Artificial Intelligence and the future of Human Endeavor

[Umbran]

But the AIs it builds won't be.

But the things it discovers won't be.

And then it can go ahead and learn things that humans never even imagined, that being kind-of the point of us wanting to make it.

Consider that, in the vastness of what appears to be an infinite universe, humans are not going to be the only sentient species. So, there are already things built, discovered, and learned that aren't built, discovered, and learned by humans.

At every step of history, some of us hold tight to the idea that somehow, Humans have some special position in the universe. And, in each step of that history, we have learned a new way in which that isn't true.

The thing we have to come around to is... that's okay. The hubris that we have a special position has generally caused more pain than healing, because that "special" becomes "superior" - and feeling superior allows one to cause harm without care. We can do without that, really.

So, if some other entities come by that can also build, discover, and learn, that should not be seen as a problem.

 

[Umbran]

. a lot of people depend on "purpose" as a part of their psycological wellbeing.

Well, right now, they do. But, is that a necessary state, or is it one that has been drilled into us because we are still in a society that knows scarcity, and therefore defines human worth by the work we do?

If, over the generations of such a shift, we can gradually unlearn that need, there is no problem.

 

[Umbran]

First of all, I should say that I don't think AI will ever becomes "sentient" - not in the way that organic beings are.

Though, honestly, anyone who fears AIs taking the space of humans should want them to be sentient like us. You know why? Because that means they will have wants and desires, like us.

Which means that they will not universally want to do our scut work, so that leaves space for us to still do some of it.

 

[MarkB]

Did you mistype that AGI? AIG is a supermarket chain.....

Artificial General Intelligence. The thing most people envision when they hear "AI", rather than the glorified data-sifters the term is commonly applied to by corporations.

 

[dragoner]

This year saw a real push of AI into the general marketplace. With things like AI artwork now a reality, AI that can write simple stories, and even AI that can code all coming to a forefront this year... AI is moving quickly from sci-fi to reality.

What does the future of Human endeavor look like in such a world?


The "New Industry" model doesn't work anymore
Anytime people get concerned about automation and AI, the most common retort is "just like when robots replaced us in the industrial revolution and we moved to service jobs, there will be all sorts of new jobs for humans to do in the future, jobs we can't even dream of yet."

I think this is a fallacy in the new paradigm.

Will there be new jobs and industries, absolutely, 100%. They just won't be done by humans. At the end of the day, all labor ever created has two components, a physical and a mental one. Robots largely replaced human physical labor during the industrial revolution, so humans moved to more mental jobs. Well now AI is started to take over the mental side....and once they can do that as well (or nearly as well) as a human.....what's left?

Sure there will be new jobs, and perhaps for a little while humans will do them. Until someone teaches an AI to do it (or the AIs are smart enough to just learn it themselves), and then once again that job will belong to the machines. And that window will close over time, as AIs get better and faster, it will come to a point where new industries would have to be created constantly to keep humans employed....and eventually AIs may learn so quickly even that wouldn't be viable anymore, it would be economically better not to have humans do it at all, but wait a short timespan and let the AIs take it on.

You don't need to replace ALL jobs to have major disruption
Another common retort is, "people still do physical jobs in the post robot world, there will still be jobs". And that is true, its unlikely every single human on the planet would be jobless. But even if just 10% of the market was taking over by machines....that is still a MASSIVE disruption. That is still more unemployment than we have seen since depression times, its a massive shakeup in the economy and people's way of life.

What do humans do in a post labor society?
Now lets assume we get over the hump. We transition into a world where AI does all the main work, and humans now have infinite luxury. That sounds pretty good right?

However, there is a problem....what do humans actually "do" in that society? Creative jobs....AI once sophisticated enough could generate songs, poems, artwork so beautiful it would likely dwarf anything a human could generate. Exploration of teh galaxy, eh machines can do that better to. Lounge about all day and do nothing?.... a lot of people depend on "purpose" as a part of their psycological wellbeing. Without an endeavor that has meaning (whether its for the good of society or just to increase your wealth)...I fear that many humans would flounder, suicide rates would increase, depression would skyrocket.

