Conjecture and Prognostication concerning "The Rouse"

[Umbran]

I think you underestimate the likelihood of current edition sales drop that would occur with a new edition confirmation and how much that sales drop would matter to WotC.

I thought we were taking about the danger of "taking secrets to a new employer" not the danger of "revealing secrets to the general public".

No non-compete clause will prevent what you're suggesting here. An NDA would, but holding that kind of information back from a new employer does not compromise his value to the new employer.

 

[ggroy]

(A hypothetical example).

If Scott Rouse was hired by Paizo or White Wolf, I'm not entirely sure what confidential WotC secret information he would have that would give Paizo or White Wolf a significant competitive advantage over WotC.

 

[Mark]

Several local FLGS owners mentioned to me that sales of 3.5E D&D and a lot of 3PP books completely "fell off a cliff" shortly after 4E was announced in August 2007.

Indeed. And any information shared at a new place would likely filter out quickly to the general public, particularly if it could harm the competition. Once a secret is out and those who heard it had no obligation to keep it, it would spread.

I thought we were taking about the danger of "taking secrets to a new employer" not the danger of "revealing secrets to the general public".

No non-compete clause will prevent what you're suggesting here. An NDA would, but holding that kind of information back from a new employer does not compromise his value to the new employer.

Of course, it does. How much can you trust someone who would sell out their previous employer? And, yes, I mention both NDAs and non-compete clauses above. Anyway, cue the contrarian . . .

 

[ggroy]

Indeed. And any information shared at a new place would likely filter out quickly to the general public, particularly if it could harm the competition. Once a secret is out and those who heard it had no obligation to keep it, it would spread.

Let's say for the sake of argument that several recently canned disgruntled WotC D&D employees decided to say publicly say that there exists a "top secret" 5E D&D PHB already partially written. How much would this leak drastically affect the sales of upcoming 4E books?

Offhand I would guess that the least affected 4E title due to such a leak, would perhaps be PHB3.

 

[Hadrian the Builder]

A couple things here:

1) I doubt the existence of an NDA or a non-compete agreement. WotC is not the kind of company with valuable trade secrets to protect, and I believe there's a history of former employees starting their own businesses or working for other gaming companies already. Am I correct?

2) Even if there was a 5e team, its still going to be 1-2 years before it makes any difference for the majority of the customers, I think.

3) Not only are we speculating on what Scott Rouse may be doing for his next job, now we seem to also be speculating on restrictive covenants that probably don't exist? Doesn't this seem to be leading to tin-foil hat land?

 

[Mark]

I doubt the existence of an NDA or a non-compete agreement.

http://www.enworld.org/forum/general-rpg-discussion/7021-sean-reynolds-let-go-2.html#post103325

NDAs and non-competes, particularly that extend beyond being let go or leaving a company, are fairly standard stuff and do indeed happen at WotC.

Even if there was a 5e team, its still going to be 1-2 years before it makes any difference for the majority of the customers, I think.

As has been pointed out above, the knowledge of a new edition being readied can kill the current edition. That's also fairly well understood.

 

[ggroy]

2) Even if there was a 5e team, its still going to be 1-2 years before it makes any difference for the majority of the customers, I think.

This would depend on how similar 5E will be to 4E, such as the similarities of 2E to 1E AD&D.

Allegedly the 4E team started active work in early 2005. With 4E drastically different than 3E, perhaps it's not too surprising that it took almost three years of "top secret" work to have a finished product.

Going back further into history, the earliest mention of 2E AD&D that I could find offhand is in the January 1987 issued of Dragon Magazine (#117) on pages 90-91. Around two years afterward, the 2E AD&D PHB was finally released.

 

[Umbran]

Anyway, cue the contrarian . . .

Mark, failing to agree with you does not make one "a contrarian". And trying to label me as such is a really insulting and dismissive tactic. Please don't do that again.

 

[ggroy]

As has been pointed out above, the knowledge of a new edition being readied can kill the current edition. That's also fairly well understood.

For the case of 1E -> 2E AD&D, I'm not quite sure that the market completely "fell off a cliff" like what happened for 3.5E -> 4E after August 2007.

Back in the late 1980's, I didn't even know there was a 2E AD&D being made until I saw it in a bookstore in 1989. Though in those days, I didn't regularly read Dragon Magazine and most of my friends didn't either.

If one examines what 1E AD&D products were released in 1987 and 1988, some were relatively popular such as:

- Forgotten Realms setting "grey box"
- Manual of the Planes
- Dragonlance Adventures (hardcover)

For the BECMI D&D box sets, around ten modules were released during 1987.

For 1988, I probably will agree that the product lineup was somewhat on the lackluster side for both 1E AD&D and BECMI.

The only explanation I can think of as to why 1E AD&D and BECMI didn't completely fall off a cliff shortly after the announcement of 2E AD&D in Dragon Magazine (#117) in January 1987, was that the information didn't spread as quickly compared to today. Today with information spreading really quickly on the internet, I wouldn't be surprised if even casual players heard about the 4E announcement in August 2007 or shortly thereafter.

 

[Destil]

Oh, and PennyArcade is here, but I don't know if they have employees.

Wait, didn't PA have a post a few months back that they were looking for someone for a position that would be speciously close to 'Brand Manager'?