College Football 2007-2008

[drothgery]

After I'd pretty much given up on the football season, the Orange went out and beat Louisville today. Cool.

 

[John Morrow]

They had the week off but so far so good for Rutgers in the Big East.

R.U., Rah, Rah;
R.U., Rah, Rah,
Whoo-Rah, Whoo-Rah;
Rutgers Rah

Up Stream Red Team
Red Team Up Stream
Rah, Rah, Rutgers Rah

 

[Crothian]

After I'd pretty much given up on the football season, the Orange went out and beat Louisville today. Cool.

that has to make their season right there.

 

[LightPhoenix]

that has to make their season right there.

If Louisville had played a decent game, maybe, but the defense was just awful.

That said, hopefully this will be a morale boost for Syracuse that will propel them to some better playing.

 

[Lewis526]

A thoughtful question for everyone, but particularly the SEC fans:

How many losses will the SEC champion have going into the bowl season, and will anything less than undefeated give them a shot at the BCS championship? (Yeah, Auburn fans, I know what you're thinking, and you'd be preaching to the choir.)

Imagine, for example, that the loser of the LSU - Florida game wins the conference championship game. Could a one-loss SEC champion go to the BCS title game two years in a row? Or will that loss be too late in the season for that team to climb back up the rankings? Or will we have another year when an undefeated champion from the SEC (or any conference, for that matter) loses the postseason popularity contest to two other undefeated teams?

Having to ask these questions makes me really support a playoff system. The teams deserve to know what they have to do to get their chance. I'd most prefer to see a playoff between the champions of the 5 "major" conferences plus a few at-large bids, but if it takes a "plus-one" system to phase in a playoff, then I'll support that as well. Anything that diminishes the influence of the BCS's computer algorithms, or that keeps coaches from thinking they have to grandstand to get voted into the title game, is good for the sport. NCAA football shouldn't be at the mercy of journalists and computer algorithms.

 

[drothgery]

A thoughtful question for everyone, but particularly the SEC fans:

How many losses will the SEC champion have going into the bowl season,

Probably two. My guess is that LSU and Florida each lose a random game to someone else, then split the regular season matchup and the SEC title game. I usually predict the SEC champ will lose two games. It seems a reasonable guess. When you've got a conference where either almost no one bothers to play offense (if you're a Pac 10/Big East fan) or they play great defense (if you're an SEC/Big Ten fan), you get a lot of close games, and when you've got a lot of close games, sometimes you get upsets.

and will anything less than undefeated give them a shot at the BCS championship?

It depends what everyone else does. Of the current top 5, Oklahoma's probably got the best chance of going undefeated; right now, it'd be shocking for them to lose a regular season game to anyone other than Texas, and they're going to be decent-sized favorites over Texas.

I think the way to bet is that the SEC champ probably can't jump a BCS conference team with a better record for the title game, but probably will jump one with the same record unless it's Southern Cal. It's pretty likely that if there are two or fewer undefeated BCS conference teams, they will make the title game, even if it's (to pick the most unikely example possible from current major conference unbeatens) UConn and Kansas.

BCS teams that look they could very well go undefeated, but could get jumped by a one-loss SEC / Pac 10 champ (and possibly by a one-loss West Virginia, assuming that they didn't have a head-to-head win):
Boston College or Clemson from the ACC
Rutgers or South Florida from the Big East

Imagine, for example, that the loser of the LSU - Florida game wins the conference championship game. Could a one-loss SEC champion go to the BCS title game two years in a row?

More often than not, at least one of the participants in the BCS title game had a loss going in. Matches between two undefeated teams ala USC/Texas 2005 are very, very rare things. I'd guess, all things being equal, the pollsters would break ties among one-loss teams in this order...

1. Southern Cal
2. SEC champ
3. Oklahoma/Texas
4. Ohio State
5. West Virginia
6. non-USC Pac 10 Champ
7. non-Ohio State Big Ten champ
8. ACC champ
9. non-OK/TX Big 12 champ
10. non-WVU Big East champ
11. non-BCS undefetaed team (actually, probably would need a two-loss advantage)

Or will we have another year when an undefeated champion from the SEC (or any conference, for that matter) loses the postseason popularity contest to two other undefeated teams?

I'm still not quite sure why SEC fans are so bitter over that. Yeah, Auburn probably should have been there instead of Oklahoma. No, it would not have mattered. Nobody was beating that USC team short of an NFL team. And didn't SC rather convincingly beat down Auburn the year before and the year after?

I'd most prefer to see a playoff between the champions of the 5 "major" conferences plus a few at-large bids,

Six major conferences. You do remember what happened the last time a Big East team played an SEC team in a BCS game, right? Unless you're talking about kicking the ACC to the curb, then that's alright...

 

[Lewis526]

I'm still not quite sure why SEC fans are so bitter over that. Yeah, Auburn probably should have been there instead of Oklahoma. No, it would not have mattered. Nobody was beating that USC team short of an NFL team. And didn't SC rather convincingly beat down Auburn the year before and the year after?

...

Six major conferences. You do remember what happened the last time a Big East team played an SEC team in a BCS game, right? Unless you're talking about kicking the ACC to the curb, then that's alright...

I agree strongly with most of what you said, but I have to reply to the two paragraphs above.

First, and most importantly, I think it's total sophistry to claim that USC was unbeatable in 2004. Auburn might not have been able to beat them, but no mortal is wise enough to legitimately make the claim without seeing the teams match up on the field. Hell, USC only beat Stanford by a field goal that year, and Stanford finished the year 4-7. They also beat UCLA by only 5, and beat Cal by only 6. Which of those teams was within a touchdown of the NFL? Why would you give Auburn less chance than them? Sure, USC beat Auburn 20-0 in '03, but Auburn's much weaker '03 team had four other losses. (I don't really have the stats memorized - I looked them up on ESPN. )

How many of us, last year, could've predicted Florida's dominance over Ohio State? Tons of people were saying that it didn't matter who OSU played: the game was just a formality, and OSU was unbeatable. Ouch. The fact of the matter is that we can't know unless we see the true contest. That's all Auburn fans, or Boise State fans, or any of the several shafted schools, wanted.

I might even make the case that USC was stronger in '03, when they beat Auburn in Auburn's weaker season. That was the year that USC got shafted out of the BCS title game, and had to settle for splitting the title of "champion" with LSU. The difference between '03 and '04 for USC was that in '03 they lost their one close game, but in '04 they won their several close games.


Second, and much more lightheartedly, I don't mean to kick anybody to the curb. I just miscounted the "major conferences": SEC, Big Ten, Pac-10, Big East, Big 12, and ACC make 6. If I'm going to dump on one of those, though, I'd dump the Big 12 before the ACC (no offense to Oklahoma or Texas, but you just don't have much competition right now).

 

[AnonymousOne]

Motion that Virginia Tech is terribly overrated? Being from VA I'm sick of all the moaning over VT. They have yet to show a consistent bowl performance record.

EDIT: For the record I am not a UVA student.

 

[Ankh-Morpork Guard]

How many of us, last year, could've predicted Florida's dominance over Ohio State?

Yo.

 

[Lewis526]

Correction: How many of us, last year, [who don't live in Gainesville] could have predicted Florida's dominance over Ohio State?