another rpg industry doomsday article (merged: all 3 "Mishler Rant" threads)

GMSkarka

Explorer
In the end I just have to ask - why do you guys care so much to get so worked up over it?

Because this industry has a long-standing problem of people, many of them well-intentioned, holding forth in public without much in the way of real knowledge... and forum readers believing them, because they're 'insiders'.

This can actually have a knock-on effect -- a bit like a run on a bank (less drastic, to be sure, but just as real), where sales can be effected because of the pervading mood that things are on a downturn. Believe it or not, but people tend to purchase more if they feel that their purchases will be supported going forward by a healthy industry. If they're convinced (because they heard it from people who "should know") that its not healthy, they're less likely to purchase.


It's not his opinion which is the problem -- opinions are like... Well, you know.

It's that he supports his opinion with "facts" which are flat-out wrong (and in some cases, perhaps even purposefully misleading), and gamers might believe him (leading to very real impact on business) unless those errors are pointed out.
 

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coyote6

Adventurer
More importantly, As an original LBB'er and OSR fan who also totally digs 4E, who do I get pi$ off at at now?.. Paizo??? White Wolf?? Which Bandwagon do I jump on?

I think White Wolf is okay.

Wait, no -- Ethan Skemp, Werewolf developer and White Wolf employee, posts here frequently, and mentions how much fun he's having playing D&D 4e. Dang.

Well, there's always video and computer games. (Though you should make sure you've played them before attempting to describe the way they play. One never wants one's negative rants to come off as ignorant to anyone who's ever played, or even watched an episode of Attack of the Show or X-Play.)
 

JohnRTroy

Adventurer
To me, PDFs are worthless other than as an easy way to browse through a book. I don't have a laptop, and I find it annoying to read through PDFs on my desktop computer. I usually just buy the books instead.

Yes, but people are missing the whole point of the essay saying that, while customers think PDFs are "worth less" (or "worthless"), that does not change the fact that there are certain fixed costs to publishing and it's not just the cost of printing and warehousing. Just because people are cheap doesn't mean that it makes sense to lower prices.

This can actually have a knock-on effect -- a bit like a run on a bank (less drastic, to be sure, but just as real), where sales can be effected because of the pervading mood that things are on a downturn. Believe it or not, but people tend to purchase more if they feel that their purchases will be supported going forward by a healthy industry. If they're convinced (because they heard it from people who "should know") that its not healthy, they're less likely to purchase.

On the other hand, James has a lot of knowledge from what I've seen, and I see attempts to debunk him as akin to people who don't want to hear negative news about their product--even if its true--because they don't want the stock price to go down. I see this a lot, being a fan of XM Radio and how things went crappy and stock holders thinking things are fine, say anything negative and tons of stock holders come into message boards complaining of bias.
 

seskis281

First Post
Because this industry has a long-standing problem of people, many of them well-intentioned, holding forth in public without much in the way of real knowledge... and forum readers believing them, because they're 'insiders'.

This can actually have a knock-on effect -- a bit like a run on a bank (less drastic, to be sure, but just as real), where sales can be effected because of the pervading mood that things are on a downturn. Believe it or not, but people tend to purchase more if they feel that their purchases will be supported going forward by a healthy industry. If they're convinced (because they heard it from people who "should know") that its not healthy, they're less likely to purchase.


It's not his opinion which is the problem -- opinions are like... Well, you know.

It's that he supports his opinion with "facts" which are flat-out wrong (and in some cases, perhaps even purposefully misleading), and gamers might believe him (leading to very real impact on business) unless those errors are pointed out.

See I don't get this part of the argument. James does have experience and does have some interesting facts - could his perceptions of the meaning of these be wrong? Sure. He also has the facts that he's been exposed to, which don't include everything and are certainly an incomplete picture - but that's true of every single post or opinion that uses "facts" regardless of how inside or outside someone is, and he supplements these with his guesses and anecdotal evidence - which he even SAYS is anecdotal... so it comes back to just someone voicing their concerns and opinions, and people jumping on it.

Does James Mishler have biases for and against games and business models? Of course he does. So do Erik Mona, Monte Cook, Andy Collins, Mike Mearls, Jim Ward, myself, and every person, known and unknown, who come here. For instance, thecausaloblivian slammed James pretty strongly during this, so looking at something he said on a forked thread:

My response to this thread brings up an interesting point. In the current tabletop RPG world, alternatives to mainstream D&D are at a low ebb. Aside from White Wolf chugging along as the number 2 publisher, doing its own thing as always, what is really selling outside of 4E? 3PP 4E books aren't, outside of Goodman being modestly successful selling adventures. The OGL has slowed down considerably. Indie games and non-d20 systems are barely on the radar. Most people who haven't switched to 4E are playing old games. Either retro clones of a previously released game(and I would include Pathfinder in this), older editions of D&D, or playing older games that haven't been updated recently. A few blips here and there, but not a lot. There's 4E, and White Wolf puts out new games for their system, but outside of that, nothing new is really happening.

Now, these are assertions and opinions. Where's the facts to support? (Erik'll probably be upset at the "other than 4e and White Wolf nothing's happening...." guess Paizo's not doing anything....) But, they are just as valid for him to make as James. Lots of people post with assertions and arguments ensue over the merits of points made. Causal has every right to make assertions, just as James does.

