Adventuring day - stats>

[slobo777]

Inspired by this thread: http://www.enworld.org/forum/new-ho...zombies-series-contrived-fights-now-orcs.html and just because I could . . .

The basic idea is to figure out what a "daily challenge" might look like, and how different player choices affect it.

It's very early days yet. Probably the numbers coming out don't say a lot about real games, but I'm posting this to get basic feedback.

The software simulates a very simple "adventure". A character (the dwarf build from the linked thread) must travel through tunnels which are guarded at points by hobgoblins. The dwarf can decide at any point to give up (by default losing the adventure) or to keep on going to try and get to the end.

To determine a fair challenge, a first wave of 1000 "timid" dwarves are sent into an open-ended version of the adventure, to see how far they get before they want to take an extended rest (or if they die, assuming they would have turned back after the previous encounter). This sets the number of encounters suitable for those characters.

Then to test the adventure, we send three lots of 1000 dwarves which are "timid", "brave" or "foolhardy" and see how the adventure pans out. The point is that these personalities represent player choice in the adventure (it's boring, but hey it's not a railroad!) Players can choose to play it safe, or risk all death-or-glory.

What I am interested in is how this very simple player choice affects the different outcomes, and whether it is possible to build an adventuring day's worth of encounters (for DMs like me that like to set up a "roll game" and play it how it the dice fall). The toolkit it also suitable for exploring all sorts of "what if" tweaks to the game (e.g. "What if xp values were halved? What if monster hit points were doubled?")

The different dwarf types are:

• timid uses hit dice when only slightly injured (below 13hp for 1st-level). Gives up when has no hit dice left (even if at full hit points0
• brave uses hit dice when at half or less hit points (below 10hp for 1st level). Gives up when has no hit dice left and at or below half hit points
• foolhardy uses hit dice when injured and there is no chance of wasting a high roll. Never gives up - death or glory!

My first set of results are:

Adventure: Hobgoblin Gauntlet. A series of encounters with individual hobgoblins.

Setting number of encounters, (based on 1000 timid dwarves): 6

Adventure results for 1000 timid dwarves:

Died: 107
Ran away: 468
Completed adventure: 425
​

Adventure results for 1000 brave dwarves:

Died: 122
Ran away: 198
Completed adventure: 680
​

Adventure results for 1000 foolhardy dwarves:

Died: 178
Ran away: 0
Completed adventure: 822
​

I have more stats (such as state of health of the dwarves that completed the adventure). But initially I'd just like feedback on whether this is comprehensible or would be at all useful - assuming it could be expanded to more meaningful size of party and encounters.

 

[the Jester]

I have more stats (such as state of health of the dwarves that completed the adventure). But initially I'd just like feedback on whether this is comprehensible or would be at all useful - assuming it could be expanded to more meaningful size of party and encounters.

It is definitely comprehensible.

I don't know if I would personally find it useful, as I'm not too in to crunching numbers, but I suspect a lot of other folks would.

I do think this is awesome and would love to see more of it.

If I don't comment much on this thread for the next couple of weeks it's largely because of Burning Man, not lack of interest.

 

[Bow_Seat]

Nevermind.

Multi Log regression wont work. There are too many endogenous variables, and I don't know how to account for the auto-correlations caused by surviving combat.

 

[KidSnide]

I'd be curious to see how the numbers change if you raise or lower the number of encounters and compare that to DM recommendations. How rare is failure if the adventure only lasts four encounters? How rare is success if the adventure is 7 or 8 encounters?

Likewise, it would be interesting to see how the outcomes change if you keep the xp total the same, but increase the difficulty of the encounters. For example, what if there are three encounters of 2 hobgoblins each? Or, if you have four 1 hobgoblin encounters followed by one 2 hobgoblin encounters?

-KS

 

[slobo777]

Duplicate

 

[slobo777]

I'd be curious to see how the numbers change if you raise or lower the number of encounters and compare that to DM recommendations. How rare is failure if the adventure only lasts four encounters? How rare is success if the adventure is 7 or 8 encounters?