Most people need something to do... so how does it work in a world that no longer needs them to do anything?


Is Chess the Savior of Humanity?
So far I've painted a pretty bleak picture, but I think chess may offer us the light of hope.

Chess is a scenario where the AI has already "won". There is not a Grandmaster alive that can beat even a stock standard chess computer you could get on your phone. There is literally no reason for humans to play chess, we "suck" compared to machines. And yet.... people do play chess. We have grandmasters that are famous and respected for doing something "that technically has no value".

Perhaps in a world where all labor is taken over by AI, humans will simply create purpose. Just as we play chess even though there is no reason too, we will continue to paint, create, tell stories etc. Not because our work is better than an AIs (it won't be), but because we are creators at heart, and will continue to create for ourselves and others....even in a world without need of it. Some have argued purpose has always been a construct of the mind....no reason it cannot continue to be in an AI driven world.

Years ago another engineer and I were laughing that AI would take our jobs, and they work at argonne labs. It's not really true though, humans will still be in the loop, if only to be culpable; however I see most AI as tools. Neither of us is a westerner so maybe we are used to more technology driven change? I don't know. Similar to digging a ditch, heavy equipment simply allows one to do more, faster; and I think this is what future engineers will use it to do. For me and others being document generators has had some security, though also I know that there was a day when a computer was a job description.

 

[MGibster]

I don't think many, if any, of us on this board will see that day. Some here, me included, have said they'll probably never be able to retire. We'll work until we can't anymore. Hopefully AI will have grown enough to be able to tend to our needs in the end. I want my android nurse to look like Gal Gadot.

Some of us have already seen it come. In another thread, I mentioned Fukoku Mutual Life Inurance who fired 34 full time equivalent employees and replaced them with IBM's Watson Explorer. We're not too far from a future where insurance companies eleminate the majority of their actuary teams as it will mostly be done by computers. I imagine a few data analyst positions will be eliminated throughout many industries as well. A few years back, my company eliminated every assistant position at the company except for executive assistants. With Outlook and other technologies, their services were largely redundant. And whenever they get around to getting AI to drive vehicles, the trucking industry will adopt it which will eliminate roughly 2,000,000 jobs in the United States alone. Historically, truck driving has been a fairly good occupation allowing Americans with little to no education to make a decent living (that has become less true in recent decades though).

Now I'm not going to argue the sky is falling. But these kind of changes will have short term costs even if the long term benefits are worth it.

 

[MGibster]

AI wrangler? Can I wear a cowboy hat and chaps?

At this point it's required.

Indeed, and so what exactly does the AI need humanity for at all? We just take up space, pollute, and consume, when looked at from the highest level.

They'll keep us around as pets.

 

[Umbran]

I imagine a few data analyst positions will be eliminated throughout many industries as well.

There's a couple different aspects to data analysis. One is crunching the numbers - and sure, computers are better than we are at that. No data analyst does anything by hand any more. But, there's also the aspect of figuring out what questions to ask. And that's going to need a human for the foreseeable future.

Now I'm not going to argue the sky is falling. But these kind of changes will have short term costs even if the long term benefits are worth it.

Yeah. Just ask all the folks in the Buggy-whip Maker's Union. "I want everything to be better, but I don't want anything to change," is pretty much a non-starter.

 

[MGibster]

There's a couple different aspects to data analysis. One is crunching the numbers - and sure, computers are better than we are at that. No data analyst does anything by hand any more. But, there's also the aspect of figuring out what questions to ask. And that's going to need a human for the foreseeable future.

As with many "trades," I suspect you'll just end up with fewer employees in the role.

Yeah. Just ask all the folks in the Buggy-whip Maker's Union. "I want everything to be better, but I don't want anything to change," is pretty much a non-starter.

Yeah. But like I said, there's always a short term cost. At least with data analyst, a lot of them have skills that will be helpful in other areas. It's not like coal miners who really have little else to turn to with their current set of skills.

 

[Umbran]

Yeah. But like I said, there's always a short term cost.

I know. I'm just kind of poetically noting there's a cost to not changing - the status quo isn't free, either.