What bothers me is this: GMSkarka especially said this is "dangerous" when people who have some "experience" as "insiders" make assertions - this means the more someone has had in experience the more their assertions are dangerous and need to be squelched? The further outside the better when making claims about the RPG community?

You don't have to agree with James. You don't even have to ignore - it's quite possible to have a solid debate on the specifics of the arguments and his assertions.

What bothers me, and it seems to be a real problem here and on many message boards, is that people who disagree immediately turn to personal attacks and denegration to "knock down" those that voice opinions they disagree with.

;)
 

GMSkarka

Explorer
On the other hand, James has a lot of knowledge from what I've seen

...which means, I suppose, that you're ignoring the factual errors that have been pointed out, over and over again, both here and on his blog entry.

I'm not talking opinions -- he's welcome to those. I'm talking about verifiable *fact* (such as his incorrect view of the state of POD production, for example, or his bizarre ideas regarding the word rates of mainstream writing, or his perhaps-purposeful conflation of trade paperbacks with mass market paperbacks in order to make his point about inflation, etc.).

He "has a lot of knowledge", sure -- it's just that a good amount of it is wrong.


However, based on your posts here and on his blog, it's pretty obvious that you've made up your mind, so I guess there's not much point in further discussion.
 

GMSkarka

Explorer
What bothers me is this: GMSkarka especially said this is "dangerous" when people who have some "experience" as "insiders" make assertions - this means the more someone has had in experience the more their assertions are dangerous and need to be squelched? The further outside the better when making claims about the RPG community?

No, that's not what I'm saying at all.

I'm saying that when you speak from a position of authority, you bear the responsibility of that authority.

Really, that's not a radical concept.



To use an exaggerated example to show you what I mean: Opinions regarding medicine coming from, say, a Registered Nurse are going to be given a lot more weight that those coming from Joe the Plumber (although maybe not, in some circles -- but I digress).

As such, the RN should be a lot more careful about what they say, because they're speaking with authority about the subject.


Clearer?
 

ggroy

First Post
Interesting quote in a comment by BlackDiamond, who runs an FLGS.

Adventures in Gaming: The Doom of RPGs: The Rambling

2) Usability. My thoughts on RPG products are that a LOT of them were being bought, pre recession, as interesting reading or source material for OTHER games. I think this type of material is something around 30% for our store (about $75k/year in RPGs). When economic times are hard, this spending is cut sharply and we learn who is really playing what. My guess is some publishers have seen their sales grind to a screeching halt and may not know why. I wonder if this is a more universal trend and if anyone has noticed this?
 

carmachu

Explorer
To me, PDFs are worthless other than as an easy way to browse through a book. I don't have a laptop, and I find it annoying to read through PDFs on my desktop computer. I usually just buy the books instead.
Same here...I have a ton of PDF's from Piazo from subscriptions but I never use them. Their a nice add on, but they have no value to me.
 

ggroy

First Post
No, that's not what I'm saying at all.

I'm saying that when you speak from a position of authority, you bear the responsibility of that authority.

Really, that's not a radical concept.



To use an exaggerated example to show you what I mean: Opinions regarding medicine coming from, say, a Registered Nurse are going to be given a lot more weight that those coming from Joe the Plumber (although maybe not, in some circles -- but I digress).

As such, the RN should be a lot more careful about what they say, because they're speaking with authority about the subject.


Clearer?

A lawyer can be disbarred for giving misleading or outright wrong legal advice.
 

Part of teh orignial author's problem is that he equates the PDF and hardcover book as having the same value. They arent, and dont. I dont value a PDF the same as a actual book. I dont think anyone does.
As I pointed out in the blog comments, as a matter of fact Paizo values PDF at 70% of printed price. Green Ronin values them at 55%. Malhavoc at generally 57%.

Now, those are publishers, but they are also successful publishers and Green Ronin and Paizo at least have pretty stable PDF prices, so (this is a logic leap due to a lack of sales info) I would presume they are happy with their PDF sales. So, when looking for actual facts, I'd say that the market valuing PDFs in the 55-65% of print price range is probably pretty accurate and stable.

I am a bit saddened by how Erik Mona came into this so strongly. I've never met him but have always enjoyed his writings and his opinions. I understand an impetus to defend one's company, but all James did was say he didn't like the approach being taken by Paizo on the pdf pricing for the Pathfinder rulebook. Coming back with a bit of namecalling and denegrating James on a personal level strikes me as a bit off... James Mishler's blog and opinion is a threat to the Pathfinder release?
Well, I was surprised at how strongly Erik came on as well, but to be fair James didn't just say that he didn't like Paizo's approach, he claimed that the PFRPG PDF was going to start a "Race to Zero" and pretty much decimate the PDF market. That seems a fair bit more harsh than "I don't like it". If someone accused your company and their biggest project in years as the harbinger of doom to an entire market, well, I can understand some emotion from Erik.

It's also an utterly unfounded argument. As I probably rambled too long in response to his 2nd post, he's looking at a single data point and claiming it's the beginning of a trend, while ignoring the overall stability of PDF to print pricing across years and dozens of products.

Not only is it bad statistics, but it's also bad logic. And having gotten half way to a PhD in philosophy, bad logic hurts me. ;)
 

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