Those tweaks tweaks are easy:


Adventure: Hobgoblin Gauntlet. A series of encounters with individual hobgoblins.

Arbitrarily setting number of encounters, (for KidSnide): 4

Adventure results for 1000 timid dwarves:

Died: 77
Ran away: 328
Completed adventure: 595
​

Adventure results for 1000 brave dwarves:

Died: 76
Ran away: 91
Completed adventure: 833
​

Adventure results for 1000 foolhardy dwarves:

Died: 74
Ran away: 0
Completed adventure: 926

​

--

Adventure: Hobgoblin Gauntlet. A series of encounters with individual hobgoblins.

Arbitrarily setting number of encounters, (for KidSnide): 8

Adventure results for 1000 timid dwarves:

Died: 125
Ran away: 600
Completed adventure: 275
​

Adventure results for 1000 brave dwarves:

Died: 165
Ran away: 307
Completed adventure: 528
​

Adventure results for 1000 foolhardy dwarves:

Died: 280
Ran away: 0
Completed adventure: 720

​

I'm not sure about comparing to DM guidelines right now. WotC's numbers are IMO way off in the current playtest doc (that will be my feedback anyway). In addition, the one-on-one adventure is a bit of an outlier, and the dwarf seems designed to beat it.

The other encounter tweaks you suggested, supporting more than one character on either side, are my next major change to the code. Following that I am going to need to support choices in actions, and basic monster traits (I chose a single hobgoblin mostly because its traits don't come into play in one-on-one fights)

 

[slobo777]

Progress report - I can now run many-vs-many, but only in a mosh-pit style where each character attacks a randomly chosen enemy. I'm looking to add choices of who to attack, and with which in-character options next.

Bob, Bill and Barney are of course 3 dwarf fighters all built the same way (Survivor/Slayer), and always using CS die for Deadly Strike.

Start adventure: Hobgoblin challenge.
  The first fight versus hobgoblins.
    Initiative
      Hobgoblin C [ rolls 13 ]
      Hobgoblin D [ rolls 13 ]
      Hobgoblin B [ rolls 10 ]
      Bob [ rolls 9 ]
      Bill [ rolls 8 ]
      Barney [ rolls 3 ]
      Hobgoblin A [ rolls 3 ]

    Round 1
      Turn: Hobgoblin C
        Hobgoblin C attacks Barney
        Critical! [Roll 20]
        Hobgoblin C does 10 damage to Barney.

      Turn: Hobgoblin D
        Hobgoblin D attacks Bob
        Hit. [Roll 14 + 2 = 16 vs 16 AC]
        Hobgoblin D does 6 damage to Bob.

      Turn: Hobgoblin B
        Hobgoblin B attacks Barney
        Miss. [Roll 4 + 2 = 6 vs 16 AC]

      Turn: Bob
        Bob attacks Hobgoblin B
        Miss. [Roll 1, automatic miss]

      Turn: Bill
        Bill attacks Hobgoblin D
        Hit. [Roll 9 + 6 = 15 vs 14 AC]
        Bill does 15 damage to Hobgoblin D.
        Hobgoblin D is dead.

      Turn: Barney
        Barney attacks Hobgoblin A
        Hit. [Roll 12 + 6 = 18 vs 14 AC]
        Barney does 13 damage to Hobgoblin A.
        Hobgoblin A is dead.

    Round 2
      Turn: Hobgoblin C
        Hobgoblin C attacks Bill
        Hit. [Roll 17 + 2 = 19 vs 16 AC]
        Hobgoblin C does 4 damage to Bill.

      Turn: Hobgoblin B
        Hobgoblin B attacks Bill
        Hit. [Roll 15 + 2 = 17 vs 16 AC]
        Hobgoblin B does 5 damage to Bill.

      Turn: Bob
        Bob attacks Hobgoblin B
        Miss. [Roll 1, automatic miss]

      Turn: Bill
        Bill attacks Hobgoblin C
        Miss. [Roll 2 + 6 = 8 vs 14 AC]

      Turn: Barney
        Barney attacks Hobgoblin C
        Hit. [Roll 17 + 6 = 23 vs 14 AC]
        Barney does 16 damage to Hobgoblin C.
        Hobgoblin C is dead.

