delericho
Legend
I think you do the edition war far too much credit. 4e has lasted longer than 3.5 did - and a lot longer than 3.0 did.
I think your dates may be off.
3.0e was released in 2000
3.5e was released in 2003
4e was released in 2008
So, 3.5e lasted 5 years, while 4e has lasted 4 so far. (And that's assuming you don't consider Essentials a substantive revision on a par with 3.5e.)
They just need more if they are ever to make that $50 million/year target.
I really hope they're no longer operating under that requirement. I don't see how they can possibly hope to achieve it - the DDI was the most likely route to that, but seems to have fallen short in 4e, and I don't see how 5e is going to do significantly better - not least since they haven't said anything about their intentions for DDI with 5e.
And I'm sure there will be a D20 retroclone of 4e using OGL-released material and reverse engineering. Same way the other retroclones work. It just needs something to coalesce the fanbase on. (On rpg.net I mostly jokingly suggested Paizo should make one to force WotC onto the back foot with 5e - and it would be a jackpot for any other game company).
I hope you're right. Unfortunately, my gut feeling is that if anyone tries it and makes any sort of a success of it, they'll have to be very careful about the legal stuff, of they'll face the Wrath of the Lawyers. Because a good 4e retroclone stands to be the second-biggest competitor to 5e (after Pathfinder), and while there's nothing WotC can do about Pathfinder, you can bet they would go after a 4e clone if they had any grounds.
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