I was discussing Keith's post with my 4e DM, after reading it, I was not so certain that Keith's math adds up either, and only takes into account best case scenarios. In addition to Stalker0's assessment of the actual probabilities based upon the numbers Keith and the Skill Challenge system are using I had some concerns myself. This is pretty much what I said to my DM -
Let me address some of his points ( by section):
"At first level, a player will typically have a score of +9-11 with a trained skill"
Ok, assuming that you only train skills which you have a positive modifier, 1-5 points for Stat, +5 for training, that's +6-10, that makes 20 DC even more difficult. If a character has (at first level) something much better than a +10, then they should be good at succeeding.
"...you can choose to reward creative action by applying a -2 to +2 modifier to the check"
Ok, that's +4-12, that makes 20 DC still pretty improbable, just because someone chooses a creative and interesting way to use their skill, it does NOT mean that their creative method is actually the way that is helpful to success.
"Every ally who successfully aids you gives you a +2 to your check, to a maximum of +8."
Ok, at best +12-20, however you have to assume that every party member isn't trained in every skill, +8 every time seems to be a reach at best, DC10 for aid another is going to fail a fair amount with untrained skills for a long while. Real numbers for a 5 person party would probably look more like +5 (on average), and could still be +4-20. Everyone isn't trained in all skills, and every group isn't going to include 5 characters.
"Master of Deceit ... Astral Voice ... Beguiling Tongue ... Crucial Advice"
Ok, these are not an examples of the 2nd level skill affecting utility poweres, its the whole list, these powers mostly only help with a limited array of skills.
"...the challenge to you is to find a way to bring one of your trained skills to bear on the challenge...."
Ok, this is where Keith's post really begins to loose me as valid, at this point, we already ARE talking about trained skills, and someone with Skill Focus SHOULD have a good chance of success, even with Skill Focus, at best +15-23 (not counting utility powers). For a 5 player group with a good idea bonus, and all the Aid Another you can legally squeeze out, with a high stat skill, and Skill Focus, there's still a depressingly large chance of failure (at least at the low end).
"As a DM, are you taking into account any of the PC's abilities when making the encounter?"
Ok, wow, that's REALLY contrary to my basic DMing philosophy. In my mind the challenge that is there is what's there, and the PCs have to deal with it using their skills, but yes, there should be additional situational modifiers to your success, at least as many as as there are to succeed in combat. Not to mention the effect this has on pre-printed adventures.
"Skill challenges should be challenging."
Agreed, to a certain extent, but we were only looking at the numbers for a median challenge, the Hard Challenges become depressingly unlikely.
"Partial Success ... Action Points ... Critical Success."
All of these are House Rules, but sound like they should have been incorporated into the rules themselves, and are all good thoughts. The idea, especially of "critical success", is already part of combat, it seems appropriate to non-combat as well.