    Round 3
      Turn: Hobgoblin B
        Hobgoblin B attacks Barney
        Miss. [Roll 9 + 2 = 11 vs 16 AC]

      Turn: Bob
        Bob attacks Hobgoblin B
        Hit. [Roll 14 + 6 = 20 vs 14 AC]
        Bob does 10 damage to Hobgoblin B.

      Turn: Bill
        Bill attacks Hobgoblin B
        Miss. [Roll 6 + 6 = 12 vs 14 AC]

      Turn: Barney
        Barney attacks Hobgoblin B
        Hit. [Roll 13 + 6 = 19 vs 14 AC]
        Barney does 16 damage to Hobgoblin B.
        Hobgoblin B is dead.

    End of encounter
      Bill took 9 damage, and has 9 hit points remaining
      Bob took 6 damage, and has 12 hit points remaining
      Barney took 10 damage, and has 8 hit points remaining

  Short rest.
    Bill spends hit die to heal 2. Bill now has 11 hit points.
    Barney spends hit die to heal 5. Barney now has 13 hit points.

  The second fight versus hobgoblins.
    Initiative
      Bob [ rolls 18 ]
      Hobgoblin A [ rolls 18 ]
      Hobgoblin B [ rolls 16 ]
      Hobgoblin D [ rolls 15 ]
      Barney [ rolls 3 ]
      Bill [ rolls 3 ]
      Hobgoblin C [ rolls 1 ]

    Round 1
      Turn: Bob
        Bob attacks Hobgoblin D
        Hit. [Roll 15 + 6 = 21 vs 14 AC]
        Bob does 14 damage to Hobgoblin D.
        Hobgoblin D is dead.

      Turn: Hobgoblin A
        Hobgoblin A attacks Barney
        Miss. [Roll 1, automatic miss]

      Turn: Hobgoblin B
        Hobgoblin B attacks Bob
        Miss. [Roll 4 + 2 = 6 vs 16 AC]

      Turn: Barney
        Barney attacks Hobgoblin B
        Hit. [Roll 17 + 6 = 23 vs 14 AC]
        Barney does 9 damage to Hobgoblin B.

      Turn: Bill
        Bill attacks Hobgoblin C
        Hit. [Roll 9 + 6 = 15 vs 14 AC]
        Bill does 20 damage to Hobgoblin C.
        Hobgoblin C is dead.

    Round 2
      Turn: Bob
        Bob attacks Hobgoblin B
        Hit. [Roll 19 + 6 = 25 vs 14 AC]
        Bob does 16 damage to Hobgoblin B.
        Hobgoblin B is dead.

      Turn: Hobgoblin A
        Hobgoblin A attacks Bob
        Miss. [Roll 8 + 2 = 10 vs 16 AC]

      Turn: Barney
        Barney attacks Hobgoblin A
        Hit. [Roll 14 + 6 = 20 vs 14 AC]
        Barney does 12 damage to Hobgoblin A.
        Hobgoblin A is dead.

      Turn: Bill
        Bill cannot see an active enemy

    End of encounter
      Bill took 0 damage, and has 11 hit points remaining
      Bob took 0 damage, and has 12 hit points remaining
      Barney took 0 damage, and has 13 hit points remaining

  The third fight versus hobgoblins.
    Initiative
      Bob [ rolls 16 ]
      Hobgoblin C [ rolls 16 ]
      Hobgoblin D [ rolls 14 ]
      Hobgoblin B [ rolls 11 ]
      Barney [ rolls 10 ]
      Bill [ rolls 8 ]
      Hobgoblin A [ rolls 1 ]

    Round 1
      Turn: Bob
        Bob attacks Hobgoblin C
        Hit. [Roll 10 + 6 = 16 vs 14 AC]
        Bob does 12 damage to Hobgoblin C.
        Hobgoblin C is dead.

