, "Hey, let's make some more money. Maybe if we release a slightly tweaked edition ..." and all of Mearl's desires mean nothing.

IMO, the best chance for 5e to stay "evergreen" is the licensing of the IP as a source of revenue and for continued growth. So, hope a movie does well and people keep buying the core books.

Agreed.

El Presidente of WotC is himself actually a gamer at this point, in addition to a trained and experienced businessman, which probably will help mitigate overly silly decisions in regards to the game as long as the business remains solid. The winds seem to be in Mearls favor at the moment, and he has spent literally years building the business case against edition churn with the current team.

I honestly think we are in unparalleled waters for the game, with little in terms of precedent to go on.

 

[Charlaquin]

Well Pathfinder does have its 2nd edition coming out, so we will see. That said, Pathfinder 2.0 and 5e look markedly different than 3.5 vs Pathfinder 1.0 did, so I have a feeling its less direct competition.

Pathfinder 2e, unfortunately, has a major identity crisis. It’s wavering between wanting to make itself approachable to new players, and wanting to retain an existing fan base that revels in complexity, and it shows. I do think it’s going to push WotC to up their game, but I don’t think it’s going to drive anything close to an edition change.