      Turn: Hobgoblin D
        Hobgoblin D attacks Bill
        Miss. [Roll 7 + 2 = 9 vs 16 AC]

      Turn: Hobgoblin B
        Hobgoblin B attacks Bill
        Miss. [Roll 3 + 2 = 5 vs 16 AC]

      Turn: Barney
        Barney attacks Hobgoblin D
        Critical! [Roll 20]
        Barney does 21 damage to Hobgoblin D.
        Hobgoblin D is dead.

      Turn: Bill
        Bill attacks Hobgoblin A
        Miss. [Roll 5 + 6 = 11 vs 14 AC]

      Turn: Hobgoblin A
        Hobgoblin A attacks Bill
        Hit. [Roll 14 + 2 = 16 vs 16 AC]
        Hobgoblin A does 5 damage to Bill.

    Round 2
      Turn: Bob
        Bob attacks Hobgoblin A
        Hit. [Roll 17 + 6 = 23 vs 14 AC]
        Bob does 14 damage to Hobgoblin A.
        Hobgoblin A is dead.

      Turn: Hobgoblin B
        Hobgoblin B attacks Bill
        Miss. [Roll 1, automatic miss]

      Turn: Barney
        Barney attacks Hobgoblin B
        Hit. [Roll 16 + 6 = 22 vs 14 AC]
        Barney does 13 damage to Hobgoblin B.
        Hobgoblin B is dead.

      Turn: Bill
        Bill cannot see an active enemy

    End of encounter
      Bill took 5 damage, and has 6 hit points remaining
      Bob took 0 damage, and has 12 hit points remaining
      Barney took 0 damage, and has 13 hit points remaining

  Short rest.
    Bill spends hit die to heal 8. Bill now has 14 hit points.

The heroes completed the adventure.

 

[Patryn of Elvenshae]

Nice!

 

[slobo777]

Following one of the playtest packet's recommendation for adventuring day - two tough encounters (3 L1 Dwarf Fighters vs 3 Hobgoblins each encounter). The injury categories I made up, but hopefully "one dwarf died" is obvious. And "not a scratch" really does mean no single PC took damage.

aAdventure results for 20000 teams of timid dwarves:

  TPK:                   0%

  Defeated:             11%
       two dwarves died       0%   (1% of defeated)
         one dwarf died       2%   (20% of defeated)
      moderate injuries       1%   (8% of defeated)
         light injuries       8%   (71% of defeated)

  Completed adventure:  89%
         one dwarf died       3%   (3% of completed)
      moderate injuries       4%   (4% of completed)
         light injuries      68%   (76% of completed)
          not a scratch      15%   (17% of completed)


Adventure results for 20000 teams of brave dwarves:

  TPK:                   0%

  Defeated:              3%
         one dwarf died       2%   (77% of defeated)
      moderate injuries       0%   (10% of defeated)
         light injuries       1%   (13% of defeated)

  Completed adventure:  97%
         one dwarf died       3%   (4% of completed)
      moderate injuries      10%   (10% of completed)
         light injuries      69%   (71% of completed)
          not a scratch      15%   (15% of completed)


Adventure results for 20000 teams of foolhardy dwarves:

  TPK:                   0%

  Defeated:              0%

  Completed adventure: 100%
         one dwarf died       6%   (6% of completed)
          badly injured       1%   (1% of completed)
      moderate injuries      16%   (16% of completed)
         light injuries      63%   (63% of completed)
          not a scratch      14%   (14% of completed)

This is still based on a very simplified combat model. But I think it matches other reports of the standard difficulty level being moderately easy. I am defining "light injuries" for an individual dwarf as they are on at least 2/3 hit points and have one hit die remaining.

Note we're getting character death just over 1 time in 20 though . . . (and these dwarves are tough cookies for 1st level characters). Edit: I haven't added the full PC dying rules, which will probably change that significantly.

 

[Rhenny]

Your research is really interesting. Playing the game, our group has found that monsters don't hit enough. If you have time, how do the results change if the monsters gained an extra +2 to hit? In our group, we feel like that provides a more interesting threat level for the PCs.